EMPIRICAL DETERMINATION OF EARTH’S CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

자료: http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/pres/Empirical.pdf

※ 메모: 

• The “commonly accepted” estimates of the sensitivity for global temperature change for a doubling of CO2 (4 W m-2) range from 1.5 to 4.5 K (IPCC, 2001), equivalent to (3 ± 1.5) K — a factor of three! [l = 0.75 ± 0.375 K/(W m-2)]. 

Fractional uncertainty dl/l = 0.5. Such an uncertainty is not very useful for policy planning purposes. The fractional uncertainty in climate sensitivity l is evaluated from fractional uncertainties in temperature change DT and forcing F as: .....

• The increase in global mean temperature over the industrial period is

0.6 ± 0.2 K, i.e., dDT/DT = 0.33. (IPCC, 2001)

• This uncertainty in response, together with the “commonly accepted”

uncertainty range in l implies uncertainty in forcing dF/F = 0.37.

This is wholly inconsistent with present physically based estimates!

• A reasonable target might be dl/l = 0.3

This would require dF/F = dDT/DT = 0.2.