2019년 12월 13일 금요일

Excerpts from:// thoughts on Annus Mirabilis by Philip Larkin

출처 1: Mural, some space in the University of Valencia (http://mural.uv.es/): http://mural.uv.es/margapa/philip.htm


Sexual intercourse began
In nineteen sixty-three
(which was rather late for me) -
Between the end of the ^Chatterley^ ban
And the Beatles' first LP.

Up to then there'd only been
A sort of bargaining,
A wrangle for the ring,
A shame that started at sixteen
And spread to everything.

Then all at once the quarrel sank:
Everyone felt the same,
And every life became
A brilliant breaking of the bank,
A quite unlosable game.

So life was never better than
In nineteen sixty-three
(Though just too late for me)-
Between the end of the Chatterley ban
And the Beatles' first LP.

* * *


When I see a couple of kids
And guess he's fucking her and she's
Taking pills or wearing a diaphragm,
I know this is paradise

Everyone old has dreamed of all their lives -
Bonds and gestures pushed to one side
Like an outdated combine harvester,
And everyone young going down the long slide

To happiness, endlessly. I wonder if
Anyone looked at me, forty years back,
And thought, ^That'll be the life;
No God any more, or sweating in the dark^

^About hell and that, or having to hide
What you think of the priest. He
And his lot will all go down the long slide
Like free bloody birds.^ And immediately
Rather than words comes the thought of high windows:
The sun-comprehending glass,
And beyond it, the deep blue air, that shows
Nothing, and is nowhere, and is endless.

* * *

another excerpt from the same source above:

( ... ... ) Sexual Revolution in Larkin' time there were profound changes in matters referring to sex and the contraceptive methods. The sexual revolution refers to a significant hange in sexual behaviour and sexual morality throughout the West (particularly in the US and the UK) in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

The sexual revolution was liberalization after a conservative period. Sex was openly discussed in books and music. Sexual practices that were previously considered unsuitable for discussion, such as oral sex, orgasm and homosexuality, were openly talked about. New methods of contraception allowed men and women to be able to control their own reproduction. ( ... ... )

This sense of a new age of sexual freedom is ironically captured by Philip Larkin, in his poem, "Annus Mirabilis" (1967).

  • In line 3, "(which was rather late for me)", the poet is regretting because it was too late for him. Before the sexual revolution came, young men and women always had to think twice before getting intimate because there was a high possibility to produce 'unwanted' or 'unplanned' children. However, with the invention of the pill, most of the young lovers of the 1960s and 1970s did not even have to think twice before making love to each other. 
  • In the first stanza of the poem, the author seems to show us that he would like to enjoy such sexual 'advantage'. He gives us an impression in favour of the pill, and although he does not mention it, nevertheless, we have to keep in mind that Larkin is using an ironic tone.
  • ( ... ... ) Annus Mirabilis is a Latin expression, so if we translate this ( ... ) the meaning could be more or less 'Impressive Year' or "Admirable Year' (literal translation). Therefore 1963 ( ... ) could be described as Annus Mirabilis because the availability of the pill and the sexual revolution supposed a new culture of 'free love'.

( ... ) Larkin also explores a different kind of change over the time: the change of society's values. Annus Mirabilis is 1963, where "sexual intercourse began" (line 1) , "Between the end of the Chatterley ban / And the Beatles' first LP" (lines 4-5).  These two last facts were very important, as was especially the appearance of Beatles' first LP, now that we have to keep in mind the tremendous importance and influence that this band had for the youths of the 1960s and 1970s.

The general feeling in the 1960s was one of emancipation, liberation, and freedom. The social shift, the revolution, is described in this poem as "up until then there'd only been ... / a shame that started at sixteen'" (line 6-9). "then all at once, the quarrel sank: / everyone felt the same" (line 11-12). ( ... ... )

At the time "Annus Mirabilis", was written, [i.e., 1967,] it was an era ironically illustrated like "a brilliant breaking of the bank" (line 14). Human relationships had changed and before the sexual revolution happened, love was only included inside the boundaries of marriage, and sometimes, marriage was not more than a sort of blackmail, as he says in the poem "wrangle for a ring" (line 8). But this poem should not confuse us because Larkin rejected modernism, as he declared in an essay reprinted in "Required Writing", and in several poems such as "Going Going" and "The Building" (both written in 1972), and above all, we have to keep in mind the ironic tone Larkin is using. ( ... ... )

출처 2: Thanks to Bethany Stuart, https://bethanyasliterature.blogspot.com/2011/03/philip-larkin-annus-mirabilis.html

( ... ... ) The second stanza speaks of of life previously "a wrangle for a ring" portraying the social rule of on sex before marriage and presents how sex before marriage should be cast in "A shame that started at 16". As previously detailed this stanza too has an implicit reading with "A sort of bargaining" even going as far as to suggest the buying and selling of prostitution.

There appears to be a form of excitement involved with this "bargaining" and "wrangle". One could also be as crude to note how the first world in the stanza is "up" etc, etc.

출처 3: https://emmatotmanwiderreading.blogspot.com/2013/04/philip-larkin.html

"Annus Mirabilis" translated from Latin to "years of wonder" is a poem of sexual awakening. It marks the transformation of Larkin and of the country into an era of sexual liberation. ( ... ) Larkin talks about it being "rather late for me", "A wrangle for the ring" and "the quarrel" which endows virginity as a right of passage --something that's desired as a right to coming of age and can almost be viewed as a competition in comparison to peers as in a boxing ring [,] "A wrangle for the ring". This could also have connotations of marriage (a wedding ring), or more explicitly, be a metaphor for a woman's body part. The bargaining depicts sex as material goods to be bought and sold--the superficiality of sex and men's view on women.

출처 4: https://betterlivingthroughbeowulf.com/sexual-intercourse-began-in-1963/

( ... ... )  When he says that "life was never better than / In nineteen sixty three," does he really believe this or (what is more likely) is he just talking about how it felt to glimpse a world where sex could be guilt free? A "year of miracles" where there would no longer be "a wrangle for the ring, / A shame that started at sixteen / And spread to everything"?

출처 5: https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/oxford-university-press/sexual-nostalgia-cRo9lTq67s

Sexual intercourse began in 1963, famously too late for Philip Larkin. HIs timing was precise, 'Between the end of Chatterley ban / And the Beatles' first LP ...',

Up until then there'd only been
A sort of bargaining,
A wrangle for a ring,
A shame that started at sixteen
And spread to everything.

Larkin's 'wrangle' and 'shame' cling tenaciously in popular memory. Present historiography likewise reads sexual experience before the pill through the lens of 1960s liberation and modernization, finding it narrow, inhibited and wanting. ( ... ... )

출처 6: https://books.google.co.kr/books?id=2x0ey2DBcX4C&pg=PA258&lpg=PA258&dq=Philip+Larkin+wrangle&source=bl&ots=rpQixQzdaw&sig=ACfU3U2Xi8r68jY4cYVa_KXjvaTcxwEi8A&hl=ko&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiVu-Xf4bHmAhVKGaYKHV0fCPkQ6AEwCHoECAkQBA#v=onepage&q=Philip%20Larkin%20wrangle&f=false

( ... ... )

Sexual intercourse began
In nineteen sixty-three
(Which was rather late for me) --
Between the end of the Chatterley ban
And the Beatles' fist LP.

( ... ... ) The poet here means that pre-marital sexual relations became acceptable to all as a part of a new libertarian and consumerist ethic, which is here defined in relation to a best-selling paperback (^Lady Chatterley's Lover^) and a best-selling Long Playing gramophone record of the Beatles who epitomised popular culture in England in the 1960s and 1970s. This is clarified in the next stanza:

Up till then there'd only been
A sort of bargaining,
A wrangle for a ring
A shame that started at sixteen
And spread to everything.

Thus, the firs two stanzas compare and contrast sexual freedom of the present with sexual repression of the past, when marriage ("A wrangle for a ring") was essential for access to sexual experience, and sex outside marriage often led to life-long remorse and still graver consequences.  The third stanza seems to celebrate the time's eager, timely response to the new sexual mores which the poet describes in terms of breaking open the bank of life for all good things that had so long remained confined and prohibited.  ( ... ... )

( ... ... ) During the period between the end of the Chatterley ban and the Beatles' first LP, Victorian morality finally and absolutely died; pornography was legitimized; and sex arrived at the public cinema. The Beatles' first LP began playing to a new breed, miniskirted, barefooted, long-haired and bearded; and who revolt on college campuses, dodge the draft, wear Afro hair styles, smoke grass, rock-and-roll under psychodelic lights, 'blow their minds', 'do their thing,' and would consider the very term 'free-love' a laughable archaism. ( ... ... )

출처 7: Baishakhi Banerjee and P. K. Senapoti, "An Analytical study of some of the poems of Philip Larkin based on his theme of death," ...

( ... ... ) He expresses marriage as a wrangle for a ring. In the past old days, marriage was essential for access of sexual relationship and sex outside marriage was a matter for remorse for lifelong. In those days sex was restricted and the people used to maintain the social ethics. But ultimately the rigidity takes the form of frequent sex making.

출처 8: https://chipputrieslit.wordpress.com/2014/06/14/annus-mirabilis/

( ... ... ) The second stanza speaks of sex as previously "a wrangle for a ring", with "wrangle" suggestive of reluctance and conflict, hinting at the tediousness of having to fulfil the absolute condition of marriage (as represented by the "ring") before sex. In Larkin's younger days, sex before marriage was taboo and seen as "A shame that started at 16 / spread to everything," suggesting that it was almost disease-like in nature and unthinkable. The "sort of bargaining" can suggest prostitution or an idea of a boy negotiating with a girl in order to enjoy sex, and this process is suggestive of tediousness and effort, which directly contrast with the current sexual freedom where "everyone felt the same" and "bargaining" was no longer necessary.

2019년 11월 28일 목요일

excerpts:// corporate governance and banks' roles in it, in Germany



­­­An even more widely noted and, at the same time, widely criticized, phenomenon of the German system of corporate governance is the role of the banks in the system.[주]36

German banks, in particular the 4 or 5 biggest, own sometimes quite large equity statkes in numerous public companies, they control the proxy machinery of most public companies where there are not otherwise controlling shareholders, and they are represented on the boards of most large German public companies.[주]37


다른 자료: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ces_wp180.pdf

( .. .. ) two main features distinguish the German system of corporate governance from systems of the Anglo-American type. The first is that it has several institutiona features which mean that banks are potentially capable of playing a major role in corporate governance. Banks hold equity stakes in large firms, and they also control equity voting rights because they exercise proxy votes on behalf of shareholders who have deposited their shares with the banks. In  Germany a public limited company, Aktiengesellschaft (AG), has to have a supervisory board, the main function of which is to monitor the board of senior managers who are responsible for the running of the company: banks are extensively represented on these supervisory boards. The provision of external finance to firms is dominated by banks, both as lenders and as arrangers and underwriters of new security issues. ...

다른 자료: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=247410

... ...

2019년 11월 5일 화요일

발췌:// some readings on The Righteous Mind by J. Haidt


1. Jonathan Haidt, https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/28/of-freedom-and-fairness/

Drawing on the work of many anthropologists (particularly Richard Shweder at the University of Chicago) and many evolutionary biologists and psychologists, my colleagues and I came to the conclusion that there are six best candidates for being the taste buds of the moral mind: Care/Harm, Fairness/Cheating, Liberty/Oppression, Loyalty/Betrayal, Authority/Subversion, and Sanctity/Degradation.

Moral foundations theory helped to explain the differing responses to those harmless taboo violations (the dog-eating and flag-shredding). Those stories always violated the Loyalty, Authority, or Sanctity foundations in ways that were harmless. My educated American subjects (who, in retrospect, I realize were mostly liberal) generally rejected those three foundations and had a moral “cuisine” built entirely on the first three foundations; so if an action doesn’t harm anyone (Care/Harm), cheat anyone (Fairness/Cheating), or violate anyone’s freedom (Liberty/Oppression), then you can’t condemn someone for doing it. But in more traditional societies, the moral domain is broader. Moral “cuisines” are typically based on all six foundations (though often with much less reliance on Liberty), and it is perfectly sensible to condemn people for homosexual behavior among consenting adults, or other behaviors that challenge traditions or question authority.


2. https://www.thegospelcoalition.org/blogs/trevin-wax/the-6-moral-foundations-of-politics/

(1) The Care/Harm Foundation

This foundation makes us sensitive to signs of suffering and need. In order to maximize care and minimize harm, we enact laws that protect the vulnerable. We punish people who are cruel and we care for those in suffering. The left relies primarily on this foundation (and the next one), while the right positions it within a broader matrix of concerns.

(2) The Fairness/Cheating Foundation

This foundation leads us to seek out people who will be good collaborators in whatever project we are pursuing. It also leads us to punish people who cheat the system. People on both the right and the left believe in fairness, but they apply this foundation in different ways. Haidt explains:

“On the left, fairness often implies equality, but on the right it means proportionality – people should be rewarded in proportion to what they contribute, even if that guarantees unequal outcomes” (161).

(3) The Loyalty/Betrayal Foundation

All of us, whether on the right or left, are “tribal” in some sense. We love the people on our team, and loyalty makes our team more powerful and less susceptible to our failure. Likewise, we have a corresponding hatred for traitors. Those who betray our “team” for the other side are worse than those who were already on the other side.

Though Haidt sees both left and right as being tribal, he recognizes “the left tends toward universalism and away from nationalism, so it often has trouble connecting to voters who rely on the Loyalty foundation” (164).

(4) The Authority/Subversion Foundation

Authority plays a role in our moral considerations because it protects order and fends off chaos. Haidt explains:

“Everyone has a stake in supporting the existing order and in holding people accountable for fulfilling the obligations of their station” (168).

Not surprisingly, the right values this foundation, while the left defines itself by opposing hierarchy, inequality, and power.

(5) The Sanctity/Degradation Foundation

No matter the era, humans have always considered certain things “untouchable” for being dirty and polluted. The flipside is that we want to protect whatever is hallowed and sacred, whether objects, ideals, or institutions.

People on the right talk about the sanctity of life and marriage. People on the left may mock “True Love Waits” and purity rings, but they frequent New Age grocery stores, buy products that cleanse them of “toxins,” and warn against human degradation of the environment.

(6) The Liberty/Oppression Foundation

This foundation builds on Authority/Subversion because we all recognize there is such a thing as legitimate authority, but we don’t want authoritarians crossing the line into tyranny. Both the left and the right hate oppression and desire liberty, but for different reasons.


3. https://blog.12min.com/the-righteous-mind-summary/

( ... ... ) [C]ontrary to popular belief, morality is probably not founded on reason. Analyzing the reactions of people whose brain damage had petered out their emotional capacity, Antonio Damasio discovered that we may not be "thinking machines which feel," but "feeling machines which think."

[R]easoning makes no difference whatsoever in everyday life, as well. Amost every decision you make, you make it in few seconds, using your intuition, or "gut feeling." You use your reason not to rethink this--but to back it up.

In fact, many studies have shown that rational arguments have little effect. And that's because cognitive dissonance and confirmation biases are almost unbeatable ( ... ... )

In Scientific circles, "The Righteous Mind" is most famous as the book which popularized the Moral Foundation Theory. It was originally proposed by Haidt himself and Jesse Graham.

The idea is simple: morality everywhere is similar because it's based on at least five foundations, which are inherently human. And, which must have developed similarly through the process of evolution. These five foundations are:

(1) care (developed in opposition to [harm])
(2) fairness (vs. cheating),
(3) loyalty (vs. betrayal),
(4) authority (vs. subversion)
(5) sanctity (vs. degradation).

And, for most of the world's societies, they have developed in a fairly similar manner. There's just one small part of the world--the weird part--where morality is more individualized, more liberal, and more fragmentized concept.

And that weird part of the world is us. Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic societies. Or, WEIRD, for short.

( ... ... ) Based on a large-scale study, Haidt and Graham have deduced at least five foundations: care, fairness, loyalty, authority, and sanctity. All of these developed in opposition to some individualistically more appealing traits when early humans started living in communities. That way, care developed in opposition to harm, fairness to cheating, loyalty to betrayal, authority to subversion, and sanctity to degradation.


4. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-psychology-of-partisanship/

“Western philosophy has been worshipping reason and distrusting the passions for thousands of years ... There’s a direct line running from Plato through Immanuel Kant to Lawrence Kohlberg. I’ll refer to this worshipful attitude throughout this book as the ^rationalist delusion^.

Intellectuals confuse a more ideal state of affairs for the way things actually are—reason is more often than not rationalization, a justification for ideas developed not in the brain but in the gut. Haidt’s antecedent here is David Hume. Reason plays servant to man’s whims. Man forces the facts to fit his beliefs rather than the reverse. ...

( ... ) The Righteous Mind explains that the rationalist delusion is [:]

the idea that reasoning is our most noble attribute, one that makes us like the gods (for Plato) or that brings us beyond the ‘delusion’ of believing in gods (for the New Atheists). The rationalist delusion is not just a claim about human nature. It’s also a claim that the rational caste (philosophers or scientists) should have more power, and it usually comes along with a utopian program for raising more rational children.

Intelligence is a virtue. So are prudence, integrity, humility, and courage. People who possess the first trait, but lack the latter ones, tend to downplay the importance of their weaknesses and inflate the importance of their strength. The limitations of intelligence are never as glaring as when highbrains advocate intelligence as the panacea for everything. ( ... ... )

Haidt helped devise a questionnaire that gauged moral views by eliciting test-taker responses to statements in five category:


( ... ... ) They’re WEIRD—as in Western, Educated, Industrial, Rich, and Democratic. Weirdoes are more like weirdoes in other countries than they are like their fellow countrymen. The author notes of his subjects in Philadelphia and two Brazilian cities that “the effect of social class was much larger than the effect of city. In other words, well-educated people in all three cities were more similar to each other than they were to their lower-class neighbors.”

( ... ... ) They mistake the value system of Western, educated, industrialized, rich, democratic peoples for the value systems of Third World, uneducated, agrarian, impoverished, oppressed peoples.


5. https://www.counter-currents.com/2019/02/jonathan-haidts-the-righteous-mind-part-one/


6. https://www.edge.org/conversation/jonathan_haidt-a-new-science-of-morality-part-1

2019년 10월 30일 수요일

Dic:// 'sans culottes' , references

1. https://alphahistory.com/frenchrevolution/sans-culottes/

2. https://www.thoughtco.com/who-were-the-sans-culottes-1221898

" So why ‘Sans-culottes?’ The name literally means ‘without culottes’, a culotte being a form of knee-high clothing that only the wealthier members of French society wore. By identifying themselves as ‘without culottes’ they were stressing their differences from the upper classes of French society. Together with the Bonnet Rouge and the triple colored cockade, the power of the Sans-culottes was such that this became a quasi-uniform of revolution. Wearing culottes could get you into trouble if you ran into the wrong people during the revolution; as a result, even upper-class French people sported the sans-culottes clothing to avoid potential confrontations. "

3. https://www.britannica.com/topic/sansculotte

4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sans-culottes

2019년 10월 18일 금요일

용어: 'streamed' and 'unstreamed' classes, or 'setting'

※ 발췌 (excerpts):

1. 출처: "Setting and streaming explained," https://www.theschoolrun.com/setting-and-streaming-explained

Teaching children by ability happens in many primary schools in the UK, but how do setting and streaming work in practice?

As parents, we all have a natural tendency to compare our children with others and secretly hope that ours are outperforming their peers. ^Finding out which 'set' or 'stream' they're in at school either reassure us that they're doing well, or leave us worrying that they're falling behind the rest of the class^. ( ... ... )

Setting and streaming explained

The term 'set' and 'stream' are often used interchangeably, but they are in fact two separate ways of grouping childrean according to their academic ability.

Streaming is where childrean are placed in groups according to their general academic ability; a child who is considered to be a high achiever across the broad may be put into the top stream.

Setting is where children are grouped by ability according to subject.  So a child who is achieving highly in math but is average at reading and spelling might be in the top set for maths, and the middle set for English.

Streaming and setting are more common in secondary schools than primary schools. 'Contray to popular belief, all secondary schools adopt some form of ability grouping, although the extent of it for each year group may vary,' explains Sue Hallam, professor of education and music psychology at UCL Institute of Education. 'At secondary school, children are frequently banded into broad attainment groups, and then setted within those bands for particular subjects.'

In Year 7, children may be put into sets or streams based on their Year 6 SATs, or on the results of CATs or other tests administered near the start of the year. A handful of secondary schools are 'bilateral', where the majority of children are given places non-selectively, but a percentage are admitted based on 11+ results, and are taught as a separate 'grammar stream'.

Although streaming at settng is less common in primary schools, some schools do group pupils according to ability. 'It was common when selections at 11 occurred, when the top stream would be entered for 11+ and the other streams would not,' Sur explains. ( ... ... )

출처 2: "Streaming in Schools: The Benefits of Grouping Students by Abiligy," https://wehavekids.com/education/STREAMINGThe-benefits-of-streaming-in-secondary-schools

Streaming refers to the grouping of students by ability. Stuents within a certain ability range are grouped together as a class. The objective is to allow like students to move ahead at a pace that matches their abilities.

Within a streamed class setting the teacher is able to set a suitable pace for the class and maintaining that pace. ( ... ... )

2019년 6월 18일 화요일

Dic:// mark for life

Mark someone for life:

─. To greatly affect, alter, or impair one's memory or psyche for the rest of one's life. Often used in passive constructions.

─. Fig. to affect someone for like.

  • Seeing her parents die in such a terrible manner marked the poor girl for life.
  • I hope such a traumatic event like that won't mark him for life!
  • The tragedy marked her for life and she was never the same.
  • She was marked for life by her brother's untimely death.

2019년 6월 2일 일요일

발췌: complete markets (Arrow-Debreu markets), state-contingent claims, Arrow-Debreu security

─. 출처 1: Complete market (위키피디아: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complete_market)

In economics, a complete market (aka Arrow-Debreu market or complete system of markets) is a market with two conditions:

  1. Negligible transaction consts and therefore perfect information,
  2. There is a price for every asset in every possible state of the world [주]2

In such a market, the complete set of possible bets on future states-of-the-world can be constructed with existing assets without friction. Here goods are state-contingent; that is, a good includes the time and state of the world in which it is consumed. So for instance, an umbrella tomorrow if it rains is a distinct good from an umbrella tomorrow if it is clear.

The study of complete markets is central to state-preference theory. The theory can be traced to the work of Kenneth Arrow (1964), Gérard Debreu (1959), Arrow and Debreu (1954) and Lionel McKenzie (1954). Arrow and Debreu were awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics... largely for their work in developing the theory of complete markets and applying it to the problem of general equilibrium.

A state of the world is a complete specification of the values of all relevant variables over the relevant time horizon.
  • A state-contingent claim, or state claim, is a contract whose future payoffs depend on future states of the world. For example, suppose you can bet on the outcome of a coin toss. If you guess the outcome correctly, you will win one dollar, and otherwise you will lose one dollar. A bet on heads is a state claim, with payoff of one dollar if heads is the outcome, and payoff of negative one dollar if tails is the outcome.
  • "Heads" and "tails" are the states of the world in this example. A state-contingent claim can be represented as a payoff vector with one element for each state of the world, e.g. (payoff if heads, payoff if tails). So a bet on head can be represented as ($1, -$1) and a bet on tails can be represented as (-$1, $1). Notice that by placing one bet on heads and one bet on tails, you a state-contingent claim of ($0, $0); that is, the payoff is the same regardless of which state of the world occurs.

The bet on a coin toss is a simplistic example but illustrates widely applicable concepts, especially in finance.
  • If markets are complete, it is possible to arrange a portfolio with any conceivable payoff vector. That is, the state claims available for purchase, represented as payoff vectors, span the payoff space.
  • A pure security or simple contingent claim is a state claim that pays off in only one state.
  • Any state-contingent claim can be regarded as a collection of pure securities.
  • A system of market is complete if and only if the number of attainable pure securities equals the number of possible states.

    Formally, a market is complete with respect to a trading strategy, ^s^, if there exisits a self-financing trading strategy, ^s0^, such that at any time ^t^, the returns of the two strategies, ^s^ and ^s0^ are equal.

    This is equivalent to stating that for a complete market, all cash flows for a trading strategy can be replicated using a similar synthetic trading strategy.
  • Because a trading strategy can be simplified into a set of simple contingent claims (strategies paying 1 in one state and 0 in every other state), a complete market can be generalize das the ability to replicate cash flows of all simple contingent claims...

─. 출처 2: https://wikidocs.net/20133

먼저 1-period 이항 모델(binomial model)을 살펴보고 2-period와 n-period 이항 모델을 생각해 본다. 그리고 n이 무한대로 커질때 그 극한이 블랙숄즈 모델로 수렴하는 것을 확인할 것이다. 이항 모델은 state-contingent claim, 위험중립확률, 델타헤징, 셀프 파이낸싱 같은 파이낸스의 핵심적인 개념들을 이해하는 데에 큰 도움이 되기 때문에 중요하다...

이 논의를 조금 더 일반화해서 Arrow-Debreu security에 대해 살펴보자...

이러한 단위 페이오프를 만드는 state-contingent claim 증권을 최초[로] 찾아낸 사람의 이름을 따라 Arrow-Debreu security 또는 Arrow security라고 부른다. 모든 옵션의 페이오프는 Arrow security를 적절히 결합하면 얻을 수 있기 때문에 아주 편리한 개념이다.

─. 출처 3: IM&F 시리즈 15, 금융공학 V. Introduction to Financial Engineering with R (최병선 지음, )


금융공학의 공학(engineering)이라는 단어에서 연상되듯이, 금융공학의 주된 목적 중 하나는 시장에서 거래되는 금융상품들을 조립해서 새로운 금융상품을 만드는 것이다. 이러한 조립 과정을 살펴보기 위해서 먼저 Arrow-Debreu 증권이라고도 불리는 상태 증권(state security)을 생각해보자.

상태 증권은 미래 어떤 시점에서 정해진 상태(state)가 발생했을 때, 그리고 그 상태가 발생했을 때에 한해서 1원을 지불하는 증권이다...

경제학에서와 달리 금융공학에서 금융상품의 합리적 가치를 결정하는 데는 수요공급이론을 사용하지 않는다. 대신에, 시장에 재정기회가 존재하지 않는다는 무재정 조건(no arbitrage condition)을 사용한다. 무재정 조건을 '비즈니스 세계에서 공짜 점심은 없다'라는 말로 표현하기도 한다. 앞서 언급했듯이, 재정기회가 존재하지 않는다는 것은 동일한 수익률과 동일한 위험을 지닌 금융상품들의 가격은 동일한다는 것이다. 좀 더 좁은 의미에서 말하면, 재정기회가 존재하지 않는다는 것은 위험을 감수할 각오를 하지 않으면서 확실한 이득을 얻을 수 있는 기회가 없다는 것이다...

금융자산 가치평가에서는 언뜻 보기에 추상적이지만 지극히 현상적인 개념이 하나 필요하다. 이것은 시장 상태(state of the world), 경제 상태(economic state) 또는 간단히 상태(state)라 부를 것으로, 금융자산 가치평가에서 매우 중요한 역할을 한다. 이 장에서는 금융시장에 상태들이 S개 존재한다고 가정하고, 가능한 상태들 w(1), w(2), ..., w3(S) 나타내는 상태 벡터를 다음과 같이 정의하자...

여기서 S는 유한임을 기억하라. 이 상태들 w(1), w(2), ..., w3(S)는 상호배타적이며, 또한 각 시점에서 이들 중 하나가 반드시 발생한다. 따라서 상태는 확률 공간에서 정의되는 기초 사건(elementary event)에 해당한다...

미래 시점의 각 상태에 따라 각 금융자산의 미래시점가치(payoff)가 다르다...

<따름정리 4.2.3>의 S개 포트폴리오들 ...을 순수 증권들(pure securities) 또는 상태 증권들(state securities)이라 부른다. 또한 노벨경제학상을 받은 Kenneth Arrow와 Gérard Debreu의 이름을 따서 Arrow-Debreu 증권들이라 부르기도 한다. 완비시장에서는 어떤 증권이든 이 S개 상태 즈권들의 일의적 포트폴리오로 나타낼 수 있다. 따라서 완비시장 모형에서 본질적인 증권은 이 S개 상태 증권들이다...

금융파생상품(financial derivative) 또는 조건부 청구권(contingent claim)이란 그 가치가 기본자산 또는 원자산(underlying)이라 불리는 특정 금융자산이나 금융자산의 지불금액 함수로 정의되는 계약이다.

─. 출처 4: Matthew Brigida, PhD. Associate Professor of Finance, Clarion University of Pennsylvania, "What is a Complete Market?" 2008.


First, define a contingent claim as a financial contract with a random payoff that is free to take both positive or negative values. The random payoff is 'determined by (i.e., contingent on)' the state of the world that occurs in the future. An option is an example of a contingent claim.

Next, in order to price this contingent claim we may replicate the payoff of the contingent claim in all future states of the world using a portfolio of securities available in the market.[주]*  In the case of replicating an option we may use the risk free security and the underlying stock. Note, if the replicating portfolio and the contingent claim have the same payoff in all future states of the world, the replicating portfolio must have the same price as the contingent claim. Finally, we define a complete market as a market wherein any contingent claim can be replicated with a portfolio of existing securities.

... In order to derive their option pricing model, Black and Scholes created a riskless portfoloio consisting of the option and the underlying stock. The change in the stock price is offset perfectly by the change in the option price (through delta hedging). Because we assume there is no arbitrage in the market, this riskless portfolio must earn the risk free rate. Setting the option and stock portfolio equal to the risk free rate allows us to solve for the option price. Note, the stock and option portfolio only riskless for a short period of time and therefore must be adjusted continuously. In fact, consider the Black-Scholes world where there exists alone in a market two primitive securities, one security whose price process is a geometric Brownian motion and  a risk free security. This market is complete.

To give you a general idea of what may be required for a market to be complete, we can prove that in a single period market (there is only t=0 and t=1) with K states of the world when t=1, we need at least K securites for the market to be complete.

2019년 3월 1일 금요일

메모:// The Name of the Game: Predictive Power of Reputations versus Situational Labels in Determining Prisoner's Dilemma Game Moves

─ 자료 1: 

지은이: Varda Liberman, Steven M. Samuels, Lee Ross
출처: "The Name of the Game: Predictive Power of Reputations versus Situational Labels in Determining Prisoner's Dilemma Game Moves," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, vol. 30, no. 9, pp. 1175-1185.
URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0146167204264004 (유료 정보)


ABSTRACT: Two experiments, one conducted with American college students and one with Isaeli pilots and their instructors, explored the predictive power of reputation-based assessments versus stated "name of the game" (Wall Street Game vs. Community Game) in determining players' responses in an N-move Prisoner's Dilemma. The results of these studies showed that the relevant labeling manipulations exerted far greater impact on the players' choice to cooperate versus defectㅡboth in the first round and overallㅡthan anticipated by the individuals who had predicted their behavior. Reputation-based prediction, by contrast, failed to discriminate cooperators from defectors. A supplementary questionnarie study showed the generality of the relevant short-coming in naive psychology. The implications of these findings, and the potential contribution of the present methodology to the classic pedagogical strategy of the demonstration experiment, are discussed.

Keywords: Prisoner's Dilemma, lay psychology, name of the game, construal, demonstration experiments


─ 자료 2: Matthew O'brien, "These 2 Words Will Make You More Selfish," The Atlantic, October 29, 2013
URL: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/10/these-2-words-will-make-you-more-selfish/280943/


( ... ) If you've ever watched ^Law and Order^, you're well-acquainted with the Prisoner's Dilemma. Many episode end with the detective questioning two suspected partners-in-crime in two separate rooms. The cops tell each that the other is about to give them up, and that the first one to talk gets a deal. The other gets a full prison sentence.

This is the dilemma. Each suspect would (1) get off if they both cooperate, (2) get some time if he betrays without getting betrayed, or (3) get more time if he gets betrayed or they both betray.

Well, it depends on what you call it. At least that's what a 2004 paper by Varda Liberman, Steven Samuels, and Lee Ross found when they tested Stanford undergraduates. These researchers set up a simple Prisoner's Dilemma with money prizes, but added a wrinkle. They told half the students it was called "Community Game" and the other half that it was called "Wall Street Game." And that was all it took to turn these undergrads from team players into Gordon Gekkos. Fully 67 percent of the students cooperated when they were told they were playing "Community Game," but only 33 percent cooperated when they were told they were playing "Wall Street Game."

In other words, just hearing the words "Wall Street" made students twice as selfish.

But it was a weird kind of selfishness. The students knew they'd get less money if they betrayed their partner. The researchers made sure they understood that. But some students didn't seem to care about maximizing absolute returns. They cared about maximizing relative returns. Sure, they could get more money overall if they didn't betrayed their partner, but they could get more money that their partner if they betrayed them. The question is whether hearing the words "Wall Street Game" or not hearing the words "Community Game" mattered more here. It's hard to say for sure, but it's probably the former. Paper after paper has found that taking economics, or even just thinking about it, tends to make people more selfish and less caring.  It turns out teaching people that everyone is a rational self-maximizer primes them to act that way.

There's a limit, of course, to priming. It's not like we could make the financial system safer just by renaming Wall Street. ... But priming does still matter, because how we think of ourselves matters. It changes how we act. Banker who think of themselves as kind-of-vanilla lenders, and not as traders, will do their jobs differently. ....

In other words, cultrue matters.

2019년 2월 15일 금요일

졸속 메모:// 장기 이식에 활용되는 양자 교환, 삼자 교환 알고리즘의 기본 패턴

시장 설계(market design), 짝짓기 알고리즘(matching algorithm),

출처: 존스홉킨스 대학병원 장기이식 센터 ...


Since 2001, Johns Hopkins Comprehensive Transplant Center has participated in paried kidney exchanges. A paired kidney exchanges, also known as a "kidney swap" occurs when a living kidney donor is incompatible with the recipient, and so exchanges kidney with another donor/recipiet pair.

Two live donor transplants would occur. Suppose there were two donor/recipient pairs, Donor and Recipient 1 and Donor and Recipient 2:

- Donor 1 would give a kidney to Recipient 2.
- Donor 2 would give a kidney to Recipient 1.

... ...

In more complex cases, additional donor/recipient pairs may be used. Here is a diagram showing a three-way kidney exchange.

2019년 1월 21일 월요일

자료:// 학교 배정(school assignment) 알고리즘 관련

출처: Tayfun Sönmez, "Challenges to Design a New System of School Admissions: Lessons from Recent School Choice:  Reforms at Boston, Chicago, & England," 2015.

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

All slots are open (0% walk-zone priority)

50-50 slot split (50% walk-zone priority - 50% open priority), walk-half first - Open-half next, Same tie-breaker for both halves