2015년 12월 12일 토요일

[발췌] Bank of America: The 'Great Divorce' Between The World's Two Largest Economies Will Drive Currency and Rates Markets in 2016


출처: Luke Kawa, Bloomberg, Nov 23, 2015
자료: Bank of America: The 'Great Divorce' Between The World's Two Largest Economies Will Drive Currency and Rates Markets in 2016


※ 발췌 (excerpt)

"On the eve of the December FOMC meeting, we think the question is not whether the U.S. economy can live with higher interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. The question is, given the semi USD/RMB peg and China's increasing open capital account (which come at the expense of China's monetary independence), whether China can live with higher U.S. interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. We are skeptical. This why we think the USD/RMB peg, a marriage of convenience that has been the anchor for the global growth model for the better part of the last 15 years, is headed for a divorce, and we think the RMB devaluation on Aug. 11 was a first small step in this direction."


cf. China Spotlight: What is a "Basically Open Capital Account, Chinese Style?" (Feng Guo & Jean-Charles Sambor | IIF, June 2015)

cf. Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation (Peter Blair Henry | FRB SF, Nov 2006)

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