출처: Bloomberg Business (Oct 5, 2015)
※ 발췌 (excerpt):
Barclays: Profit Margins Could Be Pointing Towards a Recession
─Will the recent fall in margins be the exception to the rule?
( ... ) The team, led by Jonathan Glionna, points out that profit margins in S&P 500 companies have declined by 60 basis points over the past 12 months. That's something which doesn't usually happen unless the economy is heading into a recession.
"We analyze the link between profit margins and recessions for the last seven business cycles, dating back to 1973. The results are not encouraging for the economy or the market ... Since 1973 there are six other examples. In five out of six, the decline in profit margins coincided with a recession."
However, the firm is quick to point out that it does not expect the U.S. economy to start heading drastically lower, but it does recommend exercising some caution in the face of much higher market uncertainty.
"The one time it did not [presage recession] was in 1985. But, 1985 resembles 2015 because the decline in profit margins is primarily the result of lower oil prices. Our economists do not expect the U.S. to enter a recession in the near term ... Still, uncertainty in the economy and in the market has increased and this is often a good time to overweight the stocks of companies with high profit margins."
( ... ... )