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The efficient-market view applies to individual stocks but not necessarily to the market as a whole. There is a pervasive evidence of long, self-reversing swings in stock market prices. These swings tend to reflect changes in the general mood of the financial community. Periods like the 1920s and 1990s saw investor optimism and rising stock prices, while the 1930s and 2007-2008 were periods of investor pessimism when stock prices declined sharply. [이어서]

However, say that we believed that the market reflected an "irrational exuberance" and was overvalued. What could we do? We could not individually buy or sell enough stocks to overcome the entire national mood. In addition, we might get wiped out if we bet against  the market a year or two before the peak. [이어서]

So, from a macroeconomic perspective, speculative markets can exhibit waves of pessimism and optimism without powerful economic forces moving in to correct these mood swings.