2018년 4월 18일 수요일

탐색: 1980년대 미국 주택시장

※ 발췌 (excerpts):

출처 1: America's housing market in five interactive charts (The Economist, Aug 24, 2016)


출처 2: How Bad Was the 1980s Real Estate Crash? (Mark J. Perry | Seeking Alpha, Feb 2, 2009)

In a previous post, I wrote about how the housing market crashed in the early 1980s under the crushing weight of the 17~18% mortgage rates, and how we seem to have forgotten how bad the real estate market suffered during that period. We hear a lot though about the "worst economy since the Great Depression," but nothing about the "worst real estate market since the 1980s."

The graph above tells the story of how bad it really was back then. From the peak of 4 million existing-home sales in 1978, there was a 50% drop in home sales over the next four years, so that by 1982 only 2 million homes were sold (data here, Table 7). It took almost two decades, or until 1996, before home sales exceeded the 1978 level of 4 million units. ( ... ... )


출처 3: America's 4 Nastiest Regional Housing Busts (Luke Mullins | US News, June 19, 2009)

( ... ... ) By looking at real estate crashes that occurred between the first quarter of 1975 and the first quarter of 2009 in inflation-adjusted terms, researchers uncovered some ominous findings:

First, house price downturns have tended to be long. The median time required to return to prior peak prices was 10½ to 20 years. Second, it tends to take longer for prices to rise from the trough to their former peak than it takes prices to decline from peak to trough. While the difference is small for Census Divisions and states, FHFA’s Metropolitan Statistical Area and Division (MSA) indexes suggest that the time from peak to trough tends to be about 3¾ years, whereas the median recovery period (from trough to prior peak) was 6⅔ years.

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