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※ McKinsey Quartrly 웹사이트에 사용자 등록을 하고 로그인하면 원문을 읽어볼 수 있다.
※ memo:
Widely cited figures predict that by 2015, roughly 3.3 million US business-processing jobs will have moved abroad.1 As of July 2003, around 400,000 jobs already had. Other research suggests that the number of US service jobs lost to offshoring will accelerate at a rate of 30 to 40 percent annually during the next five years.2 Vast wage differentials are prompting companies to move their labor-intensive service jobs to countries with low labor costs: for instance, software developers, who cost $60 an hour in the United States, the world's biggest offshorer, cost only $6 an hour in India, the biggest market for offshored services (see Vivek Agrawal, Diana Farrell, and Jaana K. Remes, "Offshoring and beyond," The McKinsey Quarterly, 2003 Number 4 Global directions, pp. 24–35).
Such projections have caused alarm in the United States. In February 2003, the cover of Business Week asked, "Is your job next?" In June, the US House of Representatives' Committee on Small Business held a hearing on "The globalization of white-collar jobs: Can America lose these jobs and still prosper?" Several US states are considering legislation to prohibit or severely restrict their state governments from contracting with companies that move jobs to low-wage developing countries,3 and labor unions, notably the Communications Workers of America, are lobbying Congress to prevent offshoring.
... How much value will be created in this way depends on the country's future economic performance. Historical trends can serve as a guide. If we use the statistics on reemployment and wage levels already noted—69 percent of nonmanufacturing workers are reemployed at 96.2 percent of their previous wages—and bear in mind that 72 cents of every dollar offshored had previously been spent on US wages,8 the indirect benefit to the US economy would come to an additional 45 to 47 cents for every dollar spent on offshoring. That is a conservative estimate, since workers in IT and business services tend to find jobs more quickly than do workers in the service sector as a whole, and the demographic shift will increase the demand for workers.
In this way, offshoring, far from being bad for the United States, creates net value for the economy. It directly recaptures 67 cents of every dollar of spending that goes abroad and indirectly might capture an additional 45 to 47 cents—producing a net gain of 12 to 14 cents for every dollar of costs moved offshore (Exhibit 2).
Widely cited figures predict that by 2015, roughly 3.3 million US business-processing jobs will have moved abroad.1 As of July 2003, around 400,000 jobs already had. Other research suggests that the number of US service jobs lost to offshoring will accelerate at a rate of 30 to 40 percent annually during the next five years.2 Vast wage differentials are prompting companies to move their labor-intensive service jobs to countries with low labor costs: for instance, software developers, who cost $60 an hour in the United States, the world's biggest offshorer, cost only $6 an hour in India, the biggest market for offshored services (see Vivek Agrawal, Diana Farrell, and Jaana K. Remes, "Offshoring and beyond," The McKinsey Quarterly, 2003 Number 4 Global directions, pp. 24–35).
Such projections have caused alarm in the United States. In February 2003, the cover of Business Week asked, "Is your job next?" In June, the US House of Representatives' Committee on Small Business held a hearing on "The globalization of white-collar jobs: Can America lose these jobs and still prosper?" Several US states are considering legislation to prohibit or severely restrict their state governments from contracting with companies that move jobs to low-wage developing countries,3 and labor unions, notably the Communications Workers of America, are lobbying Congress to prevent offshoring.
... How much value will be created in this way depends on the country's future economic performance. Historical trends can serve as a guide. If we use the statistics on reemployment and wage levels already noted—69 percent of nonmanufacturing workers are reemployed at 96.2 percent of their previous wages—and bear in mind that 72 cents of every dollar offshored had previously been spent on US wages,8 the indirect benefit to the US economy would come to an additional 45 to 47 cents for every dollar spent on offshoring. That is a conservative estimate, since workers in IT and business services tend to find jobs more quickly than do workers in the service sector as a whole, and the demographic shift will increase the demand for workers.
In this way, offshoring, far from being bad for the United States, creates net value for the economy. It directly recaptures 67 cents of every dollar of spending that goes abroad and indirectly might capture an additional 45 to 47 cents—producing a net gain of 12 to 14 cents for every dollar of costs moved offshore (Exhibit 2).
※ 위 그림에서는 미국 기업들이 역외 외주조달(offshoring)에 1 달러를 지출하면, 직접 이득으로 0.67 달러를 벌고, 여기에 간접 이득으로 버는 0.45~0.47 달러가 보태져서 미국 경제 전체로 1.12~1.14 달러의 이득이 돌아온다는 내용이다 (물론, 그림의 주를 보면 인도에서 외주조달하는 서비스 산업의 사례를 한 것이고, 부가되는 다른 가정들이 있기는 하다).
※ 다음 스위스 IP의 링크에서 보다 자세한 내용을 그대로 담고 있는 같은 출처의 논문을 볼 수 있다:
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