2017년 2월 28일 화요일

[발췌] 미국 주 정부의 조직


출처: 워싱턴 아저씨 일기, "미국 정부 조직은 어떻게 운영되는가? ..." (2011)


※ 발췌:

2) 주 정부의 조직

주정부는 외교관과 교전권 등을 제외하고는 주권국가가 보유하고 있는 권력의 거의 전부를 보유하고 있습니다. 즉, 주정부에는 주자체의 의회, 법원, 행정부가 있어 각 주에 필요한 기능을 수행하고 있습니다.

( ... ... )

주의 행정부는 선거에 의하여 선출되는 주지사(Governor)를 우두머리로 하여 부지사(Lieutenant Governor), 주무장관(Secretary of State), 법무장관(Attorney General) 등으로 구성되어 있습니다. 주는 외교권을 가지지 못하지만, 그 대신 국외에 주의 대표기관을 설치하는 경우가 있습니다.

( ... ... )

[발췌] 차입매수(LBO) 방식 M&A에 대한 법원 판단 및 쟁점 (2008)


출처: 법무법인 세종, 2008

※ 발췌:

서울고등법원은 최근 통상 차입매수라 불리는 Leveraged Buy-out (“LBO”)과 관련하여 LBO 방식으로 회사를 인수한 자에게 배임죄의 성립을 인정하는 판결을 내렸습니다.  한편 검찰에서는 LBO 방법으로 회사를 인수하였다는 이유로 관련자를 배임 혐의로 구속하는 사례가 발생하였습니다.  이로 인하여 M&A 업무를 담당하는 많은 실무자들의 관심과 고민을 증대시키고 있습니다.

그 동안 대법원은 일련의 판결에서 “기업인수에 필요한 자금을 마련하기 위하여 그 인수자가 금융기관으로부터 대출을 받고 나중에 피인수회사의 자산을 담보로 제공하는 방식(즉, LBO 방식)을 사용하는 경우, 피인수회사로서는 주채무가 변제되지 아니할 경우에는 담보로 제공되는 자산을 잃게 되는 위험을 부담하게 되는 것이므로, 만일 인수자가 피인수회사에 아무런 반대급부를 제공하지 않고 임의로 피인수회사의 재산을 담보로 제공하게 하였다면, 인수자 또는 제3자에게 담보가치에 상응한 재산상 이익을 취하게 하고 피인수회사에게 그 재산상 손해를 가하였다고 봄이 상당”하여 배임죄가 성립한다고 하고, ( ... ... )

LBO는[,]

  • (가) “인수대상기업 자산을 담보로 금융권에서 돈을 빌려 인수를 완료한다”는 정도의 좁은 개념으로 한정될 수 있는 것은 아닙니다.  
  • (나) 기업인수에 있어서 인수회사는 기업인수에 필요한 자금을 조달하기 위해 다양한 방안을 모색하게 되는데, 이와 같은 기업인수를 위한 다양한 자금조달 방안 중에서 특히 인수회사가 자금을 조달함에 있어 주로 인수 대상회사의 기업가치를 이용하는 방법, 즉 거의 전적으로 대상회사의 영업에서 발생하는 현금흐름 또는 대상회사의 자산이 조달 자금 상환을 위한 책임재산으로 제공되는 방법을 모두 LBO라 부르는 것이 정확한 개념 정의일 것입니다.
그런데 법원에서는, ( ... ... )

2017년 2월 27일 월요일

Dic / 방조(幇助), 교사(敎唆), aid and abet

※일차로 대충 메모

─ 방조: 幇 도울 방 / 助 도울 조, 없앨 서

▷ 방조하다: (幇助--/幫助--) <법률> 「…을」
  • 형법에서, 남의 범죄 수행에 편의를 주는 모든 행위를 하다. 정범(正犯)의 범죄 행위에 대해 조언하는 일, 격려하는 일, 범행 도구를 대여하는 일, 범행 장소 및 범행 자금을 제공하는 일 따위가 있다. [비슷한 말] 가공하다2.
  • (어떤 사람이 다른 사람의 범행이나 자살을)거들어서 돕다.
  • (주로 범죄나 좋지 못한 일과 관련하여) 어떤 일을 거들어서 협조하거나 암묵적인 동의로 협조하다.
.... 표준국어 / 고려대 한국어/ 연세 한국어

─ 교사: 敎 가르칠 교 / 唆 부추길 사

▷ 교사하다: (敎唆--)
  • 「…에게 …을」 남을 꾀거나 부추겨서 나쁜 짓을 하게 하다.
  • 다른 사람에게 나쁜 일을 하도록 꾀거나 부추기다.


CF.

▷ aid and abet:

If one person abets another, they help or encourage them to do something criminal or wrong. Abet is often used in the legal expression 'aid and abet' (LEGAL FORMAL)
  • His wife was sentenced to seven years imprisonment for aiding and abetting him
...Cobuild

▷ aid and abet: To assist another in the commission of a crime by words or conduct.
The person who aids and abets participates in the commission of a crime by performing some overt act or by giving advice or encouragement. He or she must share the criminal intent of the person who actually commits the crime, but it is not necessary for the aider and abettor to be physically present at the scene of the crime.
An aider and abettor is a party to a crime and may be criminally liable as a principal, an accessory before the fact, or an accessory after the fact.

▷ aid and abet:
v. help commit a crime. A lawyer redundancy since abet means aid, which lends credence to the old rumor that lawyers used to paid by the word.

... West's Encyclopedia of American Law, edition 2. (2008),


2017년 2월 26일 일요일

[발췌] Mortgage Servicers


출처: http://realestate.findlaw.com/foreclosure/mortgage-servicers.html

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

Though mortgage payments make most borrowers think of traditional banks, most mortgage holders make their payments to separate mortgage servicers. Mortgage servicing companies collect mortgage payments, handle escrow accounts, credit and charge fees to the mortgage account, and initiate "default-related services" including foreclosure. Borrowers should monitor and maintain close contact with their mortgage servicers to ensure that mortgage payments are accurately credited, to protect themselves from various fees, and even to help avoid foreclosure.


Who Owns My Mortgage?

In many cases, the bank that issued a mortgage sells that mortgage to a third party. Mortgage loans can change hands many times, often leading to some confusion for borrowers as to who actually owns their mortgage loan.

Furthermore, the owner of the mortgage is not always the company that receives and processes the mortgage payment. This is because the mortgage owner (either the lender issuing the mortgage, or a subsequent purchaser of the mortgage) can sell or contract out the right to service that mortgage loan. Depending on how ownership rights in a mortgage loan get sold and divided, the mortgage servicer may be the mortgage owner, such as a bank, or may be an independent loan servicing company.

( ... ... )

[발췌] Mortgage servicing (2011)


지은이: Adam J. Levitin & Tara Twomey, 2011
출처: https://www.law.georgetown.edu/cle/materials/alumni/mortgage-servicing.pdf

※ 발췌:

ABSTRACT: ( ... ) A traditional mortgage lender decides whether to foreclosure or restructure a defaulted loan based on its evaluation of the comparative net present value of those options. Most residential mortgage loans, however, are securitized. Securitized mortgage loans are managed by third-party mortgage servicers as agents for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) investors.

Servicers' compensation structures create a principal-agent conflict between them and MBS investors. Services have no stake in the performance of mortgage loans, so they do not share investors' interest in maximizing the net present value of the loan. Instead, servicers' decision of whether to foreclosure or modify a loan is based on their own cost and incme structure, which is skewed toward foreclosure. The costs of this principal-agent conflict are thus externalized directly on homeowners and indirectly on communities and the housing market as a whole.

( ... ... ) Correcting the principal-agent problem in mortgage servicing is critical for mitigating the negative social externalities from uneconomic foreclosures and ensuring greater protection for investors and homeowners.


INTRODUCTION

( ... ... ) Homeownership is beyond means of most families absent mortgage financing, and most of the regulatory schemes relate to the mortgage originatin process and to the foreclosure sale process─the birth and death of the mortgage.[n3] There is scant regulation, however, of everything that occurs in the course of the mortgage's lifespan, between its originatin and its eventual end via payoff or foreclosure. This in-between period involves the management of mortgage loans, including collection of payments and restructuring of the loan in the event of the borrower's financial distress, and is known as ^mortgage servicing^.

Mortgage servicing has begun to receive increased scholarly, popular, and political attention as a result of the difficulties faced by financially distressed homeowners when attempting to restructure their mortgages amid the home foreclosure crisis.[n4] In particular, the mortgage servicing industry has been identified as a central factor in the failure of the various government loan modificatin programs, including Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).[n5] Mortgage servicing, however, remains a poorly understood industry, and this has impeded policy responses to the foreclosure crisis. ( ... ... )

This Article is a first step in that direction. It provides a detailed overview of  the  servicing  business,  including  its  regulation  and  economics. In  so  doing, the  Article  identifies  a  principal-agent  conflict  in  the  servicing  market  that contributes to unnecessary home foreclosures, to the detriment of homeowners and mortgage investors alike.

The economics of the servicing industry often discourage the restructuring of defaulted mortgage loans, even when it would be value-maximizing for mortgage investors. Servicing combines two distinct lines of business: transaction processing and administration of defaulted loans. Transaction processin is highly automatable and susceptible to economies of scale. Defaulted loan administration, in contrast, can either be automated or hands-on. Automated default administration, referred to as "default management," means that defaulted loans are referred to foreclosure with factory-like precision.[n6] ( ... ... ) The combination of business lines means servicers are ill-prepared to perform their loss mitigation function in a way that maximizes value for mortgage investors. ( ... ... )


I. Overview of the Mortgage Servicing Industry

A. Servicing and Securitization

1. Traditional Portfolio Lending

In a traditional mortgage lending relationship, a lender makes a loan, retains the loan in its portfolio, and services the loan itself.[n23] The lender sends out monthly billing statements and collects the payments. If the loan defaults, the lender will address the default with the goal of maximizing the loan's net present value, subject to its own valuation idiosyncracies, such as liquidity needs.[n24] A traditional portfolio lender has an undivided economic interest in the loan's performance and therefore fully internalizes the costs and benefits of its management decisions, such as whether to restructure or foreclosure on a defaulted loan.

The traditional portfolio lending relationship, however, is now the exception in the home mortgage market. Instead, mortgages are generally financed through securitization. Securitization is a financing method involving the issuance of securities against a dedicated cashflow stream, such as mortgage payments, that is isolated from other creditors' claims. Securitization links consumer borrowers with capital market financing, potentially lowering the cost of mortgage capital. It also allows financing institutions to avoid the credit risk, interest-rate risk, and liquidity risk associated with holding the mortgage on their own books.

Currently, about 65% of all outstanding residential mortgages by dollar amount are securitized.[n25] ( ... ... )

2. Mortgage Securitization

Although a mortgage securitization transaction is extremely complex and varies somewhat depending on the type of entity undertaking the securitization, the core of the transaction is relatively simple.[n31]

First, a financial institution (the "sponsor" or "seller") assembles a pool of mortgage loans.[n32] The loans were either made("originated") by an affiliate of the financial institution or purchased from unaffiliated third-party originators. Second, the pool of loans is sold by the sponsor to a special-purpose subsidiary )the "depositor") that has no other assets or liabilities.[n33] This is done to segregate the loans from the sponsor's assets and liabilities.[n34] Third, the depositors sells the loans to a passive, specially created, single-purpose vehicle("SPV"), typically a trust in the case of residential mortgages.[n35] The SPV issues certificated securities to raise the funds to pay the depositor for the loans. Most of the securities are debt securities─bonds─but there will also be a security representing the rights to the residual value of the trust or the "equity/"

The securities can be sold directly to investors by the SPB or, as is more common, they are issued directly to the depositors as payment for the loans. The depositors then resells the securities, usually through an underwriting affiliate that then places them on the market. The depositors uses the proceeds of the securities sale (to the underwriter or the market) to pay the sponsor for the loans. Because the certificated securities are collateralized by the residential mortgage loans owned by the trust, they are called residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS).

A variety of reasons ( ... ) mandate that the SPV be passive; it is little more than a shell to hold the loans and put them beyond the reach of the creditors of the financial institution.[n38] Loans, however, need to be managed. Bills must be sent out and payments collected. Thus, a third party must be brought in to manage the loans.[n39] This third party is the servicer. The servicer is supposed to manage the loans for the benefit of the RBMS holders.

[n39] See Eggert, ^Limiting Abuse^, supra note 19, at 754.

Every loan, irrespective of whether it is securitized, has a servicer: Sometimes that servicer is a first-party servicer, such as when a portfolio lender services its own loans. Other times, it is a third-party servicer that services loans it does not own. All securitization involve third-party servicers, but many portfolio loans also have third-party servicers, particularly if they go into default. Third-party servicing contracts for portfolio loans are not publivly available, making it hard to say much about them, including the precise nature of servicing compensation arrangements in their cases or the degree of oversight portfolio lenders exercise over their third-party servicers. Thus, it cannot always be assumed that if a loan is not securitized, it is being sericed by the financial institution that owns the loan; however, if the loan is securitized, it has third-party servicing.

Securitization divides the beneficial owenership of mortgage loans from legal title to the loans and from the management of the loans. The SPV (or more precisely its trustee) holds legal title to the loans, and the trust is the nominal beneficial owner of the loans. The RMBS investors are formally creditors of the trust, not owners of the loans held by the trust.

The economic reality, however, is that the investors are the true beneficial owners. The trust is just a pass-through holding entity, rather than an operating company. Moreover, while the trustee has nominal title to the loans for the trust, it is the third-party servicer that typically exercises legal title in the name of the trustee.  The economic realities of securitization do not track with its legal formalities; securitization is the apotheosis of legal form over substance, but puctilious respect for formalities is critical for securitization to work.

Mortgage servicers provide the critical link between mortgage borrowers and the SPV and RMBS investors, and servicing arrangements are an indispensable part of securitization.[n40] Mortgage servicing has become particularly important with the growth of the securitization market. The mortgage securitization market has grown at  a rapid pace in recent years. By the end of 2009, there was $6.97 trillion in outstanding U.S. RMBS.[n41] To put this in perspective, the principal amount of mortgage-related bonds outstanding at the end of 2009 was larger than the amount of U.S. Treasury bonds (which, in turn, was larger than the amount of U.S. corporate bonds), and accounted for over a fifth of the U.S. bond market.[n42]

3. Segmentation of the Mortgage Securitization Market

( ... ... )

[기사 발췌] 뉴욕타임스 "탄핵 반대 집회, 마치 '광신도' 같아" (프레시안, 2/24)


출처: 프레시안, 2/24. http://m.pressian.com/m/m_article.html?no=151558

※ 발췌:

( ... ... ) 지난 19일자 <뉴욕타임스>는 서울발 기사에서 "박근혜 대통령처럼 궁지에 몰렸던 한국 지도자는 거의 없었다. 최근 여론조사에서 그는 가장 인기 없는 지도자 중 하나로 꼽혔고, 80%에 달하는 응답자는 그가 청와대를 떠나기 원하고 있다"면서 "그러나 박 대통령은 여전히 정광용 박사모 대표 같은 사이비 종교 신도 같은(cult-like) 사람들을 장악하고 있고, 이들의 계속된 헌신은 이르면 5월에 치러질 대선에 세울 만한 후보를 찾고 있는 보수 세력을 분열시키고 있다"고 보도했다. ( ... ... )

2017년 2월 24일 금요일

Dic/ usages/ race to the bottom


1.

The situation in which companies and countries try to compete with each other by cutting wages and living standards for workers, and the production of goods is moved to the place where the wages are lowest and the workers have the fewest rights. 
(출처: Longman Business English Dictionary)

2.
a situation in which companies compete with each other to reduce costs by paying the lowest wages or giving workers the worst conditions.
  • They wanted to stop a "race to the bottom" of auto companies outsourcing work to non-union workers and moving operations overseas.

3.
The race to the bottom is a socio-economic phrase which is used to describe government deregulation of the business environment or taxes in order to attract or retain economic activity in their jurisdictions. An outcome of globalization and free trade, the phenomenon may occur when competition increases between geographic areas over a particular sector of trade and production. ( ... ... )

2017년 2월 23일 목요일

Song/ Ingrata


- 세자리아 에보라(Cesária Évora):


Oh mar, oh mar, oh menina
Dexam tchorá
Sodade di bo m´crêtcheu

Quêl ingrata que bai que dixâm
Que dixâm co sodade na coraçon
Ma m'tem fé! Ma inda el ta volta
Até um dia si deus quiser!

Um dia molha o florzinha
Que bai volver
Dam um consolo
na nha vida

─ 출처: http://lyricstranslate.com/en/cesaria-evora-ingrata-lyrics.html

Song/ Con te partirò (With you I will leave)


This song, sung by Andrea Bocelli (perhaps, first) in 1995, well evokes far-reaching meanings of the graduation many young souls can embrace in this season of their graduation. Thinking of, and visioning into my mind, their souls and esp my loved one's ... 

- Andrea Bocelli, Italian lyrics with English translation:


[발췌: Steve Keen's] Economists Ignore One of Capitalism's Biggest Problems. Banks Create Money out of Nothing.


지은이: Steve Keen
출처: Evonomics, Apr 2016
원출처: "Note To Joe Stiglitz: Banks Originate, Not Intermediate, And That's Why Aggregate Demand Is Stuffed," Forbes, Jan 2016


※ 발췌:

According to the mainstream, the rate of growth of debt is generally irrelevant to macroeconomics, because lending simply redistributes spending power from savers to investors—it doesn’t create spending power in its own right. What matters is that socially useful projects are funded which then fuel economic growth. How much private debt changes every year is simply a side-effect of getting money from savers who don’t spend, to investors who do. And huge changes can occur in the level of private debt without any impact on the rate of economic growth.

For decades now, a handful of rebel economists have been disputing this—including me of course, but going back to Irving Fisher and even earlier, and including modern non-mainstream economists like Stephanie Kelton (who now advises Bernie Sanders), and University of Southampton Professor Richard Werner. Oh, and a guy named Hyman Minsky too, whom the mainstream ignored until the 2008 crisis. But the mainstream ignored us before the crisis, and continues to ignore us after it, because their “banks as intermediaries” model tells them that we are just spouting nonsense.

We’re not, of course: the ordinary public tends to get that, and even The Bank of England has come out and said that it’s the mainstream that is spouting nonsense, not the rebels. But the mainstream rejects our analysis out of hand,because their model tells them that it’s OK to do so.


Dic/ how, as a simple conjunction for evoking a special fact


▷ You use how after certain adjectives and verbs to introduce a statement or fact, often something that you remember or expect other people to know about.

  • It's amazing how people collect so much stuff over the years.
  • It's important to become acutely aware of how your eating ties in with your stress level.
▷ Used after certain adjectives or verbs to refer to an event or situation
  • It's amazing how they've managed to get everything finished so quickly.
  • I remember how she always used to have fresh flowers in the house.
▷ Used for introducing a fact used for referring to a particular fact that you want to mention
  • I remember how they used to have those huge roaring fires in the winter.
  • Isn't strange how no one ever mentions his name nowadays?
▷ that
  • She told us how she had to work hard.
  •  He knows how you are a valued employee.
  • It's amazing how they completed the bridge so quickly.
... COBUILD, LDOCE, Macmillan, Merriam-Webster

Dic/ 상례(常例)

명사.

▷ 보통 있는 흔한 일.

  • 아기의 백일잔치에 흰떡을 맞추는 것이 상례로 되어 있다.
  • 우리나라에서는 옛날부터 엄마와 아기가 함께 자는 것이 상례이다.
▷ [주로 '상례로, 상례이다'의 꼴로 써서] 보통 흔이 있는 예.
  • 여간 단단한 여자라 하더라고 사내들이 가득한 직장 생활에서는 손해 보는 게 상례이다.
  • 논쟁이라는 것은 본래 판정이 나는 것이 아니어서 이내 흐지부지되고 마는 것이 상례이다.
  • 그는 언제나 부하 중의 누군가에게 자신의 소재를 밝혀 두는 것이 상례로 되어 있었다.
.... 고려대 한국어 대사전, 연세 한국어 사전

CF.

▷ 상례를 따르다:
  • follow (observe) the conventional practice
  • follow (observe) the usage, custom
▷ 상례: a usual practice

▷ 상례에서 벗어나다: break the routine
▷ make it a rule to go jogging every morning.


CF. typically:

1. You use typically to say that something usually happens in the way that you are describing. (= normally)
  • It typically takes a day or two, depending on size.
  • Women in developing countries typically have their first child when they are young.
2. You use typically to say that something shows all the most usual characteristics of a particular type of person or thing. (= characteristically)
  • Philip paced the floor, a typically nervous expectant father.
  • a delightful, typically Dutch hotel
  • The male of the species is typically smaller than the female.
3. You use typically to indicate that someone behaved in the way that they normally do. (=characteristically)
  • Typically, the Norwegians were on the mountain two hours before anyone else.

typical:

1. You use typical to describe someone or something that shows the most usual characteristics of a particular type of person or thing, and is therefore a good example of that type.
  • Cheney is everyone's image of a typical cop: a big white guy, six foot, 220 pounds.
2. If a particular action or feature is typical of someone or something, it shows their usual qualities or characteristics. (= characteristic)
  • This reluctance to move towards a democratic state is typical of totalitarian regimes.
  • With typical energy he found new journalistic outlets.
3. If you say that something is typical of a person, situation, or thing, you are criticizing them or complaining about them and saying that they are just bad or disappointing as you expected them to be.
  • She threw her hands into the air. 'That is just typical of you, isn't it?'
3'. used for saying that you are not surprised that something bad has happened:
  • It' typical, just when we might win, two of our players got injured.
  • The show's been canceled? Typical!
.... COBUILD, LDOCE, Macmillan

2017년 2월 22일 수요일

Mirror/ need for, needs of


예문을 적어두자.

  • Just as IPRs must balance the interests of innovators with the need for broadly dispersed innovation, so too must trade agreements balance the needs of an increasingly interconnected economy with the protection of communities, worker standards, and the environment.


궁극적으로는 전치사 for와 of가 need, needs와의 관계에서 어떤 역할을 하느냐의 문제일 것이다. 더불어 셀 수 없는 명사로서의 쓰일 때와 셀 수 있는 복수 명사로서 쓰일 때의 활용도 익히는 계기로 삼자.


2017년 2월 19일 일요일

Dic/ to be reckoned with


  • This act was a signal to his victim's friends that he was someone to be reckoned with.
  • Barcelona will be a force to be reckoned with this season.
  • The principal was certainly a woman to be reckoned with.
  • Since the government limited their powers, the unions are no longer a force to be reckoned with (= they are no longer very strong).
  • Any invader would have the military might of NATO to reckon with.
* * *

▷ If you say that there is someone or something to be reckoned with, you mean that they must be dealt with and it will be difficult.

▷ sb/sth to be reckoned with: someone or something that is powerful and must be regarded seriously as a possible opponent, competitor, danger etc.

▷ to be reckoned with: of considerable importance or influence.

▷ to be reckoned with: someone or something to be reckoned with is difficult to deal with because they are strong or powerful.

▷ have sb/sth to reckon with: to have to deal with someone or something powerful

.... COBUILD, LDOCE, COLLINS, CALD


[발췌] Distributed Technologies


출처: Think Academy, "Distributed Technologies," in Complexity Academy, April 15, 2015.


※ 발췌 (excerpt):

Distributed technologies are systems of technology composed of many small parts without centralized coordination or control. Key features to distributed systems include the fact that they are typically user-generated, informal networks, involving non-professional producers, with no one really in control of the entire network system. Examples of this would include peer-to-peer file sharing networks on the internet, mesh cellular telephone networks, or swarm robotic systems.


Distributive World

Our traditional industrial systems of technology are based upon a centralized model design to leverage economies of scale through batch processing, as centrally controlled systems like power generators plants, factories and broadcast media produced technologies and services that were pushed out to end users. Although distributed technologies have always been there on fringes, today a number of factors are working to fundamentally change this centralized model to a more distributed one, where capabilities and production can also take place at the edges of the network by many different actors.

Factors enabling this include:

  • Firstly, the emergence of alternative technologies like solar cells, wind turbines and 3D printers as increasingly efficient enough to complete and become mainstream products; 
  • Secondly, information technology that allows end-users to set up their own networks of coordination and collaboration at very low costs; 
  • And lastly, the deregulation and privatization of many previously state-owned monopoly infrastructure industries that is taking place around the world, as previously vertically integrated national systems are being unbundled allowing for a multiplicity of private actors to enter the value chain, as producers, traders, brokers, retailers and many more actors in a complex ecosystem.


Examples

A good example of shift from centralized to distributed mobile telephony. If we look at the emerging infrastructures in rural Africa or Asia today, they often bypass the centralized copper telephone network altogether instead implementing a decentralized cellular network. This helps to demonstrate how distributed technologies thrive particularly in areas with low population that lack the critical mass required for traditional centralized batch processing systems, and also where there is a lack of formal administration and pre-existing incubates. The emergence of renewable smart grids is another example of this. Information systems and distributed technologies are working to fundamentally re-architect the network away from the centrally controlled and operated traditional power grids that delivered electricity to end-users towards a distributed architecture where end-users are central as both consumers and producers, and also as managers of the systems through smart devices and information about prices and consumption.

( ... ... )

User-Generated

( ... ... )

Informal

( ... ... )

De-Professionalization

( ... ... )

Distributed Control

Lastly, no one is really in control of these distributed systems. The centralized infrastructure systems of the nation state were centrally controlled and managed in a hierarchical fashion. The privatization of infrastructure like water, road and rail networks added many more actors to this, as they became managed through market mechanisms. But with true distributed technologies, management of the system may become fully distributed out to the local level of the end-user. In some circumstances, clear ownership may not even apply. Fully distributed technologies are also managed in a distributed self-organizing fashion. Mesh networks and peer-to-peer file sharing are examples of this. Every user supports the provision of the network service. They have a swarm-like dynamic. Control of the system’s behavior and functionality is in the hands of many.

Inverse Infrastructure

Distributed technologies are also called inverse infrastructure as they have an almost inverse effect on the make-up to our infrastructure to that of the industrial model.2 If you have spent any time in the technology industries, you would have heard the word ‘disruptive’ repeatedly, and it is this structural transformation that is a large part of where this disruption is coming from. Because these alternative technologies simply do not fit into our pre-existing model, and they are not about to simply go away, something has to give. The whole landscape has to change, and that is a scale of disruption that we have not had for a number of centuries; since the Industrial Revolution.

( ... ... )

[발췌] Personalized Medicine


자료 1: Personalized Medicine (U.S. News and World Report, Jan 2011 )


※ 발췌 (excerpt):

In 2003, after more than a decade of research, the Human Genome Project was completed by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Institute of Health.

The goals of the Human Genome Project were to learn the order of the 3 billion units of DNA that go into making a human genome, as well as to identify all of the genes located in this vast amount of data. By 2003, almost all of the pairs of chemicals that make up the units had been put in the correct sequence—enough for a pronouncement of success. ( ... ... )

One of the early hopes of the genome project was to pinpoint specific genes that caused common diseases. Scientists now think the answer is more complex, with many diseases the result of multiple genes interacting. Nevertheless, the information garnered from the genome project has the potential to forever transform healthcare. Many believe that genome-based medicine, frequently called personalized medicine, is the future of healthcare─the next logical step in a world in which more is known about human genetics, disease, and wellness than ever before.

Of all the scientific and social promises that stem from advances in our understanding of the human genome, genomic medicine may be the most eagerly awaited. The prospect of examining a person's entire genome, or at least a large portion of it, in order to make individualized risk predictions and treatment decisions is tantalizingly within reach.

This discussion will explain the genomic basis of personalized medicine and explore its potential for good as well as its possible risks.

( ... ... )

자료 2: What Is Personalized Medicine? (Genome mag, ... )


( ... ... ) Call it what you will — personalized medicine, genomic medicine, precision medicine. It’s an approach that emphasizes the ways in which your disease risks are unique and different, just like your other, more obvious characteristics. Those disease risks are based on the predispositions written into your genome at birth, combined with your lifestyle and environment. In the case of cancer, the disease has its own genetic makeup, lending each tumor a unique character with unique tendencies and vulnerabilities. ( ... ... )


2017년 2월 18일 토요일

[발췌] Great Moderation


지은이: Craig S. Hakkio, FRB of Kansas City
출처: http://www.federalreservehistory.org/Events/DetailView/65

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

The Great Moderation from the mid-1980s to 2007 was a welcome period of relative calm after the volatility of the Great Inflation. ( ... ... ) inflation was low and relatively stable, while the period contained the longest economic expansion since World War II. Looking back, economists may differ on what roles were played by the different factors in contributing to the Great Moderation, but one thing is sure: Better monetary policy was key. Unfortunately, the financial crisis of 2007-08 and the ensuing Great Recession broke the calm of the Great Moderation. ( ... ... )

The significant decline in macroeconomic volatility that began in the mid-1980s and came to be known as the Great Moderation has been documented by many, including Stock and Watson (2003), Bernanke (2004), and Clark (2009). It was not simply a US phenomenon; it occurred around the same time in many other advanced economies.

     Chart 1 and Chart 2 visually illustrate the Great Moderation by showing real GDP growth and personal consumption expenditure inflation from 1960 to the present. While economists have reached no consensus on the period’s exact start and end dates, the chart dates the Great Moderation as between 1984 and mid-2007. The chart clearly shows the decline in volatility both in real GDP growth and in inflation.

( ... ... )

[발췌: 이원우] 경제 규제와 공익 (2006)


지은이: 이원우 교수
출처: http://s-space.snu.ac.kr/bitstream/10371/9974/1/law_v47n3_089.pdf

※ 발췌:

자유와 효율을 강조하는 자유주의적 견해에 따르면, 경제 규제는 개인들 상호 간의 자유로운 계약 체결이 보장되고 소유권이 보장되면 시장 기구에 의해 효율적인 자원의 배분과 개인의 자유가 보장될 수 있으며, 그 이상의 국가 개입은 불필요할 뿐 아니라, 자원 배분을 왜곡하고개인의 자유를 침해한다고 보는 입장이다. 이에 따르면 경쟁법적 규제도 예외적인 경우로 한정해야 하며, 독점 그 자체도 경쟁의 결과일 뿐 경쟁 질서는 변하지 않는다고 본다.[주]39

[주]39. 이러한 주장의 이론적 근거로는 이른바 “contestable market theory”가 제시되고 있다. ( ... ... )

Song/ La Voce del Silenzio - Andrea Bocelli

-



[발췌 메모] 갤브레이스의 "countervailing power"


자료 1: <미래를 여는 생각>

( ... ) 갤브레이스는 이 문제를 해결하기 위한 여러 가지 방안을 내놓았다. 특히 그는 사회보장비 지출, 일자리 보장, 가격 통제, 직업 교육 프로그램을 강화해야 하고, 소비세와 소득세를 인상해 재정을 마련해야 한다고 주장했다. 
한편 그는 막강한 권력을 가진 대기업에 맞서려면 맞수를 둘 기관이 나타날 수밖에 없다고 주장했는데, 이것이 바로 그 유명한 '대항적 권력(countervailing power)'이라는 개념이다. 갤브레이스는 거대 세력에 맞서려면 그보다 더 큰 세력이 있어야 하는데, 현대 사회에서 노조나 소기업의 합병 행우로 대기업에 대항한다고 주장했다. 

자료 2: "불확실성의 시대에 그가 남긴 이야기들: 타계한 경제학자 존 갤브레이스의 저서들"
갤브레이스의 기본적인 이론을 이해하기 위해서는 그의 초기작 <미국 자본주의American Capitalism: The Concept of Countervailing Power>(1952)를 읽어볼 필요가 있다. 갤브레이스는 이 책에서 그의 대표적인 개념인 '길항력(countervailing power)'을 소개했다. 갤브레이스는 이러한 힘결기를 통해 경제 체제에서 특정 집단의 독점을 막고 성장과 안정 간의 균형이 형성될 수 있다고 주장했다. ( ... )

자료 3: <떠날 것인가, 남을 것인가: 퇴보하는 기업, 조직, 국가에 대한 반응>
( ... ) 갤브레이스는 <미국 자본주의>라는 저서에서 선진 자본주의 경제가 지닌 독점적 경향성을 경쟁을 치유하려는 시도는 비현실적인 방법임을 지적하면서 그 대안으로 이미 존재하는 치료법, 즉 '길항력(countervailing power)'을 찬양하고 있다. 그어나 독점자들의 이윤 극대화와 착취뿐만 아니라 비효율, 부패 그리고 방만함이 문제가 된다면 어떻까? 어쩌면 궁극적으로는 이것이 더 흔한 독점의 위험일 것이다. 즉 그 독점자들이 그들의 제품에 높은 가격을 매기 ( ... )

자료 4: <공동체의 삶>
( ... ) 시장과 생산이 정치와 분배로부터 인위적으로 격절될 때, 복지 국가는 지금처럼 전자의 논리에 따라 언제든지 요동하는 불안정한 체제로 남을 수밖에 없다는 인식이 그것이다. 여기서는 갤브레이스의 문제의식을 빌려, 민주주의를 '정치와 시자의 양 영역에서 상쇄력(countervailing power)의 제도화' 정도로 정의하고자 한다. 
이 글은 복지 체제가 불평등과 관련하여 성취한 수행 실적 자체보다는, 신자유주의적 세계화라는 '대세'에 편승해서 불평등을 배후에서 지탱하거나 정당화하는 담론들을 비판적으로 검토하고 복지 한국이 선택할 수 있는 출구 내지 발전 방향을 사색해 보고자 한 것이다. ( ... )

자료 5: "이권 추구에서 혁신 추구로"
( ... ) 국가권력을 믿을 수도 시장에 맡길 수도 없다면, 어떻게 해야 하나? 실마리는 일찍이 갈브레이스가 설파한 길항권력(countervailing power)에서 찾을 수 있다. 그는 거대기업의 권력을 노조나 시민단체 그리고 정부규제 등의 길항권력으로 견제하는 것이 바람직하다고 보았다. 정부는 물론 노조마저 길항권력의 역할보다 이권추구에 더 눈을 돌리는 우리나라에서 갈브레이스의 논리가 통할까?
하지만 길항권력론의 핵심은 특정한 권력에 정의로운 역할을 기대하는 것이 아니라 권력이 여러 곳으로 나뉘어 상호 견제하도록 하는 데 있다. 우리가 익숙한 삼권분립의 원리가 바로 이것이다. 권력이 집중되거나, 나뉜 권력이라도 서로 야합하면 길항권력은 존재할 수 없다. 권력을 분산시키고, 다양한 권력이 독립성을 가지고 서로 견제하도록 해야 한다. ( ... )

자료 6: ... ...

2017년 2월 17일 금요일

Dic/ thesaurus/ overwhelm



1. If you are overwhelmed by a feeling or event, it affects you very strongly, and you do not know how to deal with it.

  • He was overwhelmed by a longing for times past.
  • The need to talk to someone, anyone, overwhelmed her. 
   a. To impair severely something such as the spirit, health, or effectiveness of: break, crush, destroy, ruin.
   / to overpower the thoughts, emotions, or sense of.

   b. To affect deeply or completely, as with emotion: crush, engulf, overcome, overpower, prostrate.
   / to weigh or rest upon overpoweringly


2. If a group of people overwhelm a place or another group, they gain complete control or victory over them.
  • It was clear that one massive Allied offensive would overwhelm the weakened enemy.
   c. To affect as if by an outpouring of water: deluge, flood, inundate, swamp, whelm.
   / to overcome, as with a profusion or concentration of something

   d. To flow over completely: deluge, drown, engulf, flood, flush, inundate, overflow, submerge, whelm.
   / to cover over or bury completely

   e. To render totally ineffective by decisive defeat: annihilate, crush, drub, overpower, smash, steamroller, thrash, trounce, vanquish.
   / to overcome with irresistible force
...... COBUILD, Roget's II, Collins

Dic/ 무지막지하다


무지막지(無知莫知)-하다: 형용사

1. (사람이나 그 언행이) 지나칠 정도로 사리를 모르고 우악스럽다.

  • 주민들은 철거 인부들의 무지막지한 욕설에 몸서리를 쳤다.
  • 그렇게 무지막지한 행동을 하다니 그는 포악한 인물임에 틀림없다.

2. (사물이) 지나칠 정도로 크다
  • 연약한 아이를 저렇게 무지막지한 손으로 때려도 괜찮은지 모르겠다. 
//

1. (하는 짓이) 상스럽고 우악스럽다.

   ( ... ... )

2. (움직임의 크기 혹은 정도가) 엄청나다.
  • 사내가 무지막지한 힘으로 성민을 구겨박듯이 팽개친 다음 미친 듯이 웃어 대기 시작했다.
  • 어둠 속에서 섬광을 일으키며 쏟아지는 수백 개의 포탄 세례는 무지막지했다.
  • 포장도 안 된 흙 길을 달리는 버스는 사람들이 가만히 서 있기 힘들 만큼 무지막지하게 흔들린다.
... ... 고려대 한국어 대사전, 연세 한국어 사전

[발췌: Stiglitz] The Measurement of Wealth: Recessions, Sustainability and Inequality (2015)


출처: J. Stiglitz, NBER Working Paper, Jul 2015.



※ 발췌 (excerpt):

ABSTRACT:

This paper considers two central problems in our statistical frameworks which impair the ability to use wealth to assess economic sustainability or the impact of economic downturns. Some increases in wealth may reflect increased economic rents─in particular, land and exploitation rents─and their capitalized value, unrelated to an increase in the productive capacity of the economy. Another major problem in our wealth accounts is the "missing capital" required to explain the marked decrease in economic output, at the time of recession and in the years following, that cannot be fully accounted for by a decrease in measured inputs. When account is taken of this missing capital, the adverse effects of austerity appear much greater than suggested by the standard national income accounts.

INTRODUCTION

( ... ) These measurement problems have, in turn, led to confusion concerning the interpretation to be given to the dramatic increase in the wealth-output ration in recent decades.

The Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress emphasized the central role of wealth in the assessment of ^sustainability^. The proposition was simple: if wealth (with a growing population, wealth per capita), appropriately measured, was non-decreasing, then the given path of consumption could be sustained in the future.[n]1  Commission noted, however, that there might be significant problems in the valuation of assets─exemplified by real estate bubbles (which might give the impression that wealth was larger than it was and that, therefore, the economy was on a sustainable path when in fact it was not, as occurred in the 2008 financial crisis).  ( ... ... )

But standard measures of "wealth" may not adequately reflects sustainability for other reasons, or more broadly an ^increase^ in measured wealth may not reflect the ability of the economy to sustain higher rates of consumption. Here, we focus on three key instances, in two of which an increase in wealth does not measure an increase in future productive capacities and in one of which our wealth metrics do not capture a diminution in the economy's productive potential.


Two anomalies [n]2
[n]2. The ideas in this section are elaborated upon in Stiglitz (2015a,b).

The possibility that there might not be a close correspondence between measured wealth and a variable ("K" for captial) that assesses the future productive potential of the economy helps explain a disquieting aspect of Piketty's recent book. [n]3: He showed that the wealth-output ratio increased enormously in recent decades. In spite of this, average wages did not increase, and interest rates did not fall. It is hard to obtain such results in any standard production function ^if we interpret wealth as capital.^

There is a second puzzle. It has been observed that the labor's share of income is decreasing. There is a wealth of evidence arguing that the elasticity of substitution is less than unity.[n]4  If wealth is increasing, relative to labor supply, then the share of labor should be increasing.

But these puzzles are immediately resolved if he measured wealth is not what is meant by productive capital. Wealth and capital are both aggregates, but they represent different aggregates. It is possible that wealth has gone up, but productive capital has not gone up commensurately, or may even have gone down. That appears to have been what has happened in several countries.[n]5

A quick look at some of the key sources of increases of wealth shows that some may not lead to an increase in the economy's productive potential─and some may even lead to a  decrease in its potential.

I. Land

The most important source of the disparity between the growth of wealth and the growth of productive capital is land: much of the increase in wealth is an increase in the value of land─not associated with any increase in the ^amount^ of land (and, therefore, of the productivity of the economy). An increase in the value of land in the Riviera or in Southampton does not increase the productive capacities of land. Even if measured wealth has increased, if the value of 'K" has decreased, the economy's future productive potential has decreased: the amount of land is no greater now than it was fifty years ago.

Why the value of land might increase (and in particular, why it might have increased so dramatically in recent decades) is a question I discuss more extensively elsewhere. (See Stigliz, 2015a,b,c.) Note, for instance, that if the rents associated with land are fixed and last in perpetuity, then a slight decrease in the (long term real) interest rate can lead to a large increase in the value of land.[n]6  As we noted earlier, the Commission, deliberating as a housing bubble was forming in the United States, Spain, and many other countries, could not help observe that market prices of land and other assets may not represent "equilibrium prices," i.e. may not even provide an accurate assessment of the present discounted value of future rents to be derived from the asset. (That is why the Commission took the eclectic approach of suggesting a dashboard that would include along with value measures physical metrics, e.g. of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and changes in those numbers.)
[n]6. If R is the rent from the land, and r is the real interest rate, then the value of land Vt =R/r, so that there is an equiproportionate increase in the value of land from a permanent decrease in the real interest rate.

Bubbles are a pervasive and recurrent aspect of market economies. While recessions may represent "corrections", the economy may not fully correct the prices of real estate, so the economy simply moves from one bubble path to another.[n]7

The central point of this section is simple: an increase in wealth reflecting an increase in the value of real estate does not, in any way, measure an increase in the productive capacity of the economy.


II. Increased rents capitalized in financial assets.[n]8
[n]8. Some of the ideas in this section are elaborated on in greater length in Stiglitz 2015a.
Some increases in wealth (as conventionally measured) may reflect increased economic rents, unrelated to an increase in the productive capacity of the economy. Rather, they reflect an increase in the ability of those in the financial sector, or more broadly, "capitalists", to exploit others─workers, consumers, and ordinary citizens. The result is that overall, changes in measured wealth in recent decades probably overstate true "capital" accumulation. ( ... )

Such would be the case if the average degree of monopoly in the economy increases─if, for instance, network economies became more important, so that the fraction of the economy in which monopolies or oligopolies dominate is increased.
While hard to quantify, and varying from country to country, in almost all countries these exploitive rents are significant, and in many countries they seem to have gone up significantly.

The effective degree of monopoly could increase as well if firms get better at exploiting whatever market power they have─if, for instance, firms get better in discriminating among different categories of customers.

Typically, the value of these rents gets capitalized into the value of financial assets─in the value of those who can lay claim to the monopoly rents. Such exploitation represents a redistirbution from workers to capitalists, not an increase in the productive capacity of the economy. ( ... ... )

But there are more subtle forms of "exploitation." Government allows too-big-to-fail banks. The value of those banks is higher than they otherwise would be, ^because of government risk-absorption^. But the contingent-liability of the government is not capitalized; it doesn't show up in the national balance sheet, and so it appears as if the wealth of the economy has increased. ( ... ... )

Although the capitalization of ^exploitive^ rents may perhaps represent the largest part of the increase in financial wealth associated with an increase in rents, changes in taxes and regulatory regimes can have similar effects.

What's missing?

( ... ... )

[발췌] drug pricing, monopoly, rent-seeking


자료: Taking on the Drug Profiteers (James Surowiecki | NewYorker, Oct 2015)

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

( ... ) But Martin Shkreli, the CEO of Turing Phamaceuticals, managed it when his company said it was raising the price of a sixty-two-year-old lifesaving drug from $13.50 to $750 a pill. The move quickly became a major scandal; Shkreli was called "the most hated man in America." Yet the true scandal of Turing's profiteering scheme was that it was entirely legal.

Daraprim─which is used to treat toxoplasmosis, a condition that afflicts AIDS patients, among others─first came on the market back in 1953, so it has long since gone off patent. But what Shkreli recognized was that, even with a generic drug, regulatory barriers and a lack of competition can make big price hikes possible, In Daraprim's case, only one company had regulatory approval to sell the drug in the United States. So, in August, Turing bought those rights. Shkreli knew that, in principle, other companies could produce their own versions of Daraprim. But it seemed a fair bet that none of them would try. The market for Daraprim is smallㅡeight to twelve thousand prescriptions a year in the U.S.ㅡand any company that wanted to enter the market would have to go through the expensive and time-consuming process of getting F.D.A. approval. As it happens, several companies already make and sell a generic version of Daraprim abroad, but they weren't a worry, either, because they, too, would have to jump through the F.D.A.'s hoops to sell it here. Turing loaded the deck even further in its own favor by insisting on a model of "closed distribution" for the drug, restricting access to patients, doctors, and a limited number of distributors and pharmacies. In the unlikely event that another company wanted to produce Daraprim, it would be hard to buy enough of the drug to reverse-engineer.

Essentially, Shkreli exploiting rules devised to protect consumer safety in order to create a virtual monopoly and then charge whatever he wants. Monopolies are inherent to the drug industry in the U.S.: patients, in effect, are temporary monopolies. But we have patents because they give drug companies an incentive to invest in developing new drugs. There's no such justification in the case of Dararprim. Turing's price gouging does not reward innovation and it doesn't reflect the cost of production. In the United Kingdom, Daraprim sells for less than a dollar a pill.

Turing's business model is quintessential example of rent seeking: increasing profits not by adding real value for consumers but by exploiting loopholes. And, unfortunately, Turing is not alone. Last year, another company run by Shkreli acquired the rights to a kidney-disease drug called Thiola and raised the drug's price twentyfold. In 2011, K-V Pharmaceutical got F.D.A. approval and exclusive rights, it raised the price from around $15 to $1,500 an injection. There have also been alarming increase in the prices of common drugs like doxycycline. Generic-drug makers have been merging with each other, leaving fewer competitors. "Without price competition, the generic model fails," Gerald Anderson, a professor of public health at Johns Hopkins, told me. "Without competition, there are no market forces that limit price increases."

That doesn't mean there's nothing to be done. In place of closed distribution, the F.D.A. can require companies to make samples of their drugs available to competitors. ( ... ... )


자료 2: 5 Reasons Prescription Drug Prices Are So High in the U.S. (Sydney Lupkin | Time, Aug 2016)

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

The "most important factor" that drives prescription drug prices higher in the United States than anywhere else in the world is the existence of government-protected "monopoly" rights for drug manufacturers, researchers at Harvard Medical School report today.

The researchers reviewed thousands of studies published from January 2005 through July 2016 in an attempt to simplify and explain what has caused America's drug price crisis and how to solve it. They found that the problem has deep and complicated roots and published their findings in JAMA, the journal of the American Medical Association. The study was funded by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation with additional support provided by the Engelberg Foundation.

( ... ... )

Five key findings in the JAMA review:

1. Drug manufacturers in the U.S. set their own prices, and that’s not the norm elsewhere in the world.

( ... ... )

2. We allow “government-protected monopolies” for certain drugs, preventing generics from coming to market to reduce prices.

( ... ... )

3. The FDA takes a long time to approve generic drugs. ( ... )

4. Sometimes, state laws and other “well-intentioned” federal policies limit generics’ abilities to keep costs down. ( ... )

5. Drug prices aren’t really justified by R&D.

( ... ... )


자료 3: 'Rational Drug Pricing' (Mark Thoma | Economists' View, Sep 2015)

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

( ... ... ) Unfortunately, the current rules of the game in the U.S. pharmaceutical sector do not compensate for the weaknesses of patents. They amplify them. ... What should be done? Here are three key principles.

First, private R&D should certainly be protected by patents but only enough to elicit the needed R&D, not to produce outlandish profits. ...

Second, when the U.S. government pays for much of the R&D, it should share in the property rights. This should be a no-brainer, but in fact the NIH simply gives away most or all the intellectual property that it has financed, so the taxpayer pays part of the R&D bills but the returns are fully captured by private companies.

Third, when companies ... make profits from their U.S.-based research and U.S.-based production and sales, they should certainly pay U.S. taxes on their profits. The fact that the IRS lets them hide their profits in overseas tax

... ...

2017년 2월 16일 목요일

[발췌] 지속적 침체와 임금 없는 성장 (정태인, 2014)


지은이: 정태인 소장


※ 발췌:

하바드의 래리 서머스교수가 2013년, 30년대 앨빈 한센이 제기했던 “지속적 침체”(secular stagnation)을 다시 끄집어 낸 이래 세계 경제의 장기 전망을 둘러싼 논쟁이 계속 되고 있다. 캠브리지의 튤링스교수와 제네바대학원의 리차드 볼드윈이 최근 편집한 “지속적 침체: 사실, 원인, 그리고 치료”는 현재까지의 논의를 짧고 깔끔한 칼럼들로 정리하고 있다. 서머스, 크루그만, 고든, 아이켄그린 등 쟁쟁한 고수들이 모두 등장하지만 합의와는 거리가 멀다는 점에서 이 주제가 왜 논쟁적인지를 여실 보여주고 있다.

( ... ... )

하지만 지금처럼 가계와 기업 모두 저축을 하고 소비나 투자를 하지 않는다면 완전고용을 위해서는 급기야 마이너스 실질이자율이 필요하게 될지도 모른다. 명목이자율을 마이너스로 만들 방법은 없으니, 4% 이상의 인플레이션을 일으켜야 한다는 주장(크루그만)도 나온다. 일본의 “잃어버린 20년”은, 지난 30년간 “대순항(Great Moderation)” 때 합의된 거시정책이 별 효과가 없다는 것을 증명했다. 독립적 중앙은행이 2% 내로 인플레이션을 잡고 경기에 따라 이자율을 조작하거나 때때로 확대재정정책을 사용하는 것 말이다. 2008년 세계금융위기 이후 미국, 유럽, 그리고 일본이 차례 차례 양적 완화(Quantative Easing)라는 비정통적 정책에 매달린 것도 이 때문이다.

이 보고서의 필자들은 “지속적 침체”에 찬성하든 아니든, 현재 세계경제가 수렁에 빠진 이유로 인구 고령화불평등의 심화를 모두 꼽는다. 경제활동에 참가하는 젊은 인구의 비중이 줄어든다면, 그리고 생산성 증가율이 충분하지 않다면 경제성장율은 떨어질 것이고 초저금리가 된다고 하더라도 노후를 위해 저축을 늘리려 할 것이다. 또 전 세계적으로 소비가 침체하는 가운데 투자를 늘리는 기업은 없을 것이다.

뿐만 아니라 자산과 소득의 불평등이 심해진다면 다시 한번 저축이 늘어난다.  ( ... ... )

학자들은 2008년 세계금융위기가 터졌을 때 “대공황”(the Great Depression)이라는 이름을 피해 굳이 대불황(the Great Recession)이라고 이름을 만들었다. 그 만큼 대공황과 전쟁의 기억이 싫었기 때문일 것이다. 나는 그 때 이미 “장기침체”(the Long Recession)라고 불렀는데 위에서 본 바와 같은 장기적인 원인 말고도 전 세계적으로 총수요를 부추길 방법을 찾기란 그리 쉽지 않아 보였기 때문이다.

한국 역시 마찬가지다. 내가 원장으로 있던 “새로운 사회를 여는 연구원”은 2012년 “리셋 코리아”라는 책을 내면서 한국의 1960년대 중반 이래의 “수출주도 성장”, 그리고 1990년대 중반 이래의 “수출주도+부채주도 성장”이 막을 내렸다고 진단했다.

미국의 경우 70년대 중반부터, 그리고 한국의 경우에는 1990년대 중반부터 실질임금 인상율이 실질노동생산성 증가율을 밑돌기 시작했다. 여기에서 비롯되는 총수요 부족을 해소하는 두가지 방법이 수출, 아니면 빚에 의한 소비다. 미국과 그리스, 이탈리아 등이 대표적인 부채주도로, 동아시아와 독일은 수출주도로 상당한 성장을 누렸다. 2008년 금융위기는 이러한 세계적 성장전략이 막을 내렸다는 것을 의미한다.

한국의 현재 상황은 수출도 안 되고, 빚에 의한 소비도 한계에 다다른 상태다. 이젠 실질임금과 노동생산성의 격차가 확대되는 정도를 넘어서 급기야 실질임금이 감소하기 시작했다. 이런 상황을 지난 연말 금융연구원의 박종규 선임연구위원은 “임금없는 성장과 기업저축의 역설”이라고 불렀다. 그의 계산에 따르면 2007년부터 2012년까지 5년 동안 실질임금은 2.3% 줄어든 반면, 실질노동생산성 증가율은 9.8%에 달했다. 전 세계적으로 볼 때 1995년에서 2012년까지 17년 동안 한국의 실질노동생산성은 OECD 18개국 가운데 가장 높았던 반면 실질임금 상승률은 꼴찌에서 세 번째였다. GDP에서 노동소득이 차지하는 비율(노동소득분배율)이 이들 나라 중에서 가장 빨리 감소했다는 얘기다.

기업소득은 빠르게 증가하는데 투자를 하지 않으니 “기업저축의 역설”이라고 할만한 상황이 도래했다. 이제 원리금 갚기에도 급급한 “절약의 역설”(케인즈)에 더해 “기업저축의 역설”이 추가된 것이다. 또 비정규직이나 시간노동을 늘려서 가까스로 고용율을 높였지만 전체 실질임금은 감소하고 있으니 이제 “고용없는 성장”을 넘어 “임금없는 성장”이다.

ILO의 일련의 연구에 따르면 한국은 임금주도성장, 또는 소득주도성장(한국은 자영업의 비율이 높으므로 임금주도로는 부족하다)을 택해야 하는 나라가 되었다. 노동소득분배율이 1% 증가했을 때 소비가 늘어나는 순효과가 투자나 수출에 미치는 역효과보다 더 크다는 얘기다. 더욱이 부경대 홍장표 교수의 계량경제학 분석에 따르면 장기적으로 노동소득분배율의 증가는 투자나 수출도 부추기는 것으로 나타났다.

중소기업은 한국의 실질임금을 마이너스로 만드는 데 가장 많이 기여했을 것이다. 만일 대기업이 제대로 하청 단가를 쳐주기만 하더라도 전체 실질임금은 크게 늘어날 수 있다. 즉 한국의 경우 경제민주화가 “기업저축의 역설”을 해소해서 전체 성장에 기여할 수 있다. 기업의 현금유보와 부자들의 자산과 소득에 대한 세금을 올려서 보편복지를 확충하는 것 역시 총수요를 증가시키는 데 일조할 것이다. 여기에 최근 붐을 일으키고 있는 사회적 경제가 충분히 지역에 뿌리를 내리도록 제도를 정비하고 기금 등에 의한 지원을 하는 것도 중요하다. 나아가서 경제 전체의 에너지 효율성을 높이는 생태투자를 정부가 주도한다면 금상첨화가 될 것이다. 서울시가 최근 에너지 제로의 임대주택을 건설한 것은 훌륭한 본보기이다.

이런 상황에서 “노동시장 유연화”라는 이름으로 “정규직 보호”의 해체를 꾀하는 것은 축구에서 자살골을 넣는 것과 마찬가지다. “경제민주화”와 “맞춤형 복지”를 내세워 당선된 대통령이 “경제민주화의 종료”와 “경제혁신”=규제완화 및 민영화에 몰두하고, “소득주도성장”을 내비쳐 인사청문회를 통과한 경제부총리가 “부채주도성장”(빚 늘려 집값과 전셋값을 올리려는 정책이 바로 그렇다)와 “대기업 임금 삭감”에 올인하는 한, 한국경제는 “지속적 침체”의 수렁 속으로 더욱 깊이 빠져들 수 밖에 없다.

Dic/ explanation/ to the extent that


자료 1: https://www.englishforums.com/English/WhatDoesExtentMean/wmhcm/post.htm

※ 발췌: From an explanation provided by a contributor:

In quite a few of them, the phrase─to the extent that─could be replaced by "if" without any change in meaning. ( ... )

The basic meaning is probably, "to the same degree that X is true, Y is also true." This works out to mean all of this:

  • If X is true, Y is true.
  • If X isn't true at all, neither is Y.
  • If X is a little bit true, then so is Y.
  • If X is mostly true, then Y is mostly true.
The truth of each "extends" to the same amount. Suppose someone says "To the extend that you like fruit, you'll like pomelos." This means:
  • If you like fruit, you'll like pomelos.
  • If you don't like fruit, you won't like pomelos.
  • If you like fruit a little, you'll like pomelos a little.
  • and so on.
Your liking of pomelos is directly tied to your liking of fruit.

But not all the examples are that simple, and those are the more interesting ones. They don't look easy to define. I think they are from legal and scholarly writing. The meaning still looks to me something like "if there is any truth to the statement XXX, then ..."

Here's an example:
To the extent that ordinary Americans have any understanding of the significant constitutional differences betweent the U.S. and Canada, they are probably aware of the differing approaches to hate speech.
To reword this without "to the extent that":
If ordinary Americans have any understanding of the significant constitutional differences between the U.S. and Canada, then probably what they are aware of are the differing approaches to hate speech.
Implied in there is that most Americans probably don't know a thing about these legal differences, and that the few who do, probably know about hate speech. I think sometimes "to the extent that" carries a value judgment that implies the extent is low and limited.

There are probably other subtleties.
... ...


자료 2: Use of ‘when’, ‘if’ and ‘to the extent that’

※ 발췌:

When is ambiguous. When is somewhat ambiguous, since it brings two clauses into a somewhat explanatory conjunction with each other, contains elements of conditionality and implies a reference to timing but does none of these things in a very precise manner. The conditionality is somewhat blurred because when may be interpreted as if ..., as as long as ..., and as during periods that .... The latter two interpretations do not necessarily contain crystal clear cut-off points as to whether or not a condition is met.

If is a condition. If refers to a clear-cut context of 'yes' or 'no', 'true' or 'false'. For example, "if the 100,000 boxes are delivered, the addressee shall pay €1 million". On its own, the sentence means that the delivery is the relevant point in time triggering the payment obligation and indicates that when only 99,999 boxes are delivered, payment has not yet become due.

Best practice. Do not use if and to the extent that: the phrase to the extent that inevitably implies that the condition to which the extent refers must be fulfilled in order to the following consequences to apply. In all cases, drop if and.


자료 3: ... ...

* * *

definitions and examples in dictionaries

2. the point or limit to which something extends or reaches
  • We reached the southernmost extent [= end] of the peninsula.
  • He swore to prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law. [= as fully as the law allows]
  • To what extent [= how far; how much] can they be trusted?

3. used to indicate the degree to which something exists, happens, or is true

  ▷ If you say that something is true to an extent, to some extent, or to a certain extent, you mean that it is partly true but not completely true.
  • To an extent, they're both right.
  • Some critics claim that the government is at fault, and, to a certain extent, that's true.
  ▷ Something that is true to a large extent or to a great extent is mostly true.
  • These traits are to a large extent inherited. [= these traits are mostly inherited]
  ▷ The phrases to the extent that^, to that extent, and to a greater/lesser extent are often used to describe the effect or importance of something in relation to something else.
  • To the extent that he encouraged their bad behavior, he's to blame for it. [= he's partly blame for their bad behavior because he encouraged it]
  • He encouraged their bad behavior, and to that extent he's to blame for it.
  • He studied only to the extent that was required to pass the exam. [= he studied just enough to pass the exam]
  • This new tax affects the middle class and, to a lesser extent, the rich.
  • This new tax affects everyone to a greater or lesser extent.[= it affects some people more that it does other people]
To the extent that or to such an extent that can also be used to say that something is true to a very extreme degree.
  • He was fearful to the extent that he refused to leave his house. [= he was so fearful that he refused to leave his house]
  • She has changed to such an extent that you wouldn't recognize her.



2017년 2월 15일 수요일

Song/ Schubert - Ständchen (Serenade)


  - Horowitz plays:


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 - 


2017년 2월 14일 화요일

Dic/ usages/ bake in



Care is needed when assuming that house prices should rise when interest rates fall. Yes, you can price housing as a bond, but there are implications. Essentially, if you do, you are also baking in a future recession. 
... source

Many knew Congress would face consequences down the road. "Everybody knew we were baking in a problem," Stretch said, because health care costs were skyrocketing and baby boomers would reach retirement by the end of the decade and begin to tax entitlement programs.
... source

Whether you think that's a bad thing or not, what seems clear is that the slower pace of construction in the last few decades has baked in a future shortage of affordable units. That may augur a time when the largest source of cheap, unsubsidized housing comes from single-family rental homes.
... source



[기사와 칼럼] 인간과 문명, 자연을 보는 시선들


태곳적부터 존재했던 인간과 자연의 상호 작용, 이 둘을 잇는 허리를 '문명'이라고 볼 수 있으려나. ...



1. Long Before Making Enigmatic Earthworks, People Reshaped Brazil's Rain Forest (NYT, Feb 2017)
"아마존의 밀림은 사람이 손대지 않은 자연 그대로의 숲이라고 많은 사람들이 생각하지만, 전혀 그렇지 않다. 아마존 지역의 고대인들은 이미 알려진 것보다 훨씬 오래전부터 열대 우림을 관리했다."
... Dr. Watling and her colleagues found that in contrast with the large-scale deforestation we see today — which threatens about 20 percent of the largest rain forest in the world — ancient indigenous people of the Amazon practiced something more akin to what we now call agroforestry.
“Indigenous communities have actually transformed the ecosystem over a very long time,” said Dr. Watling. “The modern forest owes its biodiversity to the agroforestry practices that were happening during the time of the geoglyph builders.” ...
cf. geoglyph: A large-scale drawing made on the ground by scratching or arranging lines of stones etc

2. We need nature and other species for our sanity (delmarvanow, Feb 2017)
... Current human societies have become the loneliest, most alienated, isolated, depressed, addicted and anxious in history. ... [People] don't belong, aren't needed, have no reason to exist. ... Thousands of other species likewise are losing their sense of belonging─so diminished in numbers that they can't find a mate, a pack or a community of other interdepdendent species within which to survive.
Altogether, 66 percent of our world’s wildlife will have vanished by 2020, according to the World Wildlife Fund’s 2016 “Living Planet Report.” Since 1970, populations of vertebrate animals (mammals, birds and fish) have already plummeted by more than 58 percent.

3. Climate Diaries: Scientists on the front lines in Antarctica (CBS, Feb 2017)

Song/ Historia de un Amor

French Latino - 



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2017년 2월 12일 일요일

[외서] Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises (Anwar Shaikh, 2016)


  • 서명: Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises
  • 지은이: Anwar Shaikh
  • 출판사/출판일: Oxford University Press USA, 10 Mar 2016
  • 출처: 아마존, OUP

※ 메모:
비주류 경제학 분야의 큰 이름에 속하는 한 분으로 수학과 통계 등 기술적 분석 방법의 대가로도 들은 바 있는 안와르 샤이크의 신간. (어떤 서평에서는 예전에 그가 쓴 무슨 글만으로도 노벨상을 받을 자격이 있다는 이야기가 보이는 것 같다.) 여전히 뉴욕의 New School for Social Research에서─30년째─교편을 잡고 있다고 나온다. 목차와 서평을 대충 보면 아주 학술적인 서적이다.
바뜨, 학술적인 서적이라지만, 분량이 1,024쪽 (윽! ^^;;).

Anwar Shaikh, Professor of Economics, New School for Social Research, New York
Anwar Shaikh is Professor of Economics at the Graduate Faculty of Political and Social Science of the New School University and Associate Editor of the Cambridge Journal of Economics. From 2000-2005, he was Senior Scholar and member of the Macro Modeling Team at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.
▷ 서평:

▷ Events
  • 그 밖에 이 책의 내용을 다루는 동영상 강좌도 여러 개 보인다.

차례

PART I. FOUNDATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Turbulent Trends and Hidden Structures
  • 3. Microfoundations and Macro Patterns
  • 4. Production and Costs
  • 5. Exchange, Money, and Price
  • 6. Capital and Profit

PART II. REAL COMPETITION
  • 7. The Theory of Real Competition
  • 8. Debates on Perfect and Imperfect Competition
  • 9. Competition and Interindustrial Relative Prices
  • 10. Competition, Finance, and Interest Rates
  • 11. International Competition and the Theory of Exchange Rates

PART III. TURBULENT MACRODYNAMICS
  • 12. The Rise and Fall of Modern Macroeconomic
  • 13. Classical Macrodynamics
  • 14. The Theory of Wages and Unemployment
  • 15. Modern Money and Inflation
  • 16. Growth, Cycles, and Crises
  • 17. Summary and Conclusions
...

2017년 2월 10일 금요일

Dic/ game the system


▷ game the system: to use rules or laws to get what you want in an unfair but legal way.

▷ game: manipulate (a situation), typically in a way that is unfair or unscrupulous.

  • it was very easy for a few big companies to game the system.
  • politicians blamed electricity generators for gaming the market.


What does "gaming the system" mean? (Quora)

Gaming the system (Wikipedia):
Gaming the system (also referred to as gaming the rules, bending the rules, abusing the system, cheating the system, milking the system, playing the system, or working the system) can be defined as using the rules and procedures meant to protect a system in order, instead, to manipulate the system for a desired income. ( ... )
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2017년 2월 8일 수요일

[외서 신간] The Production of Money: How to Break the Power of Bankers (2017)



얼마 전 통화 창조에 대해 문제를 제기하는 경제학 신간이 영국에서 또 나왔다. 전에 이름은 들었지만 별로 주목하지 않던 Ann Prttifor라는 경제학자(여성)다.

PrimeEconomics.org라는 곳의 웹페이지 실린 책소개에서 우측 화면의 필진을 대충 보니 경제학자도 보이고 사회학자도 보이고 은행 실무 업무로 성장하여 비판적인 금융 매체를 발간하는 편집인 등 수십 명이 보인다.

페이지의 About 코너를 보니, 그들의 미션이 이렇게 시작:
"We consider that conventional or ‘mainstream’ economic theory has proved of almost no relevance to the ongoing and chronic failure of the global economy and to the gravest threat facing us all: climate change." 
"Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME) is a network of macroeconomists, political economists and professionals from related disciplines who seek to engage with a diverse audience in order to de-mystify economic theories, policies and ideas. ... "


2017년 2월 5일 일요일

언어를 존중해요? 언어라는 도구를 값어치 있게 쓸 마음이 있습니까?


얼마 전 친구와 이야기하다가 우리 사회에서는 언어에 대한 존중이 없다는 말을 내가 했다. 개인의 문제에서나 친구와의 문제에서나, 집단의 문제에서나 더 넓게는 사회와 나라의 문제에서나 무슨 문제를 해결하고 복리를 증진하기 위한 도구로서 언어를 존중하는 마음이 없다는 것이 그때 그 자리에서 내가 하고 싶었던 이야기였다.
솔직하게 거울 앞의 자신을 보면서, 나를 존중하여 앞에 있는 사람의 얼굴을 보면서 언어를 값진 도구로 여기며 문제를 해결하려는 희망(혹은 그 무엇)이 우리에게 얼마나 있는 것일까?
이러한 예전의 생각이 갑자기 또 들었다. 사람들은 언어를 별로 존중하지 않는다. 중요한 도구라고 생각하지 않는다.
단순하게는 '4차 산업혁명'이라는 말이 언제부터인가 갑자기 유행하길래 이런 생각을 다시 하게 되었다. 이 말을 입에 올리는 사람 중에 자기 주변의 일상에서나 깊이 있는 미래에 대한 추론에서나 '혁명'을 느끼는 사람은 하나도 없는 것 같았다. 
뭐, 혁명이 본인 머리 속에 그려지고 자신에게 모종의 추상적이거나 구체적인 의미로 다가와요? 
어느 책에서 봤는지 모르겠지만, 영국에서 산업혁명이 한창 진행 중이었던 백여 년이 흐르는 시간 중의 한 시점, 1776년에 국부론을 쓰고 그 후로도 오래 살았을 아담 스미스가 정작 자신이 살던 시대에 산업혁명이란 것이 일어나고 있다는 것을 (아마도 전혀) 체감하지 못했다는 이야기를 본 적이 있다. 그래도 그는 후대의 역사가들이 설명하게 될 그 혁명의 내용을 자기 주변에서 면밀하게 관찰했던 것으로 알고 있다.
글쎄, 내가 보기에는 자기 주변도 관찰하지 않으면서 해외에서 수입된 말을 앵무새처럼 블라블라하는 게 아닌가 또 다시 의심하게 된다. 

... ...

[출판사 Verso가 뽑은] 묵시록적인 섬뜩한 문구의 메시지들, 그에 걸맞은 책 장사


출처: http://www.versobooks.com/blogs/3006-in-the-long-run-we-are-all-dead-verso-s-economics-bookshelf?discount_code=EconomicsMann


상기 출판사가 독자들에게 15권의 서적을 40% 할인가에 공급하면서 던지는 메시지다.


※ 발췌와 소감:

1. 단품으로서 어느 책의 가치와 장점을 피력하기보다 여러 책들이 다루는 화제들을 (대충) 관통하는 이미지를 던져서 독자들의 시선을 끌려는 시도 같기도 하다.

“Before capitalism will go to hell, it will for the foreseeable future hang in limbo, dead or about to die from an overdose of itself but still very much around, as nobody will have the power to move its decaying body out of the way.”─ Wolfgang Streeck
위 인용문 가운데 특히 마지막 구절이 섬뜩하지만, '아무도 어쩌지를 못한다'는 이미지가 공감할 만하다. 마치 마르크스의 Communist Manifesto에 등장하는 몇몇 이미지들을 연상하게 한다 (인용된 이 책은 2016년 10월에 나왔다).

2.
After years of ill health, capitalism is now in a critical condition.
  • Growth has given away to stagnation;
  • inequality is leading to instability;
  • and confidence in the money economy has all but evaporated.
위 문구는 편집자가 직접 쓴 것 같은데, 세계 경제─자본주의가 지금은 세계 경제를 장악한 지 오래이니 세계 경제와 자본주의는 거의 동의어다─의 심각한 증상을 잘 요약한 것 같다. 성장은 나타나지 않고 정체만 반복되며, 불평등이 불안정을 조장한다는 진단은 충분히 공감할 만하다. 

마지막 세 번째에서 '화폐 경제에 대한 신뢰가 거의 증발해 버렸다'는 말은 언뜻 와닿지 않는 듯하지만, '화폐 경제(money economy)'란 표현은 아마도 'financial economy'라든가 'financial system'와 같은 용어가 일반 독자들에게 전문 용어 같은 어감을 주기 때문에 이런 용어들을 피해서 단순하게 표현하려는 시도인 것 같다. 즉 세 번째 요약은 '통화 정책(양적 완화라든가 금리 정책이라든가)을 포함하여 돈을 운용하는 모든 시스템으로부터 이로움이라곤 구경하지 못한 대중들의 신뢰가 사라져 버렸다'라고 생각해 보면 충분히 이해할 만하다.

3.
We present a reading list of titles that examine our current economic state, including Wolfgang Streeck's critically-acclaimed analysis, How Will Capitalism End? and Geoff Mann's provocative new book on Keynsianism, political economy, and revolution.
위 출처에 소개되는 15권 중에 (한국에서도) 쓸 만한 책들이 몇 권 있지 않겠어요? 15권 중 첫 두 권을 앞세웠다 (하나는 2016년 10월, 다른 하나는 2017년 1월 신간).

2017년 2월 4일 토요일

[발췌] A Money System for the People─If We Want It


출처: P2P Foundation, 3 Feb 2017
지은이: Matthew Slater
자료: https://blog.p2pfoundation.net/a-money-system-for-the-people-if-we-want-it/2017/02/03


※ 발췌:
Matthew Slater builds and implements open source software for social & complementary currencies. As a full nomad, he knows first hand many people and projects in his fields. In 2009 he co-founded with Tim Anderson the Swiss association Community Forge which freely hosts web sites for LETS and timebanks. He is also active in thinking and educating about money. In 2013 he co-created the 'trading floor game' with Sybille Saint Girons. In 2015 he co-authored the Money and Society MOOC with Professor Jem Bendell. In 2016 he co-authored the Credit Commons white paper with Tim Jenkin.

※ 발췌:

Money creation, like alchemy, is shrouded in ambiguous language and yields eternal wealth! For most of history these secrets have been used to empower sovereigns to spend money without the painful business of taxing or borrowing. Those foolish enough to try to grasp it with their rational minds are beffuddled by unexpected politics, propaganda and paradoxes. In modern times this power now resides almost absolutely with banks, who lend money which doesn’t exist, and reap the interest as if it did! Are the alchemic fumes making your head spin?

What if those proto-chemists were found to be not ‘making gold’ but merely charlatans ‘taking gold’? Some sovereigns managed money better than others, but now that power resides with private corporations. The language of ‘wealth creation’ masks the real intention which is extract money from society as fast as possible, to lock it up in tax havens, and to drive the masses, deprived of a medium of exchange, back to the bank to borrow more! The social conseqences are increasingly acknowledged (although not by banks) to include the rich-poor divide, short-termism, erosion of democracy, the military industrial complex and, via the growth imperative, climate change itself.

Users of money and financial services seem to have very little influence in the matter. However much we disapprove of banks, boycotting them (as I do) makes normal life impossible. Banks are part of our social DNA, that’s what Too Big To Fail means.

The problem is not that saving and lending are critical functions which only banks can do. Indeed the idea that money is some kind of stuff which we rent is merely a misleading metaphor. The problem is that only a bank can underwrite your IOU so that everyone else will accept it. If all the banks and bank accounts were taken down in some Mr Robot scenario, the only money left would be a tiny volume of notes and coins. We wouldn’t be able to pay each other and the economy would stop dead.

( ... ... )

So the essence of bypassing banks, at least to the extent that we don’t use money to pay interest and taxes, is understanding how IOUs work. In the Irish banking strikes of 1970s, the whole economy ran on IOUs in the form of cheques. Allegedly pub landlords took the role of judging creditworthiness. It wasn’t the most efficient system but it worked. Similarly in Greece before the Euro, it was common practice for strong local businesses to pay their bills by cheque, and for that cheque to circulate as money before returning to the business. Both of these are examples of interest free money creation, and taken to scale, they create stable economies (no more boom and bust) in which credit is always available.

So how could this be instituted today? ( ... ... )

2017년 2월 2일 목요일

[용어] Randomized controlled trial


자료 1. http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=39532

Randomized controlled trial (RCT): A study in which people are allocated at random (by chance alone) to receive one of several clinical interventions. One of these interventions is the standard of comparison or control. The control may be a standard practice, a placebo ("sugar pill"), or no intervention at all. Someone who takes part in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) is called a participant or subject. RCTs seek to measure and compare the outcomes after the participants receive the interventions. 
In sum, RCTs are quantitative, comparative, controlled experiments in which investigators study two or more interventions in a series of individuals who receive them in random order. The RCT is one of the simplest and most powerful tools in clinical research.

자료 2. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMHT0025811/
Randomized Control Trial (RCT). A study in which the participants are assigned by chance to separate groups; neither the researchers nor the participants can choose which group.
In the late 1940s, groups of researchers in Europe and the USA led one of the most important developments of modern medical science: they refined the methods for testing treatments in randomized controlled studies or "trials.""Randomized" means that volunteers are divided into groups by chance, like in a lottery. One of the groups then uses the treatment being tested. The experiences of the other group of people provide control or comparison data.
This makes it possible to see what effects the treatment actually has, and to make sure that the groups are not different from the start — for example, because one group has healthier people in it. This simple approach provides a way to find out if a treatment is effective, useless or even harmful.

자료 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomized_controlled_trial
A randomized controlled trial (or randomized control trial. RCT) is a type of scientific (often medical) experiment which aims to reduce bias when testing a new treatment. The people participating in the trial are randomly allocated to either the group receiving the treatment under investigation or to a group receiving standard treatment(or placebo treatment) as the control.
Randomization minimises selection bias and the different comparison groups allow the researchers to determine any effect of the treatment when compared with the no treatment (control) group, while other variables are kept constant. 
RCT is often considered the gold standard for a clinical trial. RCTs are often used to test the efficacy or effectiveness of various types of medical intervention and may provide information about adverse effects, such as drug reactions. Random assignment of intervention is done after subjects have been assessed for eligibility and recruited, but before the intervention to be studied begins. ( ... ... )