[발췌] Great Moderation

지은이: Craig S. Hakkio, FRB of Kansas City
출처: http://www.federalreservehistory.org/Events/DetailView/65

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

The Great Moderation from the mid-1980s to 2007 was a welcome period of relative calm after the volatility of the Great Inflation. ( ... ... ) inflation was low and relatively stable, while the period contained the longest economic expansion since World War II. Looking back, economists may differ on what roles were played by the different factors in contributing to the Great Moderation, but one thing is sure: Better monetary policy was key. Unfortunately, the financial crisis of 2007-08 and the ensuing Great Recession broke the calm of the Great Moderation. ( ... ... )

The significant decline in macroeconomic volatility that began in the mid-1980s and came to be known as the Great Moderation has been documented by many, including Stock and Watson (2003), Bernanke (2004), and Clark (2009). It was not simply a US phenomenon; it occurred around the same time in many other advanced economies.

     Chart 1 and Chart 2 visually illustrate the Great Moderation by showing real GDP growth and personal consumption expenditure inflation from 1960 to the present. While economists have reached no consensus on the period’s exact start and end dates, the chart dates the Great Moderation as between 1984 and mid-2007. The chart clearly shows the decline in volatility both in real GDP growth and in inflation.

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