2015년 7월 12일 일요일

[발췌: W. Easterly's] Fiscal Policy, Debt Crises, and Economic Growth (2015)

출처: ... , 2015.
자료: http://williameasterly.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Central-Bank-of-Chile-Book-Chap.pdf


※ 발췌 (excerpt):

A well known property of growth rates both within countries and across countries is regression to the mean. Regression to the mean is not necessarily 100 percent, as there could be permanent changes in growth rates within countries and permanent growth differences between countries. However, a vast body of evidence suggests these permanent changes or differences are small relative to the total variation of growth rates, so mean reversion is quantitatively large.

To see the importance of mean reversion in the example just discussed, the following two graphs show it within the Eurozone countries and within the US alone. Both graphs show the change in growth has a negative relation to the initial growth rates. Above average growth regress partly back towards the mean, while the below average growth regresses upward towards the mean.

Anther way to state regression to the mean is there is low persistence in growth rates, and growth accelerations are temporary. This has received abundant confirmation in a wide variety of panel data sets on GDP growth rates (Easterly, Kremer, Pritchett, and Summers 1993, Hausmann, Rodrik, and Pritchett 2005).



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