Systemic Risk and Financial Markets - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

뉴욕연방준비은행 총재의 미하원 금융서비스위원회 증언 내용
Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

July 24, 2008. Timothy F. Geithner, President and Chief Executive Officer



"... The U.S. and global financial systems are going through a very challenging period of adjustment. The critical imperative today is to help facilitate that adjustment and to cushion its impact on the broader economy. The forces that made the system vulnerable to this crisis took a long time to build up, and the system will need some time to work through their aftermath.

Looking forward, the United States will have to undertake substantial reforms to the framework of policy, regulation and oversight of the financial system. There was a case for reform before this crisis. The regulatory framework in the United States was designed in a different time for a very different type of financial system than the one we have today. Nonetheless, many observers believed that this framework, although messy and complex, worked reasonably well. It is harder to make that case today.

..."

출처: Systemic Risk and Financial Markets - Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

business oligarch: Information and Much More from Answers.com

"Business oligarch is a near-synonym of the term 'business magnate'. The choice of the word oligarch denotes the significant influence such wealthy individuals may have on the life of a nation. However, in modern Russia it is very common to apply this term to any business tycoon, regardless of whether or not he has real political power.[1] The term came into wide circulation after the collapse of the Soviet Union, in reference to those individuals who acquired tremendous wealth in some post-Soviet republics. ..."

출처: business oligarch: Information and Much More from Answers.com:

Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky: Information and Much More from Answers.com

미하일 호도르코프스키: 전 유코스(Yukos) 회장

Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky: Information and Much More from Answers.com:

츨처: Business Biographies: Mikhail Khodorkovsky (1963–)

• Former chairman and chief executive officer, Yukos Oil Corporation
• Nationality: Russian.
• Born: June 26, 1963, in Moscow, USSR.
• Education: Mendeleev Institute of Chemical Technologies, BA, 1986.
• Family: Son of a construction worker and a production engineer; married twice; children: four.
• Career: Menetep Bank, 1989–1993, president; Russian Ministry of Fuel and Energy, deputy minister, 1993–1994; Rosprom, 1994–1996, chief executive officer; Yukos Oil Corporation, 1996–2003, chairman and chief executive officer.
  
  Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the world's 16th-wealthiest person in 2004, rose from the ashes of the Soviet Union to become the richest of the 'oligarchs,' the hyperwealthy billionaires who rapidly gained control of Russian industry during President Boris Yeltsin's anything-goes privatization of Soviet-era assets. The former Communist Youth League activist bought Yukos Oil Company for a pittance in 1995, but hardball tactics raised the ire of shareholders, foreign banks, and Western partners. Khodorkovsky responded by making Yukos the most transparent of Russian companies, further increasing his wealth. Accompanying that wealth was a growing interest in Russian politics; in October 2003 Khodorkovsky was jailed, charged with embezzlement, theft, and tax evasion by Russian authorities. Khodorkovsky and his supporters blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin, and fear of the oligarch's political influence, for the arrest."

Should We Still Support Untrammelled International Capital Mobility? Or are Capital Controls Less Evil than We Once Believed?

J. Bradford DeLong, The economists' voice(2004) Berkeley electronic press

Fifteen years ago, I found it easy to be in favor of international capital mobility — the free flow of investment financing from one country to another. Then, it was easy to preach for an end to the systems of controls on capital that hindered this flow.

"Why not free up capital flows, to encourage large-scale lending from the world's rich countries to the world's poor countries?" I, and others, asked. Such lending, we hoped, might cut a generation off the time it would otherwise have taken developing countries' economies to catch up to the industrial structures and living standards of wealthier countries.

More than a century ago, large-scale borrowing and lending had played a key role in the economic development of the late-nineteenth century temperate periphery of Canada, the western United States, Australia, New Zealand, Chile,Argentina, Uruguay, and South Africa. Why shouldn't it similarly benefit twentieth century developing countries?

This reasoning seemed compelling then. Today, however, it is much harder for me to support untrammelled international capital mobility. I am no longer as sure that capital flows are efficient. Too many external costs associated with financial crises, and the fact that capital seems to want to flow not from, but to, where it is already abundant, make me fear that my standard economist’s model is simply not working.

Worse yet, even if capital flows are efficient, it seems increasingly likely that these flows could benefit rich people from poor countries at the expense of the countries themselves — including their poor. Thus, lifting capital controls—far from helping the world's poor, as many had hoped — may actually hurt them. ...
(continued on: Should We Still Support UntrammelledInternational Capital Mobility? Or are CapitalControls Less Evil than We Once Believed?)

※ 메모: 방문자 등록을 하면 무료로 이 소론을 볼 수 있다.

Business Spectator - UK housing market pain grows(1:34 AM, 30 Jul 2008)

우울한 경제다. 영국에서도 주택 시장이 죽고 있단다. 소매 매출도 "몇년 만에 최저치"라는 꼬리표를 구태여 달어서 울울한 서민들을 더 우울하게 만드는 표현이 언론에 나타나는 모습이 보인다. 흔히 경기체감지수를 설명할 때, 설문조사 기법을 활용해서 "소비자들이 지갑을 열고 있다거나, 닫아건다"는 최근의 돈 씀씀이에 대한 여유로움을 측정하는데, 우리나라뿐이 아니라 미국도 그렇다고 하고 아래 링크에서 보도되어 있듯이 영국도 그런 모습이다. 일종의 "타산지석"으로 내 씀씀이를 되돌아보는 수박에 별 도리가 있으랴.

뭔 타산지석이냐고요? 아껴야 하겠다는 생각입죠.

LONDON -- Approvals for British home loans in June hit their lowest since records began and retail sales fell at their fastest pace in at least a quarter century as a housing market downturn threatens to derail the whole economy.The Bank of England said on Tuesday that mortgage approvals -- loans agreed but not yet made -- fell last month to 36,000 from 41,000 in May, pointing to further sharp falls in house prices in the months ahead.Approvals in the three months to June stood at just 134,000, well below the 191,000 low recorded in the fourth quarter of 1992 when Britain was in the middle of the last housing slump.Retailers are suffering. The Confederation of British Industry's monthly retail sales balance fell to -36, its weakest since the survey began in 1983, as sales of white goods, furniture and carpets collapsed. ...

Business Spectator - UK housing market pain grows

Why more authors should be blogging | Books | guardian.co.uk

예전 학창 시절에 지금 무엇을 "하고 있는 중"이란 뜻으로만 영문법책에서 배웠던 현재진행형과는 달리, 화자가 행위 그 자체의 중요성을 강조하기 위해 쓰는 "be+V-ing"의 용례들을 찾아보다가 아래와 같은 어느 영국 작가의 블로그 글을 만났다. 작가들은 자신의 글을 꼭 책으로만 전달해야 한다는 고정관념에서 벗어나라는 취지의 글이다. 상당히 공감이 가는 글로 보인다. 더불어서 해외 작가들이 블로그를 어떻게 쓰고 있나 알 수 있도록 링크도 달려 있다. 지적 재산권에 연연하지 말고 개방적 네트워크에 과감히 공개하면 독자들과의 공감 네트워크가 오히려 새로운 가치 를 만드는 길이 될 것이라는 메시지로 읽힌다. 웹 2.0이 담고 있을 개방주의와 네트워 증폭의 여러 가지 모습에 대해 알고 싶다는 생각도 하게 됐다.

Why more authors should be blogging

Writers needn't be wary of giving words away for free - a blog merely raises interest in your published work
July 10, 2008 10:00 AM


As an author, I've always seen my blog as much more than an online diary. It's about keeping in regular contact with your readers and giving them something extra. Ultimately, it's a brilliant and beneficial marketing tool."

I'd go as far as saying that in today's marketplace, a blog is a necessity for any writer, and the very nature of being published means you're already one step ahead of the game. In order to get published in the first place there's a requirement for your book to be a little bit different from the rest, and if you can capture some of this uniqueness in the blog, it can only help to raise awareness of you and your work.
I'm disheartened, though, that there's only a handful of British authors really making the most of blogging. Of course, we can't all have the clout of Neil Gaiman, but you can definitely find your niche and create a following. In this instance, American authors seem to be one step ahead of us, and doing it much more creatively too. There are the straightforward personal blogs, such as that of Holly Black, joint creator of the Spiderwick Chronicles. Then there are those blogs created solely to promote the launch of a book, like this one by Dennis Cass (check out his fabulous viral marketing video on how to launch a book in the world of Web 2.0.). But more importantly, there are the American authors being creative in order to stand out from the masses.

One of my favourites is Shrinking Violet Promotions - a prime example of how to write a blog about a specific subject to widen your audience. Coming from two writers' experiences in publishing, its main aim is to provide marketing advice for new writers. (계속. 출처: Why more authors should be blogging Books guardian.co.uk)

삼일신고(三一神誥)

▷ 환단고기 태백일사본:

帝曰 爾五加衆1)
蒼蒼非天 玄玄非天 天無2)形質 無端倪 無上下四方
虛虛空空 無不在 無不容

神3)在無上一位 有大德大慧大力 生天 主無數世界
造兟兟物 纖塵無漏 昭昭靈4)靈 不敢名量
聲氣願禱 絶親見 自性求子 降在爾腦5)
天神國 有天宮 階萬善 門萬德
一神攸居 羣靈諸哲6)護侍 大吉祥 大光明處 惟性通功完者 朝永得快樂

爾觀森列星辰 數無盡 大小明暗苦樂 不同
一神造羣世界 神勅日世界使者 舝七百世界
爾地自大 一凡世界 中火震盪 海幻陸遷 乃成見像
神呵氣包底 煦日色熱 行翥化游裁物 繁殖

人物同受三眞 惟 衆迷地 三妄着根 眞妄對作三途
曰性命精 人全之 物偏之
眞性善無惡 上哲通
眞命淸無濁 中哲知
眞精厚無薄 下哲保
返眞一神

曰心氣身
心依性 有善惡 善福惡禍
氣依命 有淸濁 淸壽濁夭
身依精 有厚薄 厚貴薄賤

曰 感息觸 轉成十八境
感 喜懼哀怒貪厭
息 芬란寒熱震濕
觸 聲色臭味淫抵

衆 善惡淸濁厚薄相雜 從境途任走 墮生長소病歿苦
哲 止感調息禁觸 一意化行 改妄卽眞 發大神機 性通功完是

▷ 발해석실본:

帝曰 元輔彭虞
蒼蒼非天 玄玄非天 天無形質 無端倪 無上下四方
虛虛空空 無不在 無不容

神1)在無上一位
有大德大慧大力 生天 主無數世界
造甡甡物 纖塵無漏 昭昭靈靈 不敢名量
聲氣願禱 絶親見 自性求子 降在爾腦

天神2)國 有天宮 階萬善 門萬德
一神攸居 羣靈諸哲護侍 大吉祥 大光明處 惟性通功完者 朝 永得快樂

爾觀森列星辰 數無盡 大小明暗苦樂 不同
一神造羣世界 神勅日世界使者 舝七百世界
爾地自大 一丸世界 中火震盪 海幻陸遷 乃成見象
神呵氣包底 煦日色熱 行翥化游栽物 繁殖

人物 同受三眞 曰性命精 人全之 物偏之
眞性無善惡 上哲通
眞命無淸濁 中哲知
眞精無厚薄 下哲保
返眞一神

惟 衆迷地 三妄着根 曰心氣身
心依性 有善惡 善福惡禍
氣依命 有淸濁 淸壽濁殀
身依精 有厚薄 厚貴薄賤

眞妄對作三途 曰感息觸
轉成十八境
感 喜懼哀怒貪厭
息 芬란寒熱震濕
觸 聲色臭味淫抵

衆 善惡淸濁厚薄相雜 從境途任走 墮生長소病歿苦
哲 止感調息禁觸 一意化行 返妄卽眞 發大神機 性通功完是

※주석 붙은 글자들: 지금 안 쓰는 한자여서 다른 한자로 바꾸어 타이프한 글자다.
※ 내가 다 아는 내용을 홍보하는 게 아니라, 가끔씩이라도 눈여겨보면서 공부할 글이다. 틈틈이 적은 것들이어서 잘못 보고 적은 실수가 있을 수 있다.
※ 시공을 초월해 영원하게 참된 세 가지 것(삼진三眞: 性과 命과 精)을 참된 것과 헛된 것이 널려 대작하는 삼도(三途: 感과 息과 觸)의 이 지상에서 수련하면서 삼가(三家: 心과 氣와 身)를 가꾸어 삼진을 다시 찾아 하나로 반진일신함이 삶이라는 알림이 삼일신고의 뜻이라고 지금은 공부하고 있다. 공부는 계속되리라..

금융시장을 보는 눈: 제도와 가설, 군중과 정책, ...

▷ 존 로(John Law):

• John Law: 1671-1729, New School for Social Research
• Fraser Hosford, John Law, Monetarist or Keynesian?
• Antoin E. Murphy, JOHN LAW THE FINANCIAL INNOVATOR
• Considérations sur le numéraire et le commerce, 1705
  (영문 번역 텍스트: Money and Trade Considered with a Proposal for Supplying the Nation with Money)
• Pour prouver qu'une nouvelle espèce de monnaie peut être meilleure que l'or et l'argent, 1707

▷ 찰스 멕케이(Charles Mackay):

• 군중의 미망과 광기(Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, 2nd edn. 1852), 1841

▷ 월터 배젓(Walter Bagehot):

• Walter Bagehot, 1826-1877 : New School for Social Research
• LOMBARD STREET: A Description of the Money Market, 1873. (New School for Social Research 제공)

▷ 존 메이나드 케인스(John Maynard Keynes)

• Keynes The Speculator
  “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
• Concentrated and Balanced Portfolios

▷ 하이먼 민스키(Hyman P. Minsky)

• Financial Instability Hypothesis, 1992
• FINANCIAL MARKETS MELTDOWN: What Can We Learn from Minsky?, L. Randall Wray, Public Policy Brief No. 94, 2008, The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
• The Economic Contributions of Hyman Minsky: Varieties of Capitalism and Institutional Reform, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & L. Randall Wray, 2007년 12월
• ..

▷ 여러 가지 소론들의 사이트, 블로그

• http://www.kaushikbasu.org/
• ..

▷ 나심 니콜라스 탈렙(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

• How bank bonuses let us all down (Financial Times, 24-Feb-2009)
• Bystanders to this financial crime were many(Financial Times, 07-Dec-2008)
• We Don't Quite Know What We are Talking About When We Talk About Volatility (Daniel Goldstein, Nassim Taleb, March 28, 2007)
• ..

▷ 한번 살펴볼 만한 소론들

• Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis (Yuliya Demyanyk, Otto Van Hemert, February 29, 2008)
• How You Finance Goldman Sachs' Profits: An insider's view of Wall Street’s rebound (Naomi Prins, MotherJones, Jul. 28, 2009)
• 
  

어느 독서: 공감하는 즐거움

어느 구절을 읽다가 공감하는 대목을 만나면 반갑고 즐겁다. 이미 내 안에 씨앗이 있던 생각을 만나는 즐거움일 것이다. 인간은 그렇게 "서로 되울리는 감정"을 갈망하는 존재일지 모른다. 얼마 전에 읽었던 구절인데, 문체나 소재가 평소에 다루던 것들이 아니다.

그런데 섬유와 의류를 둘러싸고 전 세계의 곳곳이 물려서 돌아가는 산업에 대한 이야기인데, 무언가 우리가 몰랐던 내용을 가지고 메시지를 전한다. 상품 진열장에서 만나는 여러 가지 옷가지가 갖가지 상표로 화장을 하고 소비자 앞에 나타나기까지 세계 곳곳에서 면화송이를 따고, 실을 잣고, 그밖에 디자인과 무역규제와 같은 요소들이 구체적인 사람들과 어떤 관계를 맺고 있는지가 차근차근 풀려가는 이야기를 통해 드러난다.

가격이야 몇 십만원이든 몇 만워이든 천차만별이지만 그 옷가지가 시장에 나오는 그 사연 속에 인간의 모습이 드러나는 이야기 같다. 현대 자본주의의 영원한 화두, 바로 시장과 인간에 대한 이야기다.

• [... ...] The balance is needed everywhere, on every level. "Nature itself is probably the best analogy for looking at how to be inspired creatively, and how to check the rules," Scott says. "Nature has a lot of rules; if you pay attention, there's wisdom there. It's an important example, because a lot of ecosystems are out of balance, or abused, or in danger."
  
  "Art, fashion, music," Scott believes, "[these have] the emotional connection to so many important things, like science. The failure of scientists to communicate climate change is because they don't have a way to tell the story. People miss the origin of the fiber, how far things travel to get to them." For him, fashion tells these stories, and many others as well. The garment industry and its own vast, imbalanced, imperiled, impervious ecosystem, connected as tiny living parts of a massive industry, the story underneath the skin. A picture, he likes to think, of "what everyone's doing and thinking in the world. ..."
  

이 책의 분위기만 좀 느껴보려다가 이 구절을 다음과 같이 옮겨봤다. 잘 옮긴 것인지 모르겠지만, 좀 더 효과적인 흐름의 짧은 문장과 수식 관계가 경제적인 어구들로 정제할 수 있다면 좋겠다.

• [이렇게 곳곳에서 진행되는 일과 세세한 무역 규칙이 톱니바퀴처럼 서로 물려서 돌아간다.] 모든 지역과 모든 차원에서 균형이 맞아야 한다. 스코트의 말이 이어진다. "창의적인 영감이 필요하거나 갖가지 규칙을 따져봐야 할 때, 그 실마리를 찾으려면 자연을 있는 그대로 눈여겨보는 태도가 필요하다. 자연에는 수많은 규칙들이 숨어 있고, 잘 살펴보면 거기에 지혜가 있다. 그렇게 발견하는 지혜는 중요한 것이다. 왜냐하면 우리를 둘러싼 생태계에서 균형이 깨져 있거나, 남용되고 있고, 위험에 처한 곳들이 수없이 많기 때문이다.
  
  스코트는 이렇게 생각한다. "예술과 패션, 음악에는 감정이 개입되는 중요한 측면들이 많다. 과학도 마찬가지다. 과학자들이 기후변화 문제에서 사람들의 공감을 얻지 못하는 것은 그 문제를 전달할 이야기를 찾지 못하기 때문이다. 오늘날 사람들 눈에는 섬유가 어디에서 나오는 것인지 그 근원도 보이지 않고, 갖가지 물건이 얼마나 먼 길을 거쳐서 그들 앞에 나타나는지도 보이지 않는다." 다른 분야에도 이런 이야기는 많겠지만, 패션은 그에게 이런 이야기다. 의류 산업이 자리 잡고 있는 광대한 생태계는 물이 지표로 스며들지 못하는 불투수면(不透水面)은 늘고 균형이 무너진 위험한 상태로, 이 산업과 함께 얽혀 있다. 산업과 생태계를 잇는 수많은 작은 고리들이 살아 움직이면서 이 거대한 산업을 지탱하고 있다. 겉에서는 보이지 않는 이 산업의 숨은 이야기들이 그 속에 있다. 스코트는 그 이야기들이 "이 세계에 사는 모든 사람들의 행동과 생각"을 담아내는 그림이라고 느낀다.

Impervious Surfaces: Review of Recent Literature(Georgia Coastal Research Council)

Impervious Surfaces: Review of Recent Literature,
Christine Tilburg and Merryl Alber,
Georgia Coastal Research Council


※ memo:

• ... Urban growth, both inland and at the coastal zone, puts many stresses on the physical, chemical, and biological resources of the environment. One of the most obvious results of development is the introduction of impervious surface.
• Impervious surface consists of manmade coverings of the natural landscape where water cannot soak through, and includes any hard surface like roof tops, asphalt, or concrete. Any increase in impervious surface has a direct effect on water storage and movement in the system. Figure 1 details the changes in the hydrologic system that occur as the amount of impervious surface increases. In an undeveloped or forested system, runoff composes only 10% of the hydrologic flow with the rest of the water either lost to evaporation or infiltrating into the ground. However, as the amount of impervious surface increases to 35-50%, runoff increases to 30% and far less water is stored via infiltration{물의 지하 침투}. ...

되돌아볼 옛 고전

▷ 삼일신고(三一神誥)

▷ 참전계경(參佺戒經)

▷ 육도삼략(六韜三略)

▷ Emanuel Swedenborg: HEAVEN and its Wonders, and HELL: From Things Heard & Seen by EMANUEL SWEDENBORG, 1909(reprint: 1911, 1917, 1920)

▷ History of Philosophy(through the Friesian School):

▷ The Proceedings of the Friesian School, Fourth Series

• ...
• Carl Gustav Jung (1875-1961)

Long-Term Investing in a Short-Term World: How Psychology and Incentives Shape the Investment Industry

When our long-term competitive position improves as a result of . . . almost unnoticeable actions, we describe the phenomenon as “widening the moat.” And doing that is essential if we are to have the kind of business we want a decade or two from now. We always, of course, hope to earn more money in the short-term. But when short-term and long-term conflict, widening the moat must take precedence. If a management makes bad decisions in order to hit short-term earnings targets . . . no amount of subsequent brilliance will overcome the damage that has been inflicted.
--Warren E. Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders (2005)

Long-Term Investing in a Short-Term World: How Psychology and Incentives Shape the Investment Industry, Michael J. Mouboussin(2006년 5월 18일)

금융의 지장과 투자의 덕장을 찾아서

금융시장의 스펙트럼에는 돈놀이판과 도박판이 항상 출몰하지만, 금융은 무엇보다도 경제와 심리가 촘촘히 물려 돌아가는 '섬세한 과학'일 것이다. 그곳은 너무 섬세해서 과학이라고 하기도 어려울 것 같다. 어쩌면 과학으로서의 심리학이 임상치료의 현장에서 부딪치는 문제에 비유할 수 있을지도 모르겠다. 금융시장의 복잡한 샛길에서 길을 잃거나, 그 난폭한 톱니바퀴들에 끼이지 않으려면, 용기보다는 기술이, 기술보다는 지혜가, 또 지혜보다는 철학이 필요할지 모른다. 또 행동을 하는 요령도 중요하겠지만, 행동을 하지 않는 원칙이 더 중요할 것이다.

※ 버튼 맬킬(Burton G. Malkiel):

• 시장 변화를 이기는 투자: 랜덤워크 (A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 2007, 9th edn / 한국어판 2009년)
• Burton Malkiel's Index of Insights, Business Week (2007년 6월 13일)
• The Efficient Market Hypothesis and its Critics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003

※ 존 보글(John C. Bogle):

• 모든 주식을 소유하라
• 연설문(Speeches by John C. Bogle), Bogle Financial Markets Research Center
• 소론 및 논평(Bogle Op-ed Articles), Bogle Financial Markets Research Center
• 10 Questions for John Bogle, Time (2005년 9월 4일)
• More from John Bogle, Fortune(2007년 12월 17일)
• Fund Insight: John Bogle Says ETFs a Mistake for Many Investors, SmartMoney (2007년 3월 2일)

※ 데이비드 드레먼(David Dreman):

• 데이비드 드레먼의 역발상 투자

※ 필립 피셔(Philip Fisher), 켄 피셔(Kenneth L. Fisher):

• 위대한 기업에 투자하라(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)
• Super Stocks
• 100 Minds That Made the Market
• 포브스 칼럼 모음(Portfolio Strategy)
• Ken Fisher's Website
• Fisher Investments' MarketMinder
• ..

※ 찰스 엘리스(Charles D. Ellis)

• Winning the Loser's Game
• The Loser's Game, The Financial Analysts Journal(1975년). 발행된 지 30년이면 무료 공개할 만도 할 텐데, 새 링크가 열려도 자꾸 막아놓는다. ( 새링크 1, )

※ 경제 금융 관련 블로그들

• FOOG.com
• 돈을 벌자! Money Never Sleeps!

Subprime crises and Bagehot’s wisdom

Subprime crises and Bagehot’s wisdom: Bagehot, central banking, and the financial crisis,
Xavier Vives, 31 March 2008.

The current crisis is a modern form of a traditional banking crisis. The 125-year-old Bagehot's doctrine tells us how governments should react – lend to solvent but illiquid financial institutions. While easy to state, the doctrine is hard to apply. The key question to assess the future consequences of current central bank policy is whether the subprime mortgage crisis arises in the context of a moderate or a severe underlying moral hazard problem. ..."

※ 자료: Subprime crises and Bagehot’s wisdom vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

The Lord is the God of Heaven: Heaven, and its Wonders, and Hell (제2~6절):

The Lord is the God of Heaven

2. It must first be known who the God of heaven is, since on this all depends. In the universal heaven none other is acknowledged as the God of heaven than the Lord alone. They say there, as He Himself taught, that He is one with the Father; that the Father is in Him, and He in the Father; that whosoever seeth Him seeth the Father; and that everything which is holy proceedeth from Him (John 10. 30, 38; 14. 10, 11; 16. 13-15). I have often talked with angels on this subject, and they have always said that they cannot in heaven distinguish the Divine Being into three, because they know and perceive that the Divine Being is one, and is one in the Lord. They said also that members of the church who come from the world entertaining an idea of three Divine Persons cannot be admitted into heaven, because their thought wanders from one Person to another; and that it is not allowable there to think of three and speak of one, because in heaven every one speaks from his thought; speech being there from thought itself or thought speaking. Therefore those who in the world have divided the Divine Being into three, and have entertained a separate idea of each, have not made that idea one and centered it in the Lord, cannot be accepted; for in heaven there is a general communication of thought, so that if any one should enter there thinking of three and speaking of one, he would be instantly discovered and rejected. It is however to be observed that all those who have not separated truth from good or faith from love, on being instructed in the other life, receive the heavenly idea of the Lord, that He is the God of the universe. It is otherwise with those who have separated faith from life—that is, who have not lived according to the precepts of a true faith.

3. Those within the church who have denied the Lord and acknowledged only the Father and have confirmed themselves in that faith are outside heaven; and since no influence from heaven, where the Lord alone in{is} worshipped, reaches them, they are gradually deprived of the faculty of thinking what is true on any subject whatever; at length they either become like dumb persons or talk foolishly, and wander about aimlessly with their aims dangling to and fro as if weak in the joints.

Those who, like the Socinians, deny the Divinity of the Lord and acknowledge only His Humanity, are also outside heaven. These are borne forward a little to the right, and let down to a greater depth, and are thus entirely separated from the rest of those who come from the Christian world. But those who profess to believe in an invisible Divinity, which they call the Being(Ens) of the universe, from which all things have derived their existence, and who reject all faith in the Lord, are taught by experience that they believe in no God.; for this invisible Divinity is according to them an attribute of nature in its first principles, which cannot be an object of faith and love, because no idea can be formed of it. These are sent away amongst those who are called believers in nature. It is otherwise with those who are born outside the church and are called Gentiles, of whom more will be said in the following pages.

4. All children, of whom a third part of heaven consists, are initiated into the acknowledgement and belief that the Lord is their Father, and are afterwards taught that He is the Lord of all and therefore the God of heaven and earth. That{Those} children grow up in the heavens and are perfected by means of knowledge until they acquire angelic intelligence and wisdom, will be seen in what follows.

5. Those who belong to the church cannot doubt that the Lord is the God of heaven, for He Himself taught that all things of the Father are His (Matt. 11. 27; John 16. 15; 17. 2); and that he hath all power in heaven and on earth (Matt. 28. 18). {He says “in heaven and on earth,” because He who rules heaven rules the earth also, for the one depends upon the other.} To rule heaven and earth, means to receive from Him all the good pertaining to love, all the truth pertaining to faith, and thus all intelligence, all wisdom and all happiness; in a word, eternal life. The Lord taught this also when He said, “He that believeth on the Son hath everlasting life; and he that believeth not the Son shall not see life”(John 3. 36). Again: “I am the Resurrection and the Life. He that believeth in me though he were dead yet shall he live; and whosoever liveth and believeth in me shall never die”(John 11. 25, 26). And again: “I am the way, the truth and the life”(John 16. 6).

6. There were certain spirits who while they lived in the world acknowledged the Father but had the same idea of the Lord as of any other man, and so did not believe Him to be the God of Heaven. They were therefore permitted to wander about and enquire wherever they pleased whether there is any other heaven than that of the Lord. They sought for several days but found none. These were such as suppose heavenly happiness to consist in glory and domination, and because they could not obtain what they desired, and were told that heaven does not consist in such things, they became indignant, and wished to have a heaven where they could rule over others and surpass them in glory after the fashion of this world.

자료: HEAVEN and its Wonders, and HELL: From Things Heard & Seen by EMANUEL SWEDENBORG, 1909, PUBLISHED BY J.M. DENT & SONS Ltd. & IN NEW YORK BY E.P. DUTTON & CO.

Capital and its Complements (J. Bradford DeLong, May 2008)

Capital and its Complements , J. Bradford DeLong, U.C. Berkeley and NBER, May 2008

※ 어느 세미나에서 발표된 글인데, 경제사적 사실에 근거에서 국제적 자본이동과 세계경제의 문제를 차근차근 풀어가는 소론이다. 더불어 현재의 미국 서브프라임 위기를 큰 시각에서 바라보고 있다. 다시 살펴볼 만한 내용이다. 관점도 훌륭하고 과거 미국 재무부에서 일할 때 자신의 생각이 틀렸다는 솔직한 언급은 감동적이기도 하다. 앞으로 주목해야할 경제학자로 보인다.

This paper will therefore present a confused and rambling look at the issue of capital and its complements[the role of saving, investment, and international capital flows] in economic growth in five stages:

• Historical patterns: what has been the relationship between capital andgrowth in the past, and what economists have thought about that relationship.
• The capital accumulation gradient: the increasing difficulty as industrialization proceeds that poor developing countries have in raising their capital intensities to levels that allow use of the most modern productive technologies.[n3]
• The neoliberal bet: the hope so confidently and widely shared a couple of decades ago that international capital mobility would greatly aid in helping poor countries climb up the capital accumulation gradient—that heightened capital mobility would be able to produce rapid industrialization and growth throughout the world.
• The unexpected reversal: the fact that international capital mobility over the past two decades (a) has expanded much more rapidly than almost anybody had predicted, but (b) has expanded in the wrong direction—the poor have not been borrowing from the rich to finance their investment and industrialization, instead the rich have on net been borrowing from the poor to finance their own consumption.
• What is to be done: this is the weakest part of the paper, because it is not at all clear what is to be done.

※ 메모: Act III: The Neoliberal Bet on International Capital Mobility

• Thus for poor countries to bootstrap themselves by their own efforts alone into rapid sustainable growth is very difficult. Hence the neoliberal bet: the hope that international capital mobility would come to the rescue, first by relaxing this binding capital constraint imposed by the tilt of relative price structures and second by reducing the scope for corruption and rent seeking via the economic controls imposed to prevent international capital mobility. Courtesy of Christopher Meissner and Alan Taylor at this conference, we have already heard about the historical precedent: Britain before 1914. According to Meissner and Taylor, Britain’s net foreign assets in 1913 were equal to 20 months’ GDP. Net foreign assets in 1913 equaled 60 percent of Britain’s domestic capital stock.
• A huge amount of industrialization in the resource-rich, temperate periphery before 1913, was financed by the willingness of British investors to commit their capital overseas—not just to build up Britain’s capital stock, but to build up capital stocks abroad as well. (Let’s pass over for a moment the fact that the British investors in the Erie Railroad found that Jay Gould stole two-thirds of their money, not least by taking a huge leveraged long position in the stock and then announcing his retirement from the company. He retired, the stock price boomed, and he pocketed something like 50 percent of the present discounted value of the fact that he would no longer be around to loot the company.)
• Fifteen years ago I certainly shared this belief: that international capital mobility was perhaps the best thing that could help the world economy. It held the promise of allowing the relatively rich core to fund the industrialization of the poor periphery. Back in 1993 at then-current exchange rates China’s entire capital stock was $2 trillion, at a time when the capital stock of the United States was $20 trillion. All that you would have had to do to double the capital stock of China through international capital mobility was to gradually, over the course of a decade, move 10 percent of the capital stock of the United States across the Pacific. That would have done truly wonderful things. Thus the neoliberal hope at the start of the 1990s was essentially to place a large economic policy bet on capital mobility: to trust that very large and very poor labor forces across the world would turn out to be very attractive to global capital free to flow. If relatively small amounts of technology transfer could be used to make such labor even a small fraction as productiv eas industrial core labor, the incentives for capital to flow toward the periphery like a mighty river would be overwhelming. Before 1914 it was natural resources that had provided the irresistible incentive for internationalcapital mobility toward a periphery composed of economies like Canada,Australia, New Zealand, and the United States but also Argentina, Chile,Uruguay, South Africa, Kenya, Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong. The hope was that in some respects this pre-1914 process could be replicated. That would cut at least a generation off the time needed to make a truly humane and prosperous world economy.

Act IV: The Unexpected Reversal

• Yes, there have been large flows of capital going both ways around the world. But the huge increase in gross flows is not the big story.The big story is that {the large net flow of capital from the rich to the poor countries of the world seeking high profits from reducing disequilibria between the wages and the relative productivity of labor} has simply not happened. Instead, the principal thing that happened was an enormous flow of capital from the periphery [to the poor][to the rich?], a flow perhaps best-tracked in realtime by Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations on his weblog <http://www.regmonitor.com/blog/stetser>.
• ... Hence, I argued, the late Rudiger Dornbush was almost surely wrong when he worried in the early 1990s about the state of the Mexican peso and the possibility of yet another Mexican devaluation crisis.
  Well, as so often happened, Dornbusch proved smarter than I was. It turned out that $20 billion to $30 billion of capital a year did flow from the UnitedStates to Mexico as American firms sought production platforms. But it also turned out that what looked to be $30 billion to $40 billion a year of capital flowed from Mexico to the United States.
• ... It is indeed the case that U.S. labor productivity is now 35 percent higher than it was back in 2000, with, as best as we can see, real wages remaining exactly the same. That represents a huge shift of income in the direction of capital. These represent huge potential profits, which attract foreign investment. It is not just political risks of investing abroad that are driving the long-term inflow of capital to the United States.

... 7월 31일.

보건사업의 경제성 평가

보건사업의 경제성 평가, 이규식(연세대학교 보건행정학과)

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in pharmacoeconomics

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in pharmacoeconomics

In the context of pharmacoeconomics, the cost-effectiveness of a therapeutic or preventive intervention is the ratio of the cost of the intervention to a relevant measure of its effect. Cost refers to the resource expended for the intervention, usually measured in monetary terms such as dollars or pounds. The measure of effects depends on the intervention being considered. Examples include the number of people cured of a disease, the mm Hg reduction in diastolic blood pressure and the number of symptom-free days experienced by a patient. The selection of the appropriate effect measure should be based on clinical judgment in the context of the intervention being considered.

A special case of CEA is cost-utility analysis, where the effects are measured in terms of years of full health lived, using a measure such as quality-adjusted life years or disability-adjusted life years.
Cost-effectiveness is typically expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), the ratio of change in costs to the change in effects.

자료: Wikipedia: Cost-effectiveness analysis

※ 메모:

• quality-adjusted life years(QALYs): "질보정 건강생활년수(가칭)": 어떤 의료적 개입으로 건강을 회복해 생활하는 기간을 생활의 질적 요소를 고려한 가중치를 매겨서 그 햇수를 합산하는 지표다.
• disability-adjusted life years(DALYs): "장애보정 건강상실년수(가칭)"

ADVANCE MARKET COMMITMENTS FOR VACCINES ...

ADVANCE MARKET COMMITMENTS FOR VACCINES AGAINST NEGLECTED DISEASES: ESTIMATING COSTSAND EFFECTIVENESS,

E. R. BERNDT ET AL., HEALTH ECONOMICS, 2006

Summary: The G8 is considering committing to purchase vaccines against diseases concentrated in low-income countries (ifand when desirable vaccines are developed) as a way to spur research and development on vaccines for thesediseases. Under such an ‘advance market commitment,’ one or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price tobe paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to close to marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make revenues similar to the revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree towhich various model contracts and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment. ...

※ 메모:

• Rather than attempt to guess how much it would cost to develop a vaccine for a disease such as HIV,our strategy is therefore to ask how large a commitment would be needed to give developers incentives comparable to product markets for diseases prevalent in rich countries. To outline our approach asdescribed in this section, we first estimate the NPV of revenues earned by a sample of recently launched commercial pharmaceutical products. We then adjust this figure to account for the fact that developersof a vaccine under an advance market commitment would likely have lower marketing costs, and thus require somewhat lower revenues to generate the same incentive to invest in R&D.6 We also...
• The most recent comprehensive evidence of sales revenues for biopharmaceutical products is a paper byGrabowski et al. (2002) ... on 118 new chemical entities (NCEs) that were introduced into the US pharmaceutical market between 1990 and 1994. An important finding ... is that the revenue distribution over the sample set of products is not only widely distributed, but is also highly skewed. In particular, ... the top selling 10% of products earn approximately half of the total market revenues (in terms of worldwide sales). Using separate estimates of the cost of pharmaceutical development, [the report] also find[s] that sales revenues of the median NCE are insufficient to break even, implying the mean sales revenue may provide a more reliable estimate of what level of expected revenues may be effective in spurring industry investment.
• To transform the revenue stream into a NPV, we assume an estimated industry-wide real cost of capital (that is, earnings foregone on other investment opportunities) of 8%, close to the annual average return on the stock market (Siegal, 1998).[n9] This real rate of 8% is equivalent to a nominal cost of capital of 11%, assuming 3% inflation. Using the sales revenue data together with this assumption of an 8% real cost of capital, the NPV of revenues (pre-tax, and gross of plant, equipment, promotion and marketing, production, and distribution costs) derived over the life cycle of the average product in theGrabowski et al. sample is $3.44 billion (in 2004 dollars).[n10]
• To obtain concrete cost-effectiveness numbers we also need to consider a particular set of contract provisions and vaccine characteristics including assumptions about which countries would participate in the program, vaccine adoption rates, and sources of additional revenue to the vaccine supplier (e.g.travelers’ or military purchases). These parameters and assumptions can be modified in the spreadsheet,thus allowing the user to investigate the impact of alternative contract parameters and different assumptions regarding take-up, disease burden, etc. For example, the spreadsheet allows the user to assess the revenue and cost-effectiveness consequences of different combinations of price, quantity, and vaccine characteristics. Based on the user inputs as well as recent data compiled on disease burden and population, the spreadsheet outputs the cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) saved by the program and the NPV of revenues that would accrue to the vaccine supplier.
• A vaccine commitment would also be cost-effective at the time of vaccine development under a wide range of contract provisions. For example, to match the revenues of drugs falling between the 70th and80th percentile and generating a market roughly comparable to $3.61 billion in NPV of sales, a commitment could offer $17 per person immunized for the first 200 million people immunized, at a cost of about $16 per DALY saved. To match the revenues of drugs falling between the 80th and 90th percentile and generating a market roughly comparable to $5.73 billion in NPV of sales, a commitment could offer $25 per person immunized for the first 250 million people immunized, at a cost of about $23 per DALY saved. As discussed below, if raising the price offered per person immunized accelerated the vaccine development time, a larger commitment might prove more attractive than a smaller one.

Advance market commitments - Wikipedia

Advance market commitments - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

"An advance market commitment is a binding contract, typically offered by a government or other financial entity, used to guarantee a viable market if a vaccine or other medicine is successfully developed. As a result of such a commitment, the market for vaccines or drugs for neglected diseases would be comparable in size and certainty to the market for medicines for rich countries. This would enable biotech and pharmaceutical companies to invest in the development of new vaccines to tackle the world’s most pressing health problems, such as HIV/AIDS, in the normal course of their business decisions. ..."

※ 메모:

• Advance market commitments(AMC)는 빈곤국에서 만연하는 소외질병(neglected diseases)을 치료할 백신이나 의약품이 시장실패로 인해 개발되지 못하는 문제를 해결하기 위한 제도적 장치다.
• Google 검색으로 나오는 우리말 사용례들을 보면, "도입촉진사업", "백신촉진사업", "선진시장공약" 등 다양한 용어들이 눈에 뜨인다.
• 본래의 개념에 충실하자면 "선행적 시장조성"이 어울리겠다. 하지만 "사전 구매 약정"이라는 역어를 쓰면, 이 개념에 함축되어 있는 경제학적인 어감은 반감되더라도 의미를 전달하기에는 보다 수월할 수도 있겠다.

공중 보건(public health)의 개념

이상생명체 연구소 77202x : 공중 보건(public health)의 개념

"공중 보건이란 개념은 일반 의료에 비해 사람들에게 많이 알려져 있지 않은 개념입니다. 일반 의료(흔히 영어로 medical care라고 씁니다)가 이미 질병에 걸린 환자를 질병에서 치료하는 것에 목적을 두고 있다면, 공중 보건 의료(영어로 public health care라고 씁니다)는 건강에 영향을 줄 수 있는 모든 요소를 파악하고, 그것을 바탕으로 국민 전체의 건강을 증진시키며 질병 위험을 줄이는 것을 목적으로 합니다. 미국에서는 국가 단위와 개개의 HMO단위에서 이루어지며, 한국에서는 주로 국가 단위로 이루어집니다. 공중 보건 사업은 국가별로 다르게 이루어지지만 대개 생활 환경 개선, 금연과 절주, 올바른 식습관 확립 등이 주 사업 목표로 지정됩니다" (위 블로그 중에서 인용)

Haemophilus Influenzae type b: 인플루엔자 간균 B군

Haemophilus : KMLE 의학 검색 엔진 - 의학사전, 의학용어, 의학약어, 의학논문, 약�:

"Haemophilus Influenzae type b" : 인플루엔자 간균 B군

WHO | Disability adjusted life years (DALY): 장애보정손실년수

Disability-Adjusted Life Years:

전반적인 질병 부담을 계측하기 위해 세계보건기구(WHO)가 정의한 개념이다. 조기 사망에 따른 손실수명년수(Years of Life Lost, YLL)에 장애생활년수(Years Lived with Disability, YLD)를 합해서 산출된다. 장애생활년수는 장애로 인해 상실된 건강생활년수를 집계한 지표다. 이 지표들의 측정 단위는 人年person-year이다.

이 용어의 우리말을 정하기가 좀 까다롭다. 의료 및 보건 관련 국내 자료들에서 발견한 용어로는, "장애보정생존(또는 생활) 년수"와 "장애보정손실년"이라는 용어도 사용되고 있고, 그 밖에도 여러 가지 용어가 눈에 뜨인다. 그런데 이런 용어들로는 말 그 자체로 본래의 개념이 잘 전달되지 않는다. WHO가 정한 개념을 간단히 적어보자(아래 링크 1번 자료다):

DALYs for a disease are the sum of the years of life lost due to premature mortality(YLL) in the population and the years lost due to disability(YLD) for incident cases of the health condition. The DALY is a health gap measure that extends the concept of potential years of life lost due to premature death(PYLL) to include equivalent years of 'healthy' life lost in states of less than full health, broadly termed disability. One DALY represents the loss of one year of equivalent full health.

장애 등의 사유로 인해 상실된 건강생활년수까지 고려함으로써, 조기 사망으로 인해 상실된(상실됐다고 간주할 수 있는) 수명 연수를 폭넓게 확대하기 위한 개념이다. 즉 사고, 질병, 장애 등의 이유로 건강하게 생활하지 못한 햇수가 몇 년이나 되냐는 지표다. 인년(person-year)를 단위로 해서 국가 전체적으로 모든 질병 및 장애질환을 대상으로 집계할 수도 있고, 어느 특정 질병(예컨대 우울증)으로 인한 DALY도 집계할 수 있다.

"장애 포함 상실 건강 년수"라고 하면 말 그대로 뜻이 전달되지만 너무 글자수가 많은 걸까? 글자수도 많을 뿐 아니라, 조기 사망으로 상실된 수명 연수도 포함되어 있다는 점이 가려버리고 만다. 당분간 아래 두 번째 링크의 자료를 좇아서 "장애보정손실년수"로 정해보자.

장애생활년수(YLD)라는 용어도 "Years Lived with Disability(YLD)"라고 표현한 자료가 있었는데, WHO의 정의에서 사용되었듯이 "life lost due to disability(YLD)"라고 표현되는 경우도 있는 것 같다. 손실수명년수(YLL)의 공식 표현은 "years of life lost due to premature mortality(YLL)"라고 이해해두자. 우리말 자체로는 "손실수명", 즉 "잃어버린 수명"이라는 표현 속에 조기 사망의 의미가 담겨 있으므로 YLD에 대응하는 우리말은 "손실수명년수"로 충분해 보인다.

자료:
1. WHO Disability adjusted life years (DALY) (새 링크)

2. 사회계층에 따르 질병부담: 국가 질병통계 및 관련 제도 개선의 측면 (보건복지 포럼, 2004년 6월)
3. Wikipedia 자료에도 이 개념이 간략히 잘 정리되어 있다.

그래도 옛 여름 같은 한여름

하루가 달리 녹아내리는 북극의 얼음과 수박 뽀개듯 쩍쩍 떨어져 나가는 남극대륙의 모습처럼, 지금 변하고 있는 자연의 모습을 피부로 느낄 수는 없을지도 모르겠다. 그저 뉴스나 미국 항공우주국의 새로운 관측 데이터가 나올 때마다 접하는 자료에 불과한지도 모르겠다.

가만히 내 주위의 기후를 관찰해보면 자연이 변하는 속도가 너무 빨라서, 이 지구에 몸을 실은 지금의 생명체들이 안쓰러워질 때도 있다. 사람을 두고 볼 때도 정상과 비정상을 가르는 기준은 극히 주관적인 것이겠지만, "정상적"이라 함은 대체로 변화가 없을 때다. 사실 인간을 포함해 자연이 유지하는 정상적인 모습은 "하늘 아래 새로운 것 없다"는 "변화 없음"일 것이다. 변화 중에도 똑같은 모습을 유지하는 "항상성 속의 변화"라는 의미에서다.

"변해야 산다"는 게 누가 시작한 말인지는 몰라도, 그렇게 "변해야 산다는 삶"이 "자연의 항상성"으로부터 괴리된 지는 아주 오래된 것 같다. 하지만 별로 오래된 것도 아닐 것이다. 크게 보더라도 기껏해야 19세기 말이나 20세기 초이래 100여 년밖에 되지 않은 생활 양식이다(주목해야 할 것은 자본주의 역사 중에서도 1960~1970년대 즈음부터 그 변화가 빨라졌다는 점이다).

놀라운 것은 이 짧은 기간 동안 인간이 변하는 속도만큼이나 자연이 변하는 속도도 빨라지고 있다는 점일 것이다. 이 100여 년의 짧은 시간 동안, 우선은 인간이 험악하게 망가졌고, 그 다음으로 자연이 망가지는 차례를 밟고 있는 중인 게 분명하다.

***

요즈음 장마전선이 오르내리는 와중에, 푸른 산들로 둘러싸인 곳에서 그런 자연을 관조할 기회가 있었다. 저 너머 산등성이 사이의 계곡 여기 저기에서 물기운이 수증기처럼 하늘로 올라가는 모습이 보인다. 물기를 머금은 흙과 풀들의 냄새도 대기를 타고 내 코로 들어온다. 위에서 아래로 한결같이 흐르는 물 소리가 내 귀를 두드린다.

상선약수(上善若水)라는 말을 노자가 했다지만, 보편적인 자연관에서 나온 이 생각이 어찌 책에만 있을 것이며, 어찌 노자를 들먹여야만 알 수 있는 것이겠는가? 노자가 없었더라도, 아낙네들이 빨래터에서 빨랫감을 두들기면서 졸졸 흐르는 물소리을 듣다가 오고갔을 대화 속에 그 앎이 다 녹아 있었을 거라고 느낀다.

차근차근 망가져가는 지구의 거대한 몸부림의 와중에도 이 반도의 한 귀퉁이에서 잠시나마 접한 푸르름, 촉촉함, 하늘이 무너질 듯 퍼붓는 빗줄기를 산 목숨으로 관조할 수 있는 시간이 고맙다.

International Protection of Intellectual Property

International Protection of Intellectual Property

Gene M. Grossman, Princeton University and Edwin L.-C. Lai, City University of Hong Kong

Revised: June 2003


Abstract:

We study the incentives that governments have to protect intellectualproperty in a trading world economy. We consider a world economy withongoing innovation in two countries that differ in market size and in theircapacities for innovation. We associate the strength of IPR protection withthe duration of a country’s patents that are applied with national treatment.After describing the determination of national policies in a non-cooperativeregime of patent protection, we ask, Why are patents longer in the North?We also study international patent agreements by deriving the propertiesof an efficient global regime of patent protection and asking whether harmonizationof patent policies is necessary or sufficient for global efficiency.JEL Classification: O34, F13Keywords: patents, intellectual property, harmonization, TRIPs

Why Intellectual Property Rights Matter – A Reminder

Why Intellectual Property Rights Matter – A Reminder

Andreas Freytag and Gernot Pehnelt

... On the other hand, IPR protection legally enforces (temporary) monopolies where a market for the innovation exists and no relevant substitutes are available (9). Such a monopoly that – quasi by nature – result in short-term dead weight welfare losses and static inefficiencies. As Nordhaus (1969) shows, in a closed economy, an optimal IPR-system would equal the marginal dynamic benefits of innovations with the marginal static efficiency loss stemming from reduced competition. An IPR-system that satisfies this requirement balances static and dynamic efficiency and maximizes the welfare within a society by creating incentives to innovate on the one hand and ensuring sufficient competitive pressure on the other hand. However, it is not a trivial task to calculate static welfare losses that might result from the monopolistic power provided by IPR protection and it is literally impossible to estimate potential benefits of (future) innovations. That is why neither economic theory nor policy has reached a clear consensus on what an ideal IPR system should look like, especially when it comes to international trade. ...

STATIC AND DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF HEALTH POLICY:EVIDENCE FROM THE VACCINE INDUSTRY

STATIC AND DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF HEALTH POLICY:EVIDENCE FROM THE VACCINE INDUSTRY

Amy Finkelstein
January 2004

This paper compares the static and dynamic welfare effects of public policies. Public policies designed for the “static” purpose of increasing utilization of an existing technology may also affect incentives to develop new technologies. Recognition of such policies’ “dynamic” effects on the development of new technologies may substantially alter the analysis of optimal policy, as well as the welfare impact of any given policy.

Whether or not it is important to consider policy-induced innovation when evaluating the welfare effects of policies designed for “static” purposes depends, first on foremost, on whether such policies have a substantial effect on innovation. This key unknown parameter of the investment response is the main focus of the empirical analysis in the paper.

I look within the medical sector, where rapid technological progress has been a defining feature of the industry over the last century. Technological progress has been a key contributor to the dramatic health improvements of the 20th century. It is also widely viewed as the driving force behind the rapid growth in the real cost of medical care [Newhouse 1992]. Yet we know remarkably little about the determinants of the developments of these new technologies. Perhaps relatedly, almost all economic analysis of health policy has focused on its static effects on utilization of existing medical technologies, and ignored its dynamic effects on the development of new medical technologies. (본문 중에서)

strain: Information and Much More from Answers.com

strain: Information and Much More from Answers.com:


"A strain is a genetic variant or subtype of a virus or bacterium. For example, a 'flu strain' is a certain biological form of the influenza or 'flu' virus. Compare clade."

바이러스나 박테리아가 유전자 변형을 일으킨 변종이나 subtype임을 위 정의에서 알 수 있다. 우리말로는 독주(毒株)로 표현되는 사례가 꽤 보인다. 일반 독자에게는 표현 자체로 의미를 전달하기 힘들다. 전문적인 과학 분야 글이 아니라면, "virus stain"은 "바이러스 변종" "HIV strains"이라고 하면, 후천성면역결핍증후군을 일으키는 각종 바이러스 변종(간단히 AIDS 바이러스 변종)이라고 해도 무방해 보인다.

영국 국제개발부 조직도

영국 국제개발부(Department for International Development) 조직도

영국 국제개발부 홈페이지: http://www.dfid.gov.uk/

cf. Director, International Finance & Development Effectiveness (IFDE)

IFDE manages DFID’s relations with the World Bank, IMF, Regional Development Banks, Global Funds and Development Finance Institutions and is responsible for managing private sector infrastructure investments and the CDC, promoting global improvements in aid effectiveness, debt relief, a more effective international system, multilateral effectiveness, results, global efforts to reduce corruption, public financial management and innovative finance. Reporting to the Director General (International), you will manage three Deputy Directors and three policy departments and have overall responsibility for an annual programme spend of £1 billion and 70 staff.

Representing the British Government in major multilateral and bilateral negotiations, you will ultimately promote reform of the international aid system to make development partnerships more effective and work in partnership with other DFID divisions and other Whitehall Departments – including No.10 and the Treasury. Whether you come from an economics, social science or other background, you will have a successful track record in leadership, finance and management in the context of international development. A skilled international negotiator, you will demonstrate extensive People/Financial Management, Communication and Project Management experience. Frequent overseas travel will be involved.

An information specialist? How boring is that? How I ....(Information Outlook, Oct. 2004)

An information specialist? How boring is that? How I...

Information Outlook, Oct. 2004

※ informaiton specialists: 정보전문직

wage insurance

wage insurance: Information and Much More from Answers.com

portability

portability: Information and Much More from Answers.com:

1. Wikipedia: portability (social security)

The Portability of social security benefits is the ability to preserve, maintain, and transfer acquired social security rights and social security rights in the process of being acquired from one private, occupational, or public social security scheme to another without losing their contributions (Cruz 2004).
Hence, if social security benefits are portable, contributors to, for example, old-age pension schemes do not experience any disadvantage like the loss of contributions and benefits associated with these contributions when moving from one job to another, from one occupation to another, or from the public to the private sector.
International portability of social security rights allows international migrants, who have contributed to a social security scheme for some time in a particular country, to maintain acquired benefits or benefits in the process of being acquired when moving to another country. ...

2. Financial & Investment Dictionary: Portability

Employer-Sponsored, Personal, And Portable Health Insurance -- Goodman 25 (6): 1556 -- Health Affairs

Employer-Sponsored, Personal, And Portable Health Insurance -- Goodman 25 (6): 1556 -- Health Affairs:

"Employer-Sponsored, Personal, And Portable Health Insurance

John C. Goodman

Personal and portable health insurance is an idea whose time has come. Despite its stated intent, however, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) strongly discourages individually owned, portable insurance. Federal tax laws do the same. Some examples of portable benefits exist, such as the TIAA-CREF system. This paper considers three reform models for moving toward personal, portable coverage: the National Center for Policy Analysis–Texas Blue Cross Blue Shield proposal, the Massachusetts health care plan, and a health reimbursement arrangement (HRA) approach. Congress could make the transition smoother by clarifying when and if individually owned insurance can be purchased with pretax dollars. ..."

원문은 이곳에 있으나, 유료 정보다.

continuing education

continuing education: Definition and Much More from Answers.com:


"Britannica Concise Encyclopedia: continuing education

Any form of learning provided for adults. In the U.S. the University of Wisconsin was the first academic institution to offer such programs (1904). Empire College of the State University of New York was the first to be devoted exclusively to adult learning (1969). Continuing education includes such diverse methods as independent study; broadcast, videotape, online, and other forms of distance learning; group discussion and study circles; conferences, seminars, and workshops; and full- or part-time classroom study. Remedial programs, such as high-school equivalency and basic literacy programs, are common. In recent years the variety of subject matter has expanded greatly to include such topics as auto repair, retirement planning, and computer skills. See also Chautauqua movement."

장기실업자의 구조변화 및 정책과제(KNSI)

장기실업자의 구조변화 및 정책과제(Korea National Strategy Institute: KNSI)

작성 시점: 2002년 추정.

청년 실업의 장기 비용과 재정정책에 대한 시사점(조세연구원)

청년 실업의 장기 비용과 재정정책에 대한 시사점(조세연구원)

미국의 무역조정지원(TAA) 제도, 대안적 무역조정지원(ATAS) 제도

... 미국은 1962년 무역확대법을 제정하면서부터 무역자유화 추진에 따라 피해를 입는 기업과 근로자를 지원하는 무역조정지원제도(TAA : Trade Adjustment Assistance)를 도입하고 있다고 밝히고, 동 제도가 해당 기업의 경영정상화에 실질적인 도움을 주었다고 평가했다. 보고서는 무역조정지원을 받은 기업이 그렇지 않은 기업에 비해 생존률, 고용, 매출 측면에서 긍정적인 효과가 있었다고 지적했다. 한편, 근로자 지원에 대한 사례 분석 결과(2002년 TAA 개정후 폐업한 5개주 소재 5개 공장, 1,141명 대상) 지원대상 실직자의 평균 80% 이상이 TAA 원스톱 센터를 방문하여 일자리 검색과 같은 일대일 서비스를 받은 것으로 나타났다.

미국의 경우 직업교육 등 구체적 지원 프로그램의 활용도 낮아

그러나, 연령, 성별, 기술숙련도 등이 반영된 수요자별 차별화된 프로그램이 부족하여 근로자의 직업교육 참여도가 낮았으며, 건강보험 혜택(건강보험 세액감면제)과 임금보조 혜택(대안적 무역조정지원)의 경우에도 제도이용의 어려움 등으로 활용도가 10% 내외에 머물렀다고 지적했다.

* 건강보험 세액감면제(HCTC : Health Coverage Tax Credit) : 대상이 되는 신청자에 대하여 일정조건 충족시, 건강보험료의 65%에 해당하는 세액감면을 받을 수 있는 혜택

* 대안적 무역조정지원(ATAA : Alternative Trade Adjustment Assistance) : 무역조정지원 대상이 되는 50세 이상 고령 실직자의 재취업시 실직전 임금과 재취업후 임금의 격차를 1만 달러까지 보정해주는 임금보조 혜택(TAA 혜택과 양자택일)

이상 보도자료 중에서: “미국의 무역조정지원 사례 및 시사점” (전국경제인연합회 보고서)

OECD English / Korean Glossary of Terms

OECD English / Korean Glossary of Terms (영어 및 한국어 병기 OECD 용어 정리):

경제협력개발기구(OECD)에서 사용하는 회원국 간 공용 용어를 영어와 한국어로 병기하고,
그 정의를 기록한 문건으로 보인다. 한편, 이 웹문서의 제목으로 표기되어 있는 다음 표현은 무슨 뜻인지 모르겠다.

"Korea, OECD English / Korean Glossary of Terms - 합의된 규정과 기준에 따라 일이 진행되었음을 증명해야 하는 의무, 혹은 주어진 역할과 계획에 따른 실적을 공정하고 정확하게 보고해야 하는 의무 "

그래서 "영어 및 한국어 병기 OECD 용어 정리"라고 나름대로 이해해 본다.


"LABOUR TURNOVER - 노동이동률 [勞動移動率] :
특정기간동안 평균종업원수 대비 입직자수의 비율(입직률)과 이직자수의 비율(이직률)의 합을 의미함."

OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms - Job turnover Definition

OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms - Job turnover Definition:


"JOB TURNOVER

Definition: Job turnover, at the level of an individual establishment or firm, is simply the net change in employment between two points in time ?the total number of jobs created less the number of jobs which have disappeared.

It does not include job vacancies which remain unfilled and jobs that begin and end over the interval of observation, which is most often one year.

Context: Comparing employment levels at two points in time permits establishments or firms to be classified into four groups:

i. opening, i.e. those with no employment at the beginning and employment at the end;
ii. closing, i.e. those with employment recorded at the beginning and none at the end;
iii. expanding, i.e. those with employment in both periods, but at a higher level at the end;
iv. contracting, i.e. those with employment in both periods , but at a lower level at the end.

Summing net employment changes over opening and expanding establishments gives job gains, while the sum of employment declines from closing and contracting establishments gives job losses. The balance of job gains and job losses is then job turnover."

정보통신산업에서의 일자리 변동과 노동 이동

정보통신산업에서의 일자리 변동과 노동 이동(Job Reallocation and Worker Reallocation in the ICT sector)

전병유(한국노동연구원), 김기헌(한국노동연구원) 지음.

The McKinsey Quarterly: Who Wins in Offshoring?

The McKinsey Quarterly: Who Wins in Offshoring?

By Vivek Agrawal and Diana Farrell, December 2003

※ McKinsey Quartrly 웹사이트에 사용자 등록을 하고 로그인하면 원문을 읽어볼 수 있다.

※ memo:

Widely cited figures predict that by 2015, roughly 3.3 million US business-processing jobs will have moved abroad.1 As of July 2003, around 400,000 jobs already had. Other research suggests that the number of US service jobs lost to offshoring will accelerate at a rate of 30 to 40 percent annually during the next five years.2 Vast wage differentials are prompting companies to move their labor-intensive service jobs to countries with low labor costs: for instance, software developers, who cost $60 an hour in the United States, the world's biggest offshorer, cost only $6 an hour in India, the biggest market for offshored services (see Vivek Agrawal, Diana Farrell, and Jaana K. Remes, "Offshoring and beyond," The McKinsey Quarterly, 2003 Number 4 Global directions, pp. 24–35).

Such projections have caused alarm in the United States. In February 2003, the cover of Business Week asked, "Is your job next?" In June, the US House of Representatives' Committee on Small Business held a hearing on "The globalization of white-collar jobs: Can America lose these jobs and still prosper?" Several US states are considering legislation to prohibit or severely restrict their state governments from contracting with companies that move jobs to low-wage developing countries,3 and labor unions, notably the Communications Workers of America, are lobbying Congress to prevent offshoring.

... How much value will be created in this way depends on the country's future economic performance. Historical trends can serve as a guide. If we use the statistics on reemployment and wage levels already noted—69 percent of nonmanufacturing workers are reemployed at 96.2 percent of their previous wages—and bear in mind that 72 cents of every dollar offshored had previously been spent on US wages,8 the indirect benefit to the US economy would come to an additional 45 to 47 cents for every dollar spent on offshoring. That is a conservative estimate, since workers in IT and business services tend to find jobs more quickly than do workers in the service sector as a whole, and the demographic shift will increase the demand for workers.
In this way, offshoring, far from being bad for the United States, creates net value for the economy. It directly recaptures 67 cents of every dollar of spending that goes abroad and indirectly might capture an additional 45 to 47 cents—producing a net gain of 12 to 14 cents for every dollar of costs moved offshore (Exhibit 2).

※ 위 그림에서는 미국 기업들이 역외 외주조달(offshoring)에 1 달러를 지출하면, 직접 이득으로 0.67 달러를 벌고, 여기에 간접 이득으로 버는 0.45~0.47 달러가 보태져서 미국 경제 전체로 1.12~1.14 달러의 이득이 돌아온다는 내용이다 (물론, 그림의 주를 보면 인도에서 외주조달하는 서비스 산업의 사례를 한 것이고, 부가되는 다른 가정들이 있기는 하다).

※ 다음 스위스 IP의 링크에서 보다 자세한 내용을 그대로 담고 있는 같은 출처의 논문을 볼 수 있다:

Behind the Asian outsourcing phenomenon

Behind the Asian outsourcing phenomenon

From the McKinsey Quarterly Special to CNET News.com
February 21, 2004, 6:00 AM PST


※ memo:

In the United States, high wages are a major reason for the understandable tendency of high-performing companies to strip out layers of middle management and to increase the operating span of the remaining managers, forcing them into administrative and supervisory roles. In Asia, by contrast, the ratio of managers to staff is much higher, so they can spend more time building the skills of employees.

To give an example, eTelecare maintains a ratio of one "team lead" (frontline manager) to eight customer service agents, compared with a ratio of 1:20 or more for similar U.S. operations. The company invests heavily in formal training programs, which are reinforced by apprenticeship, coaching and mentorship. Agents who handle complex mutual-fund advisory calls, for instance, take a 16-week training course leading to the NASD Series 7 examination for broker certification.

By organizing employees into smaller teams that have more exposure to managers, the company can follow up with ad hoc coaching and detailed reviews of every agent’s performance--at least an hour a week for seasoned reps and more for newer ones. Agents at eTelecare enjoy an average pass rate of 81 percent on the NASD tests--recently, in fact, the pass rate has been 100 percent--compared with an average U.S. pass rate of 59 percent.
The higher ratio of managers to workers also allows companies to pay greater attention to identifying and implementing process improvements that enhance their operational performance; at eTelecare, no less than 10 percent of a team lead’s time is spent in this way. The benefits are evident as soon as the company takes over a client’s call center. One client, in its own operations, was used to an average handling time of about eight minutes. Within six months, eTelecare had reduced this to four and a half minutes by refining call-handling procedures; revising the order in which information was gathered and entered, with a view to minimizing the impact on performance; and altering computer screens to reduce the number of page changes required in most transactions.

The benefits of a high ratio of managers to staff are visible in offshore manufacturing operations too. Assembly line managers at one Chinese factory, for instance, worked closely with the staff to identify a novel way of reducing the time and cost of setting up surface-mount-technology placement equipment. By identifying and grouping products with similar attributes, the factory reduced throughput times and manufacturing costs significantly.

Dic: favorable, propitious, auspicious, benign, conducive

Synonyms: favorable, propitious, auspicious, benign, conducive

These adjectives describe what is indicative of a successful outcome.

(1) Favorable can refer to what contributes in a positive way to the attainment of a goal: a favorable review.
(2) Propitious implies a favorable tendency or inclination: "Miracles are propitious accidents" George Santayana.
(3) Auspicious refers to what presages good fortune: an auspicious beginning.
(4) Benign applies to people or things that exert a beneficial influence: "I lingered round them, under that benign sky . . . and wondered how anyone could ever imagine unquiet slumbers, for the sleepers in that quiet earth" Emily Brontë.
(5) Something conducive leads or contributes to a result, often a desirable one: a quiet place conducive to reading.

US Current Account Deficit: How Great a Threat to the Dollar?

US Current Account Deficit: How Great a Threat to the Dollar?


Abstract: Economists have been warning about the dangers of the US current account deficit foryears. So far, they’ve been proved wrong. But its effect on the value of the US dollar can’t be postponed forever. Investors should prepare for an eventual decline, the duration and magnitude of which promise to be substantial.

The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar

The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar

위 링크의 문서는 프레젠테이션 문서이고, 소론 원문은 다음 링크에서 찾을 수 있다:

Blanchard, Olivier J., Giavazzi, Francesco and Sa, Filipa G., "The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar" (January 26, 2005). MIT Department of Economics Working Paper No. 05-02.
Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=655402

※ 그림에서 파란색 선 그래프(1980년대 추이)와 검은색 선 그래프(1995년부터 2000년대 추이)가 대비되어 있는 게 흥미롭다.

The Dollar and the Current Account Deficit:How Much Should We Worry?

The Dollar and the Current Account Deficit: How Much Should We Worry?

By Michael Mussa
Senior Fellow, the Peterson Institute for International Economics

For presentation at the American Economics Association Meetings
Chicago, IllinoisAt 10:15 a.m. on January 6, 2007

Draft of January 2, 2007.

※ memo: At its latest quarterly reading, the U.S. current account deficit was running at $900 billion per year. This is equivalent to almost 7 percent of U.S. GDP [, which] is roughly double the peak deficit as a share of GDP that was reached in the l980s. Like most, but by no means all, international economists, I have said for some time that the U.S. current account deficit cannot continue to expand as it has for the past fifteen years and that at some time, probably before much longer, it will need to start to shrink as a share of U.S. GDP.

인베스토피디아 상장지수펀드(ETF) 특집

영어로만 되어 있는 자료들이지만, 몇 가지 자료들은 읽어볼 만한 것으로 보인다.
아래에 링크를 붙인다.

Investopedia Special Feature: Exchange Traded Fund

특수 분야 지식 및 희귀 언어 검색

▷ 분야별:

1. Behind The Names
2. Marxists Internet Archive 
3. http://www.mlwerke.de/me/default.htm
4. KMLE 의학 검색엔진(Korean Medical Library Engine)
5. 물리학 용어 사전:
   ... http://hyunam.hanbat.ac.kr:8005/~chemeng/physics_dic.html(아직은 잘 안 된다)
   ... http://www.kisboard.com/pdic/pdic.html
   ...
6. AGRAM DATABASE: 건축가들(Le Corbusier르 코르뷔지에, Jujol 쥐졸?, Adolf Loos아돌프 로스, Duiker듀이커?, Schinkel신켈, Wright and Melnikov.)
   
7. YIVO--Institute for Jewish Research
8. Buddhanet
   ...
9. ...

▷ 언어별: 

http://www.websters-online-dictionary.org/

1. English.French.Spanish.German.Russian (Cobuild)
2. WordReference.com (Spanish, French, Italian, German, Russian and English)
3. LexiLogos (Words and Wonders of the World)
4. Yiddish Dictionary Online
5. Greek Language
   (5.1) Greek Alphabet: 개요와 발음, 개요(Wikipedia), 발음 및 로마자 표기(Wikipedia), Greek-language.com 자료, Omniglot 자료, 그리스어 입력자판,
   (5.2) Greek Grammar on the Web: The Electronic Gateway to the Study of Ancient Greek
   (5.3) Greek Language and Linguistics (greek-language.com)
   .......
   (5.x) Ancient Greek Dictionary(LexiLogos)
   
   
6. 라틴어(Latin)
   (6.1) 즐거운 라틴어 (서울대 법대 로마법 및 서양법사학 교실 제공)
   (6.2) 라틴어 관련 주요 사이트 (서울대 법대 로마법 및 서양법사학 교실 제공)
   (6.3) Latin Dictionary and Grammar Aid (Univ. of Notre-Dame)
   
   
7. West Indian Dictionary
8. ...

세계사 지식 검색 창고

1. International World History Project
   ..
   ..
2. Internet Modern History Sourcebook (Fordham University), & its History Sourcebooks Project Home  
3. History Learning Site
4. HyperHistory Online: 색색가지 분야별 세계사 연대기와 지도들이 흥미롭다.
5. MacroHistory and World Report
6. World History Archive
7. History World
8. ...

* * *

Sources of special subjects:

• 제1차 세계대전의 기록: firstworldwar.com ; 
• Living Documents of American History And Democracy (살아있는 미국 역사와 민주주의 문서): 독립선언문(1776), 버지니아 권리장전(1776), 미국의 헌법(1787), … | 주한미국대사관 공보과 (2006년)
• ...

Single docs and books

• Richard Brown, Society and Economy in Modern Britain 1700-1850 (Routledge 1991)
• F. H. Hinsley, ed. The New Cambridge Modern History, vol. XI: Material Progress and World-Wide Problems 1870-1898 (Cambridge University Press, 2008)
• GEORGE MACAULAY TREVELYAN, BRITISH HISTORY IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY 1782-1901 (LONGMANS,GREEN, AND CO, 1922)
• ..

A Proposal for a U.S. Carbon Tax Swap: An Equitable Tax Reform to Address Global Climate Change

A Proposal for a U.S. Carbon Tax Swap: An Equitable Tax Reform to Address Global Climate Change

Gilbert E. Metcalf,
Discussion Paper 2007-12, October 2007
The Brookings Institution

Abstract:

This paper describes a carbon tax swap that is both revenue and distributionally neutral. The tax swap would levy a tax on greenhouse gas emissions. The revenue would be used to fund a reduction in the income tax, tied to earned income. Specifically, the proposal calls for a tax on greenhouse gas emissions at an initial rate of $15 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent and gradually increasing over time. A refundable tax credit would be offered for sequestered greenhouse gases and other approved sequestration activities. In addition, to offset the new carbon tax, the proposal would implement an environmental tax credit in the personal income tax equal to the employer and employee payroll taxes on initial earnings up to a limit.

This paper begins with a discussion of the problem of greenhouse gas emissions and providesa rationale for setting a price on carbon emissions. It then provides a distributional analysis of the proposal described above. Following this analysis, it makes a case for why carbon pricing through a tax should be considered a viable alternative to carbon pricing through a cap-and-trade system. It concludes with a response to various objections made to carbon pricing in general and a carbon tax in particular.

※ memo:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) reports that ... the rate ofwarming has accelerated over the past 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s at a rate approximately three times faster than the century scale trend. The past nine years have all been among the 25 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S., a streak which is unprecedented in the historical record” (NOAA 2007).

IPCC's Working Group II enumerates (in a report) a number of potential impacts, noting that, by 2020,“between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change. If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems” (p. 8). Africa is especiallyat risk. ... In some countries, yields from rainfed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020” (IPCC 2007b, p. 8). ... North America will also be impacted. The report notes the issues of reduced snow pack in western mountains and decreased summertime water flows, for example. This would place additional strains on already taxed water systems in the West. The risk of forest fires will rise, and heat-sensitive crops(such as corn and soybeans) may be adversely affected.

... Weitzman (2007) argues that the fundamental uncertainties associated with catastrophic climate change (albeit with a low probability of occurring) trump any discussion over the appropriate discount rate to use in an intertemporal cost-benefit analysis as undertaken by Stern or others. In short, it would be prudent to take some sort of action sooner rather than later. A modest initial carbon price with a gradual ramping up over time would start the United States down a path toward GHG reductions.

온실가스 배출량과 국별 할당량 계산에 관한 교토의정서 세부 매뉴얼(UN 기후변화 기본협약 사무국, 2007년 2월)

Kyoto Protocol Reference Manual on Accounting of Emissions and Assigned Amounts

UNFCCC secretariat, February 2007

UNFCCC secretariat의 공식 홈페이지, http://unfccc.int/ 에 공개되어 있는 자료다.

Business Spectator - The great carbon debate

Title: The carbon tax - an alternative to carbon trading (출처: Business Spectator - The great carbon debate) by Robert J Shapiro, 6 Nov 2007


At the International Climate Change conference, which begins today in Sydney, keynote speaker Robert J Shapiro will argue that the current global focus on carbon trading as a means of tackling climate change is misguided. The article below is an edited extract of his paper, in Climate Change: Getting it right, published by the conference host, the Committee for Economic Development of Australia.
Tomorrow, Business Spectator will publish a second article from the conference arguing in favour of a hybrid carbon-trading policy to control greenhouse emissions in Australia."

※ memo:

Carbon taxes raise the price of carbon-based energy directly, predictably and in a constant manner, imposing the greatest costs on those firms and economies that produce the most emissions. In so doing, carbon taxes create direct incentives to reduce carbon-based energy use or substitute cleaner forms of energy, until the cost of doing so is greater than the tax.

A serious cap-and-trade program applies no direct charge to emissions up to its cap, but the cap for the system is set below its current or forecast emissions.

The two approaches differ in several important ways. The critical economic distinction is that cap-and-trade directly controls the quantity of emissions, while carbon taxes directly control their price. The result is that cap-and-trade can produce a designated quantity of emissions, but with much greater potential volatility in energy and energy-related prices, while carbon taxes will produce more certain prices for energy and energy-intensive goods, but greater uncertainty about the quantity of total emissions.

Business Spectator - The great carbon debate: part 2

The authors will today address the International Climate Change conference in Sydney. The article below is an edited extract of their paper, in Climate Change: Getting it right, published by the conference host, the Committee for Economic Development of Australia.


Title: Why a hybrid policy is better for Australia (출처: Business Spectator - The great carbon debate: part 2)

Authors: Warwick J McKibbin and Peter J Wilcoxen
(Warwick J McKibbin is professor and director of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in the ANU College of Business and Economics. Peter J Wilcoxen is an associate professor of economics and public administration at the Maxwell School of Syracuse University.)

※ 메모:

Carbon Trading:

The idea behind a cap-and-trade permit system is relatively straightforward. A target for emissions is chosen for a given year. Emission permits are then printed and distributed for that year. Legislation is also enacted that requires an emitter of carbon to have permits equal in number to its emissions, and to specify rules for monitoring polluters and punishing violators (for example, the penalty for non-compliance is often a very high fee).
The strength of the system is that the emissions outcome is known and specified explicitly in the policy. However, the price of an emissions permit (often called the price of carbon) will not be known until after the market clears. Moreover, it will move around with shifts in the demand for permits, and can be highly variable.
Moreover, what matters for the climate is the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere. It is not the flow of emissions each year but rather the accumulation of these emissions over time that is important.
...
A conventional carbon-trading market performs poorly in this context because it targets the annual flow of emissions rather than the stock.
A better policy would be to have a flow of emissions each year that is determined in a manner allowing for cost-smoothing over time. The hybrid approach allows exactly that. ... (본문 중에서)

정상희 교수의 환경자원경제론 (동아대학교)

자료 및 강의 노트:

1. 환경자원경제 읽기자료 1
2. 오염의 경제분석1
3. 오염의 경제분석1 그림 설명
4. 환경문제 해결방안
5. 환경정책수단
6. 환경(자원)경제 강의노트

출처: http://web.donga.ac.kr/shjeong/ (자료를 인터넷에 공개해주신 정상희 교수께 감사드리며...)

※ 메모: 환경정책 수단에 대한 몇 가지 용어 목록:

□ 직접규제(Command and Control; CAC)

□ 경제적 유인제도(Incentive Based Regulation)

□ 환경세(environmental tax) : 피구세(Pigouvian Tax) , 배출부과금(Emission Charge) , 제품부과금(Product Charge) , 예치금환불제도(Deposit-refund system)

□ 배출권 거래제도 (marketable (tradable) permit system) :

• 환경기준 배출권 (Ambient-based system; ABS): 배출권 거래지역의 환경오염정도에 따라 오염이 심한 지역에서는 동일한 배출량에 대하여 더 많은 배출권을 구입하도록 하는 제도로서 동일한 량의 오염물질도 오염피해에 대한 한계기여도가 다르다는 점에 착안하여 오염물질의 실제적 오염기여도가 같은 행위가 동일한 가격을 지불하도록 하기위해 고안됨.
• 배출량기준 배출권(Emission-based system; EBS): 동일배출량-동일오염권의 원칙을 유지하는 제도로서 ABS에서 제기된 문제점을 완화하기 위하여 오염의 정도에 따라 권역을 분할하고 각 권역별로 각기 다른 오염권을 할당 한다.
• 복합기준 배출권(Combined system; CS) : ABS와 EBS의 절충형태로서 오염권 시장을 분할하지는 않으나 근거리에 위치한 거래자에게 거래우선권을 주는 제도.

□ 배출권 거래제도와 유사한 총량규제 정책: 상쇄(相殺)정책(offset policy) , 풍선(묶음)정책(bubble policy) , 정산(혹은 상계相計)정책(netting policy) , 저축정책(banking policy)

미국 재무부 내 주요 직제

미국 재무부 장관(United States Secretary of the Treasury) 밑의 직급으로 Deputy Secretary(부장관?)과 차관(Under Secretary)이 있고, 조직도상으로는 여러 차관들과 수평인 Assistant Secretary(차관보)가 있는 것으로 읽힌다. 그렇다면, "deputy assistant secretary for economic policy"는 "경제정책 담당 부차관보"로 옮김이 적절할 것으로 보인다.

출처: United States Department of the Treasury(Wikipedia 등)

Dollar Crisis: Prospect and Implications(January 8, 2008, Congressional Research Service)

Dollar Crisis: Prospect and Implications

January 8, 2008

Craig K. Elwell
Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy
Government and Finance Division
Congressional Research Service

The Exchange Rate and the Trade Deficit: What’s the Relationship?

The Exchange Rate and the Trade Deficit: What’s the Relationship?- Testing Popular Claims about the Current Account and the Exchange Rate

Michael E. S. Hoffman, Ph.D.
June 2005

Financial Globalization and the U.S. Current Account Deficit

Financial Globalization and the U.S. Current Account Deficit

Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard


Absract:

Despite heavy borrowing in recent years, the United States has financed its large current accountdeficits without experiencing an unusual buildup in foreign investors’ holdings of U.S. assets. A newanalysis suggests that this somewhat surprising development is attributable largely to rapid financialglobalization, with cross-border flows worldwide rising as fast as flows into the United States.However, it could be harder for the country to sustain large deficits on favorable terms if the currentwave of globalization subsided or the rate at which U.S. investors buy foreign assets increased.

US current account deficit - causes and consequences

Roger W Ferguson, Jr: US current account deficit - causes and consequences

Remarks by Mr Roger W Ferguson, Jr, Vice-Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, to the Economics Club of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,

Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 20 April 2005.

WILL THERE BE A DOLLAR CRISIS? (Paul Krugman, April 19, 2006)

WILL THERE BE A DOLLAR CRISIS?

Paul Krugman, April 19, 2006

美國경제 2010년은 돼야 회복(배리 아이켄그린, 매일경제 2008.3.11)

기사 스크랩: 美國경제 2010년은 돼야 회복(배리 아이켄그린, 매일경제 2008.3.11)

Policy Instruments for Climate Change:How Can National Governments Addressa Global Problem?

Policy Instruments for Climate Change:How Can National Governments Addressa Global Problem?

Robert N. Stavins,
RFF Discussion Paper 97-11(January 1997)

Abstract:

There continues to be great debate about the desirability of taking actions to limit carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions, but it is important to consider policy instruments that can be employed to meet targets that may eventually be forthcoming. The theoretical advantages of market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and systems of tradable carbon rights, are striking. In the U.S. domestic context, grandfathered tradable permits will probably be the preferred approach (if any) in the short run, although revenue neutral carbon taxes will hold greater promise in the long run. In the international context, a system of international tradable permits could provide important advantages over alternative approaches, but it is difficult to imagine what existing international institution could administer such a system. Hence, despite the great theoretical advantages of market-based approaches to addressing global climate change, neither domestic political barriers nor international institutional impediments to implementing these and other instruments should be underestimated.

Key Words: global climate change, policy instruments, political and institutional barriers

※ Memo:

Instrument Choice in Environmental Policy

Instrument Choice in Environmental Policy

Lawrence H. Goulder and Ian W.H. Parry,
Resources for the Futures(RFF) Discussion Paper, April 2008.

Abstract:

We examine the extent to which various environmental policy instruments meet major evaluationcriteria, including cost-effectiveness, distributional equity, minimization of risk in the presence ofuncertainty, and political feasibility. Instruments considered include emissions taxes, tradable emissionsallowances, subsidies for emissions reductions, performance standards, technology mandates, andresearch and development subsidies. Several themes emerge. First, no single instrument is clearly superioralong all the criteria. Second, significant trade-offs arise in the choice of instrument; for example,assuring a reasonable degree of distributional equity often will require a sacrifice of cost-effectiveness.Third, it is possible and sometimes desirable to design hybrid instruments that combine features ofvarious instruments in their “pure” form. Fourth, for many pollution problems, more than one marketfailure may be involved, which may justify (on efficiency grounds, at least) employing more than oneinstrument. Finally, potential overlaps and undesirable interactions among environmental policyinstruments are sometimes a matter of concern.Key Words: emissions control instruments, cost-effectiveness, distributional burden, inducedinnovation