2015년 10월 28일 수요일

Dic: shape up

  • There are also indications that a major tank battle may be shaping up for tonight.
  • The accident is already shaping up as a significant environmental disaster.
  • It's shaping up to be a terrible winter.
  • I did have a few worries about how Hugh and I would shape up as parents.
  • Girls are being recruited now. I heard they are shaping up very well.
  • It is no use simply to tell adolescents to shape up and do something useful.

* * *

1. If sth ^is shaping up^, it is starting to develop or seems likely to happen.

2. If you ask how sbd or sth ^is shaping up^, you want to know how well they are doing in a particular situation or activity.

3. If you tell sbd to shape up, you are telling them to start behaving in a sensible and responsible way.

CF. shape up:

1. to improve your behaviour or work: You kids had better shape up, because I'm in no mood to fool around.

2. to make progress in a particular way: Ken's plans for the business are shaping up nicely.

Immigration is shaping up as a major issue in the campaign.

It's shaping up to be a pretty big party.


2015년 10월 27일 화요일

Dic: syntax "A1, if not A2"

자료 1: http://english.stackexchange.com/questions/88332/meaning-of-schemas-are-changed-infrequently-if-at-all

자료 2: https://www.englishforums.com/English/IfAtAllUsage/hqcvr/post.htm

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

The basic structure is <A1, if not A2>, where A2 is an adjective or adverb in the same scale as A1, but more extreme. For example:

  • reddish, if not red
  • most, if not all
  • some, if not most
  • sometimes, if not often

if A2 is a negative, however, the double negative <not A2> looks odd or ungrammatical, and is rewritten as a positive.
  • few, if *not none → few, if any
  • rarely, if *not never → rarely, if ever

Your example [in the source link 1] is one of these rewritten double negatives:
  • infrequently, if *not not at all → infrequently, if at all

The sense in all these is "I assert A1, but I will not go quite so far as to assert A2, although I hold it open as a possibility."

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

"if at all" occurs after expressions of scarcity, smallness, and the like─words like ^little^, ^few^, ^slow^, ^barely^, ^hardly^. And it reduces that small amount of something to zero.

  • More women are having ^fewer^ children, if at all.
= More women are having ^fewer^ children, if they are having ^any^ children at all.
= More women are having fewer children, or they are not having ^any^ children.
  • Use alcohol in moderation, if at all.
= Use alcohol in moderation, if you use ^any^ alcohol at all
= Use alcohol in moderation, or don't use any alcohol.

^If at all^ also occurs in questions.
  • When, ^if at all^ will the economic recession end?
= ^When^ will the economic recession end, if it does end ^at any time^?
  • How will blogging affect the practice of law, if at all?
= ^How^ will blogging affect the practice of law, if it has ^any^ effect at all?
  • In what way, if at all, does global warming affect you?
= ^In what way^ does global warming affect you, if it affects you ^in any way^ at all?

2015년 10월 26일 월요일

Dic: feed into

feed into: (phrasal verb) to have an effect on something or help to make it happen.

  • The influence of Italian designer fashion feeds into sports fashion.

cf. feed: (intransitive) to move steadily, as into a machine for processing. to be channeled; flow.
  • This road feeds into the freeway.
  • Fuel feeds into the engine.
  • Bullets fed into a machine gun.
.... LDOCE & various dics

2015년 10월 24일 토요일

마음속 소리

마음속에는─외부의 방해만 없다면─자기도 모르게 '소리 이미지(형용 모순!)'로 만들어진 배경 음악이 항상 흐르는 것 같다.

잘 관찰하고 추적해 보자.

2015년 10월 23일 금요일

[자료] About Simon-Ehrlich Bet

자료 1: The Two Simon Bets (Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford Univ.)

※ 발췌(excerpt): 

One of the most misunderstood events in environmental politics was "the bet" between Paul Ehrlich, physicists John Harte and John Holdren, and Julian Simon. The facts of that incident are explained in ^Betrayal of Science and Reason^, by Paul and Anne Ehrlich (Island Press, 1996, pp. 100-104), excerpted below:
"In 1990 [Julian Simon] won a much publicized ten-year bet with ecologist Paul Ehrlich [and physicists John Harte and John Holdren] .wagering correctly that the price of a basket of five metals would fall between 1980 and 1990 (meaning supplies became more plentiful)." (Norman Myers and Julian Simon, 1994)[34] "[The bet affirmed] cornucopian claims that the supply of resources is becoming more abundant, not more scarce." (Ronald Bailey, 1993)[35]
In 1980, Julian Simon repeatedly challenged environmental scientists to bet against him on trends in prices of commodities, asserting that humanity would never run out of anything.[36] Paul and the other scientists knew that the five metals in the proposed wager were not critical indicators and said so at the time.[37] They emphasized that the depletion of so-called renewable resources─environmental resources such as soils, forests, species diversity, and ground water─is much more indicative of the deteriorating state of society's life-support system.
n[36] See, e.g., J. Simon, 1981, ^The Ultimate Resource^, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, p. 27.
cf. ^The Ultimate Resources 2^, 1996 
Nonetheless, after consulting with many colleagues, Paul and Berkeley physicists John Harte and John Holdren accepted Simon's challenge in late 1980, jointly betting a total of $1000 ($200 each on five metals),[38] rather than listen to him charge that environmental scientists were unwilling to put their money where their mouths were. Perhaps it was a mistake, but it can be quite satisfying to skewer an adversary on his own terms and they thought they had a good chance of winning.

Prices of all five metals (chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten) had gone up between 1950 and 1975. But the prices of three of the five went down in the 1980s, in part because a recession in the first half of that decade slowed the growth of demand for industrial metals worldwide. Ironically, a prominent reason for the slower industrial growth was the doubling of world oil prices in 1979.[39] Indeed, the price of oil probably was a factor in the prices of metals in both years, being unprecedently high in 1980 and unprecedently low in 1990. Paul and his colleagues ended up paying a small sum on the bet, even though the price of a ton of copper (Simon's favorite example) had risen in constant 1980 dollars from $1970 per ton in 1975 to $2166 in 1989.[40]

Simon issued a challenge for a second bet in 1995. In an essay in the San Francisco Chronicle, he claimed that "^Every^ measure of material and environmental welfare in the Unite States and in the world has improved rather than deteriorated. ^All^ long-run trends point in exactly the opposite direction from the projections of the doomsayers"[41] (our emphasis). Simon asserted that everything will get better; he wanted ecologists to bet that "any trend pertaining to material human welfare" will get worse. Paul and Stephen Schneider, a climatologist at Stanford University, offered to bet Simon $1000 per trend that each of the following 15 continental and global indicators "pertaining to human welfare" will worsen over the next decade.[42]
1. The three years 2002-2004 will on average be warmer than 1992-1994. (Rapid climate change associated with global warming could pose a major threat of increasing droughts and floods.) 
2. There will be more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than in 1994. (Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas driving global warming.)

3. There will be more nitrous oxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than in 1994. (Nitrous oxide is another greenhouse gas that is increasing due to human disruption of the nitrogen cycle.) 
4. The concentration of ozone in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) will be greater in 2004 than in 1994. (Tropospheric ozone is a component of smog that has important deleterious effects on human health and crop production.)
5. Emissions of the air pollutant sulfur dioxide in Asia will be significantly greater in 2004 than in 1994. (Sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere becomes sulfuric acid, the principal component of acid rain, and it is associated with direct damage to human health, forests, and crops.)
6. There will be less fertile cropland per person in 2004 than in 1994. (Much of Earth's best farmland is being paved over, but even if it weren't, population growth will reduce per-capita acreage.) 
7. There will be less agricultural soil per person in 2004 than in 1994. (Erosion virtually everywhere far exceeds rates of soil generation.) 
8. There will be on average less rice and wheat grown per person in 2002-2004 than in 1992-1994. (Rice and wheat are the two most important crops consumed by people.) 
9. In developing nations there will be less firewood available per person in 2004 than in 1994. (More than a billion people today depend on fuelwood to meet their energy needs.) 
10. The remaining area of virgin tropical moist forests will be significantly smaller in 2004 than in 1994. (Those forests are the repositories of some of humanity's most precious living resources, including the basis for many modern pharmaceuticals worldwide.) 
11. The oceanic fisheries harvest per person will continue its downward trend and thus in 2004 will be smaller than in 1994. (Overfishing, ocean pollution, and coastal wetlands destruction will continue to take their toll.) 
12. There will be fewer plant and animal species still extant in 2004 than in 1994. (Other organisms are the working parts of humanity's life support systems.) 
13. More people will die of AIDS in 2004 than did in 1994 (as the disease takes its toll of already infected individuals, continues to spread in Africa, and takes off in Asia.) 
14. Between 1994 and 2004, sperm counts of human males will continue to decline and reproductive disorders will continue to increase. (Over the past fifty years, sperm counts worldwide may have declined as much as 40 percent. Paul and Steve bet this trend will continue due to the widespread use and environmental persistence of hormone-disrupting synthetic organic chemical compounds.) 
15. The gap in wealth between the richest 10 percent of humanity and the poorest 10 percent will be greater in 2004 than in 1994. 

We don't argue that all environmental trends are unfavorable, simply that many of the most important ones are very unfavorable and thus demand prompt attention. It is sensible to focus on the things that need fixing rather than on those that don't. Virtually all long-term trends have short-term fluctuations; thus in response to Simon's challenge, Steve and Paul picked 15 trends to avoid having a statistical fluke decide this bet.[43]

Yet Simon refused to accept the wager, going back on his original challenge by saying he will gamble only on "direct" measures of human welfare such as life expectancy, leisure time, and purchasing power.[44] Steve and Paul refused to let Simon change his bet for several reasons. First, ( ... ... )

Steve and Paul deliberately limited their list to negative environmental or social trends because they are the ones that need to be fixed regardless of whether other trends are positive. Policies and practices are established by area by area. ( ... ... )

A second reason for not letting Simon off the hook is that he, not the "doomsayers," prominently declared "all trends" to be positive. Steve and Paul indulged in this betting foolishness in the first place in the hope of (1) getting Simon to retract his socially dangerous and scientifically ridiculous assertion that all material or environmental welfare trends were positive, (2) getting Simon to contribute $10,000-15,000 to the environmental charities they select in 2005 to receive the winnings, or (3) getting the public to see that Simon blusters and asserts but won't back up his own rhetoric when seriously challenged. The third outcome was the one obtained.

Bets, of course, are a poor way to settle disputes about the human future, but Paul and his colleagues have been compelled to make two of them in an effort to counter the inaccurate information spread by Simon and others.[45] Scientists in all nations must be ready to counter the arguments of brownlash spokespersons who misinterpret information on what is happening to the environment. Such misinformation gives aid and comfort to those who promote unrestrained population growth and reckless consumption and in so doing threaten society's life-support systems. Rational scholarly discourse is all very well, but it does not hold sway where controversies affecting public policies are concerned.

( ... ... )

자료 2: But Why Did Julian Simon Win The Paul Ehrlich Bet? (Tim Worstall | Forbes, Jan 2013)

자료 3: Betting on the Apocalypse (Paul Sabin | New York Times, Sep 2013)

2015년 10월 22일 목요일

[프로그래머, 폴 그레이엄의] How to Disagree

자료 1: http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html (Paul Graham, http://www.paulgraham.com/)
자료 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Graham_(computer_programmer)#cite_note-22

※ 발췌(excerpt): Graham's hierarchy of disagreement

2015년 10월 18일 일요일

[자료: Diane Coyle's] Why GDP Statistics Are Failing Us (U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, ...)

출처: U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation
자료j: http://www.uschamberfoundation.org/article/why-gdp-statistics-are-failing-us

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

Current measurements of gross domestic product offer an incomplete account of the components of the digital economy.

( ... ... )

[외신 발췌] L'Aquitaine expérimente le revenu de base (Le Vif.be, Jul 2015)

출처: Le Vif.be
자료: http://www.levif.be/actualite/international/l-aquitaine-experimente-le-revenu-de-base/article-normal-404977.html

※ 발췌 (excerpt):
Après la ville d'Utrecht aux Pay-Bas, c'est au tour de la région de l'Aquitaine, en France, d'expérimenter le revenu de solidarité active (RSA). Lors de sa séance plénière du 6 juillet, le Conseil Régional d'Aquitaine a choisi à l'unanimité une motion proposée par le groupe Europe Ecologie-Les Verts pour l'instauration d'une revenu de base.
* * * 
L'instauration d'une telle mesure promet le versement, chaque mois, aux personnes dont les revenus ne sont pas suffisants pour vivre, d'une somme d'argent établie à l'avance. Par exemple, à Utrecht, lors du test qui sera mené en 2016, an adulte seul recevra 900 euros et un couple ou une famille recevra 1300 euros.
L'idée est de fournir aux personnes dans le besoin un revenu au moins équivalent au seuil de pauvreté de son pays. Les defenseurs du revenu universel sont persuadés que l'instauration d'une telle mesure permettra de supprimer la misère et de réduire drastiquement les inégalités afin de développer l'émancipation des personnes et la sphère non marchande.
Mais toute décision radicale doit d'abord être expérimentée. L'Aquitaine a en effet prévu d'effectuer une étude faisabilité qui nécessite un partenariat fort avec l'Etat français. La région compte, lors de la phase test, verser automatiquement et surtout inconditionnellement le RSA, fixé à 512 euros, à toutes les personnes qui y ont droit, qu'elles se soient inscrites ou non au programme.
L'idée est cependant loin de faire l'unanimité pour la majeure partie des députés français, même de gauche. ( ... ... )

2015년 10월 17일 토요일

2015년 10월 14일 수요일

About H. Macmillan's "Most of our people have never had it so good."

1. Harold Macmillan's 'never had it so good' speech followed the 1950s boom (Telegraph, Nov 2010)

2. Fifties Britain: Never so good? Or too good to be true? (National Archives)

* * *

※ excerpt of the above no. 1 article:

Harold Macmillan's 'never had it so good' speech followed the 1950s boom

By Martin Evans, 
The Telegraph, 19 Nov 2010

Full employment combined with an unprecedented consumerism meant millions of Britons saw their standard of living rise.

Mr. Macmillan, who was speaking at a Tory rally in Bedford six months after becoming the Conservative Prime Minister, painted a rosy picture of the economy, which was benefiting from increased production in major industries such as coal and steel.

Wages, exports and investment were all up and compared to the austerity of the war years, his assessment rang true for many people across the land. Mr. Macmillan told Tory supporters: "Go around the country, go to the industrial towns, go to the farms and you will se a state of prosperity such as we have never had in my lifetime─nor indeed in the history of this country."

But despite the boom, the Prime Minister remained desperately concerned about inflation, describing the dilemma of how to maintain growth and employment but keep a lid on prices as the "64,000 dollar question."

His answer was to increase production while calling for restraint and common sense in wage demands and spending. Two years after the famous speech, Mr. Macmillan led the Tories to a resounding election victory.

But pressure at home and on the international stage soon saw the dream unravel. [:]

  • In 1961, concerned about the spectre of rising inflation Mr. Macmillan imposed a wage freeze, which proved deeply unpopular.
  • The government was also rocked by its failure to join the EEC and the Prime Minister's support for African independence.
  • In 1963 the Profumo affair, in which the Secretary of State for War was forced to resign after his affair with the mistress of a Russian spy was exposed, shattered the government's reputation.

Mr Macmillan resigned a few months later due to his health.

2015년 10월 11일 일요일

[외신 발췌] The World economic order is collapsing and this time there seems no way out (2015년 10월)

출처: Will Hutton, Guardian, 11 Oct 2015

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

( ... ... )

Yet there is a parallel collapse in the economic order that is less conspicuous: the hundreds of billions of dollars fleeing emerging economies, from Brazil to China, don’t come with images of women and children on capsizing boats. Nor do banks that have lent trillions that will never be repaid post gruesome videos. However, this collapse threatens our liberal universe as much as certain responses to the refugees. Capital flight and bank fragility are profound dysfunctions in the way the global economy is now organised that will surface as real-world economic dislocation.

The IMF is profoundly concerned, warning at last week’s annual meeting in Peru of $3tn (£1.95tn) of excess credit globally and weakening global economic growth. But while it knows there needs to be an international co-ordinated response, no progress is likely. ( ... ... )

( ... ... )

[기사 발췌] 30대그룹 계열사 ⅓ '재무부실'…완전자본잠식 80곳 (연합뉴스, 2015년 10월)

출처: 연합뉴스, 2015년 10월 11일

※ 발췌:

국내 30대 그룹 계열사 3곳 중 1곳꼴로 부채비율이 지나치게 높거나 완전자본잠식 상태에 빠져 있는 등 재무구조에 문제가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

11일 재벌닷컴에 따르면 2014회계연도 개별 감사보고서 기준 30대 그룹 계열사 1천50곳 가운데 완전자본잠식 상태 계열사는 80곳, 부채비율이 200%를 넘는 계열사는 246곳으로 집계됐다. 이 두 사례를 합친 숫자는 326곳으로, 전체 계열사의 31.0%에 해당한다. 30대 그룹 계열사의 3분의 1 정도가 재무 위험 상태에 있는 셈이다. 이는 공기업 및 금융회사를 제외한 자산 상위 30대 그룹 비금융 계열사를 기준으로 분석한 결과다. ( ... ... )

2015년 10월 7일 수요일

[기사 읽기] 초고층 '마천루' 경쟁 뛰어든 오피스텔…몸값도 오를까 (2015.10)

출처: 이데일리 (2015.10.7.)

※ 발췌 및 읽기:

(1) "부동산 시장에서 초고층 오피스텔은 손에 꼽을 정도로 귀하다. 건축비는 많이 들지만 분양가는 아파트보다 저렴해야 팔리기 때문에, 평균 15층 이하로 설계되는 게 일반적이다."
이 진술을 읽어 보면,
'초고층 오피스텔은 건축비가 많이 드는 데다, 오피스텔은 아파트보다 저렴해야 팔리기 때문에 15층 이하의 저층으로 짓는 게 일반적이다.'  ......... (A)
라는 이야기다. 고층은 저층보다 건축비가 많이 들어서 아파트보다 저렴해야 하는 오피스텔은 일반적으로 저층으로 설계한다는 것이다. 이어지는 기사를 보면 이렇다.
(2) "그런데 최근 들어 상황이 달라졌다. 소형 아파트 품귀 현상이 일자 아파트를 닮은 오피스텔, 이른바 '아파텔'이 대거 쏟아지는가 하면 아파트보다 높은 고층 오피스텔도 속속 등장하고 있다."
(3) "건축비 부담 등으로 잘 나오지 않던 초고층 오피스텔이 늘고 있는 것은 최근 시장 상황과 무관하지 않다는 게 전문가들의 설명이다. ... '저금리 기조 장기화와 소형 주택 선호도 급상승으로 수익형 부동산에 대한 투자자들의 관심이 높아지면서 공급 물량을 늘리려는 건설사 간 경쟁이 초고층 오피스텔 설계를 확산시킨 측면이 강하다.'"

이 (2)와 (3)의 설명은 위 (A)의 진술 ─오피스텔은 저렴해야 해서 건축비가 비싼 고층 설계가 아니라 저층 설계로 짓는다─과 달리, 최근의 시장 상황 때문에 오피스텔도 고층으로 짓게 되었다고 해설하고 있다. 비싼 건축비와 저렴해야 하는 가격의 모순에도 불구하고 초고층 오피스텔 설계를 출현시킨 그 시장 상황이란 무엇일까? 기사에 설명된 이유를 찾아 보면,
(가) 소형 아파트 품귀 현상과 소형 주택 선호도의 급상승 때문에 작은 면적의 오피스텔이 그 빈 공간을 메우고 있다는 것이다. 이 말은 초고층 오피스텔이 주거비를 낮추려는 실 거주자의 수요에 대응하는 것이라는 이야기다. 
그리고 (3)의 설명을 보면,
(나) 이런 실 거주자의 수요를 노리고 오피스텔을 투자 대상으로 구매하려는 투자자들의 관심이 저금리 기조를 배경으로 높아졌다는 것이다. 
그런데, 기사의 다른 곳을 보면 저층 오피스텔보다 초고층 오피스텔이 평당 매매가 훨씬 비싸다고 한다.

그렇다면 초고층 오피스텔을 비싼 가격에 매수하는 투자자와 저렴한 가격에 주거를 마련하려는 오피스텔 실 거주자 수요는 서로 무슨 상관인 것이며, 어떤 논리로 연결되는 것인가?

2015년 10월 6일 화요일

[외신 발췌] Barclays: Profit Margins Could Be Pointing Towards a Recession (Oct 2015)

출처: Bloomberg Business (Oct 5, 2015)

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

Barclays: Profit Margins Could Be Pointing Towards a Recession
─Will the recent fall in margins be the exception to the rule?

( ... ) The team, led by Jonathan Glionna, points out that profit margins in S&P 500 companies have declined by 60 basis points over the past 12 months. That's something which doesn't usually happen unless the economy is heading into a recession.
"We analyze the link between profit margins and recessions for the last seven business cycles, dating back to 1973. The results are not encouraging for the economy or the market ... Since 1973 there are six other examples. In five out of six, the decline in profit margins coincided with a recession." 

However, the firm is quick to point out that it does not expect the U.S. economy to start heading drastically lower, but it does recommend exercising some caution in the face of much higher market uncertainty.
"The one time it did not [presage recession] was in 1985. But, 1985 resembles 2015 because the decline in profit margins is primarily the result of lower oil prices. Our economists do not expect the U.S. to enter a recession in the near term ... Still, uncertainty in the economy and in the market has increased and this is often a good time to overweight the stocks of companies with high profit margins."

( ... ... )

[외신 발췌] Hot money is pouring out of emerging markets (Oct 2015)

출처: Business Insider / Wolf Street (Oct 4, 2015)

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

IMG and IIF, two of the most important global finance: "beware the dreaded fate of emerging markets."

The IIF warned this week that hot money is pouring out of emerging markets at a startling rate, primarily on the back of China’s crunching slowdown and rising fears of a looming US rate hike.

( ... ... )

This year capital outflows from emerging economies will surpass inflows for the first time since 1988. Residents sending cash out of the emerging markets has accelerated amid recent financial market volatility while at the same time foreign investment is set to nearly halve from $1,074 billion in 2014 to just $548 billion this year.

( ... ... )

The last time such a large amount of hot money spewed out of emerging market economies was at the height of the 2008/09 global financial crisis. This time around, the capital exodus is being driven by internal, rather than external factors, claims the IIF — a rather bizarre claim given that the three most important causes of emerging market woes (China’s rapid slowdown, the abrupt end of the commodities super-cycle, and the strengthening U.S. dollar) are: a) international in scope; and b) beyond the control of emerging market governments or central banks.

( ... ... )

[기사 발췌] 美기업 감원 금융위기 후 최대…韓 월급쟁이들 연말 두렵다 (2015.10)

출처: 프레시안/연합뉴스 (2015년 10월 6일)

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

美기업 감원 금융위기 후 최대…韓 월급쟁이들 연말 두렵다
─"경기 팽창기 종료 직전 현상" 의견도

( ... ... ) 6일 국제금융계에 따르면 미국 기업들의 지난 3분기 감원 발표가 지난 2009년 이후 최대를 기록한 데 이어 이달에도 감원 소식이 줄줄이 이어지고 있다. ( ... ... )

민간 조사업체인 챌린저, 그레이 앤 크리스마스(CG&C)에 따르면 9월 미국 기업들이 발표한 감원 계획 규모가 HP 3만명을 포함해 모두 5만8천877명으로 전달(4만1천명) 보다 43% 급증했다. 3분기 전체로는 20만5천759명으로 분기 기준으로 6년 만에 최대였다. 올들어 3분기까지는 49만여명으로 작년 동기대비 36% 증가했고 작년 연간보다도 2% 많다.

유가 급락에 따른 실적 악화에 시달리는 에너지 관련 기업들의 감원이 많았다. CG&C에 따르면 에너지 업계는 올해 들어 7만2천여명이 감원했다. ( ... ... ) 뱅크오브아메리카(BoA)가 수백명 감원키로 하는 등 금융업종도 예외가 아니다.

CG&C CEO 존 챌린저는 "경기 팽창기가 끝나기 전에 지금과 같은 대규모 해고가 나타나기 시작한다"고 말했다.  ( ... ... )

[외신 발췌] 도이치방크, 기업 도산의 주기가 시작된 것인지 묻다 (2015.10)

출처: Bloomberg Business (Oct 5, 2015)

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

* * *

Deutsche Bank Asks if the Corporate Default Cycle Has Started
─And answers not quite but we're getting close

With the corporate bond market falling out of bed in recent weeks, it's only natural that some analysts are questioning whether the selloff means we are entering the latter stages of the corporate credit cycle, i.e. a pickup in company defaults. The current credit cycle has arguably been extended thanks to years of low interest rates and easy money from the Federal Reserve, allowing companies to sell boatloads of bonds.

( ... ... )

[기사 발췌] 오피스텔 초고층 바람…하반기 줄줄이 분양 (2015.10)

출처: 아시아경제 (주상돈 기자, 2015년 10월 6일)

최근 오피스텔 분양시장에 25층을 훌쩍 넘는 고층 설계가 늘어나고 있다. 하남 미사강변과 위례, 용인 기흥역세권 등에서 분양됐거나 분양을 앞두고 있다.

( ... ... )

  • 서울 양천구 목동: 고층 오피스텔들... 목동파라곤(최고 35층)과 현대하이페리온(최고 59층), 현대하이페리온2차(최고 31층) 순으로 매매가는 3.3㎡당 1587~1864만원 선이다. 목동 오피스텔 평균 매매가(1115만원)를 크게 웃도는 수준이다.
  • {고층 프리미엄이 나타난다.} 용산 한강로1가 용산파크자이(33층)는 지난 5월 11층(전용면적 39㎡)이 2억7200만원에 거래된 반면 33층은 3억900만원에 거래됐다. 
  • 이달 미사강변도시에 최고층 오피스텔이 분양될 예정이다. 효성은 미사강변도시 중심업무지구 2블록에서 '미사역 효성해링턴 타워 더 퍼스트'를 분양한다. 미사강변도시 최고층인 지하 6층~지상 29층으로 지어진다. ( ... ... )
  • 아이에스동서도 같은 달 인천 송도국제도시 M1블록에 주거복합단지 '청라 센트럴 에일린의 뜰'을 분양한다. 지하 2층~지상 37층 10개동으로 구성된다. 그중 오피스텔은 총 4개동 최고 27층으로 지어지며 전용면적 45~55㎡ 866실 규모다. 공항철도 청라국제도시역을 통해 서울역까지 30분대 진입이 가능하다.
  • 신영이 위례신도시 업무시설용지 26블록에서 공급하는 '위례 지웰 푸르지오' 오피스텔은 최고 33층 규모로 .. 전용면적 68~84㎡로 구성되며 총 784실이 공급된다. ( ... ... )
  • 대우건설이 경기 용인 기흥역세권 3-3블록에서 분양중인 '기흥역 파크 푸르지오'는 최고 지하2층~지상 40층으로 지어진다. 전용면적 59~84㎡ 1개동, 총 226실 규모다. ( ... ... )
  • 롯데건설이 서울 금천구 독산동에 공급하는 4400가구 마지막 물량인 '롯데캐슬 골드파크타워 960' 오피스텔은 최고 39층으로 지어진다. 전용면적 21~33㎡ 960실 규모다.

( .... .... )

2015년 10월 5일 월요일

[자료: 한국은행] 금융안정보고서 (2015년 6월)

자료 1: 2015년 6월 금융안정보고서를 국회에 제출했다고 알리는 보도자료
자료 2: 보고서 원문(PDF)


[기사 발췌] 한국경제 시한폭탄 '좀비기업' 급증... "구조조정 시급하다"

출처: 연합뉴스 (자료: 네이버 뉴스)
일자: 2015년 10월 4일

※ 발췌:

영업익으로 이자도 못 갚는 비금융 상장사 비중 2010년 24.7%→올 1분기 34.9% 
조선·운수 등 대부분 업종서 증가…금리인상 시작되면 도산기업 속출 우려 
"추가 부실 차단하고, 회생가능성 없는 곳 서둘러 구조조정 해야"

10월 4일 LG경제연구원이 최근 628개 비금융 상장기업을 대상으로 부채상환 능력을 분석한 결과에 따르면 이자보상배율(영업이익/이자비용)이 1을 밑도는─즉, 영업이익이 이자비용에 못 미치는─좀비 기업은 2010년 24.7%에서 올해 2015년 1분기 34.9%로 크게 늘어난 것으로 나타났다.

지난 2015년 6월 한국은행이 발표한 금융안정보고서에서도 이자보상배율이 2년 연속으로 1 미만에 머문 기업이 빠른 속도로 늘어나는 것으 확인할 수 있다. 한국은행은 이런 기업을 '한계 기업'으로 정의해 분석했다.
  • 외부 감사를 받는 기업 가운데 한계 기업은 2009년 2,698개(12.8%)에서 지난해 말 3,295개(15.2%)로 증가했다. 
  • 2005년부터 2013년까지 이런 경험을 한 만성적 한계 기업의 비중은 2014년 말 현재 73.9%(2,435개)에 이른다.[??]

    한국은행의 해당 보고서에서 "과거(2005~13년 중) 한계기업 경험이 있는 만성적 한계기업은 2014년 말 현재 2,435개로 전체 한계기업의 상당 부분(73.9%)을 차지하고 있다."라고 적었으니, 한계기업 가운데 만성적인 곳이 73.9%로 아주 높다는 이야기다.
  • 특히 대기업 중에서 한계 기업 비중이 2009년 9.3%에서 지난해 14.8%로 빠르게 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 같은 시기 중소기업의 한계 기업 비중(15.3%)에 근접한 수치다. 
조선: 2009년 6.1% → 2014년 18.2%
운수: 13.3% → 22.2%
건설: 11.9% → 13.9%
철강: 5.9% → 12.8%
섬유: 9.8% → 13.4%

등 대부분의 업종에서 한계 기업 비중이 증가하는 추세다. ( ... ... )

2015년 10월 1일 목요일

[자료: R. Kane's] Measures and Motivations: U.S. National Income and Product Estimates During the Great Depression and World War II (2012)

This paper explains the early U.S. Department of Commerce estimates of national income and product during the 1930s and 1940s, focusing on how both economic theory and the needs of policymakers influenced the methods and concepts used. The paper explores the debate between Simon Kuznets, author of Commerce’s first estimates of national income during the Great Depression, and Milton Gilbert, author of Commerce’s first estimates of gross national product (GNP) during World War II, over the meaning and measurement of the nation’s final product.

※ 발췌 (excerpt): Introduction

( ... ... ) The history of measuring national income and product parallels the history of macroeconomic theory, as well as the history of U.S. economic policy, during most of the twentieth century. As measures of final product for the nation’s economy, national income and gross national product (GNP) each served as an essential tool for policymakers and as a window through which economists could view the workings of a complex macro economy. Monumental events, such as the Great Depression and World War II (WWII), which required immense economic data for policy and planning, shaped much of the early work on the creation of national income and product estimates in the U.S.

( ... ... ) The transition at the Department of Commerce, from its first estimates of national income in 1934 to its first estimates of gross national product (GNP) during the period 1942-1947, embodied a shift in both the underlying macroeconomic theory and the policy applications. ( ... ... )