[발췌: 용어] Household formation

※ 발췌 (excerpts):

출처 1: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/12/the-most-overlooked-statistic-in-economics-is-poised-for-an-epic-comeback-household-formation/266573/ (Dec 2012)

( ... ... ) Household means a group of people living together. It can be six roommates, a four-person nuclear family plus a grandmother in the guest room, or a young couple of two. Formation means one more of those categories. More formations is good news. It suggests more people getting jobsm getting apartments, getting married, having kids, and (in all likeluihood) spending more money to furnish their new households and express their independence.

This recovery [from the last financial crisis], however, has been a story of few jobs, crowded apartments, low marriage-rates, and low birthrates. It all comes down to households. In 2007, household formation (in RED) went horizontal, clearly diverging from our two-grade growth trenad (graphic below via Credit Suisse):

Unemployment among Millennials is about twice the national average, and real wages for young people have declined outright since 2007. As a result, one in three older teens and twenty somethings reported moving back in with their parents. That means they weren't starting new households. They weren't paying rent, taking out mortgages, buying furniture, paying separate utility bills -- all of which fall under the Housing Category, which accounts for nearly a fifth of GDP.  ( ... ... )

출처 2: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/beyond-bls/pdf/young-adults-and-trends-in-household-formation.pdf (Sep 2016)

The pace of recovery in the housing market has been slower than the pace of recovery in the overall economy. The slow growth of household formation among young adults, a reversal of the sharp rise that occurred for this group during the housing boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s, is a key factor behind this trend. ( ... ... )

Furlong analyzes the relative growth in household formation by looking at the shifts in “headship rates,” the share of the population identified as heads of households. For nearly 50 years, the rate of growth in headships exceeded population growth by 0.2 percentage point per year. Since 2007, that has dropped to −0.5 percentage point per year. ( ... ... )

( ... ... ) U.S. Census Bureau projections suggest that household formations will
average about 1.5 million per year through 2020, which is much better than the 900,000 annual average of the last 5 years

The pace of household formation slowed substantially in the Great Recession and subsequent recovery. This is evident in Figure 1, which plots annual growth rates for the adult population and household formation. Notably, household growth fell relative to adult population growth after 2007, with an average yearly difference of –0.5 percentage point from 2007 to 2015. In contrast, for nearly five decades earlier, the pace of household formation exceeded population growth about 0.2 percentage point per year on average.

Figure 1: Annual changes in population growth and household formation

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