Christophe ?

Je te vois, Christophe.
C'est bien longtemps que je t'ai vu.

C'était un rêve.
Choi aussi était là ; elle était avec toi.

Tous les deux et moi volent, en prenant un avoin.
Un avion, tout petit et léger, sans toit ni portes, mais qui avait de très longue ailes.
Nous nous amusons à un vol ; tu étais le pilote.

Après un atterissage forcé, sain et sauf, nous nous donnons du bon temps.
En nous relaxant, nous bavardant, nous promenant.

[메모] 보험 가입 꼭 살펴볼 서류 (주간경향, 2010)

출처: 주간경향, 보험 가입 꼭 살펴볼 서류, 2010. 07.13




※ 발췌:

1. 보험계약청약서
회사용과 가입자 보관용 2부로 작성되며, 고지의무와 자필서명을 필히 한 다음 가입자용을 보관한다면 문제될 것이 없다. 단 백지청약서에 서명을 요구한다면 계약을 거부하는 게 좋다.

2. 상품안내장
모집설계사가 해당 상품의 장점만 나열돼 있는 안내장을 가입자에게 보여 주며 설명하다가 막상 계약 성사 단계에서 다시 가져가는 수가 있다. 이 안내장이 추후 분쟁이 생겼을 때 입증 자료로 사용될 수 있기 때문에 반드시 청약서와 함께 보관하도록 한다.

3. 보험상품 설명서
가입자가 숙지해야 할 자료다. 보험료의 구성 비율 및 상세 보장 조건을 나타내며, 보험 가입자의 권리의무, 보험 계약 관련 특히 유의사항, 보험금 지급 관련 특히 유의사항, 보험료 납입 연체에 따른 계약해지 및 부활 등 보험계약의 중요한 사항이 집약돼 있기 때문에 반드시 내용을 검토하고 자필서명한 다음 보관해야 하는 서류다.

4. 보험약관
요즘 약관은 책, CD 등 다양한 형태로 존재한다. 대표적인 것 하나만 있으면 된다.

5. 가입설계서
해약환급금이 예시된 것을 꼭 보관하자. 보장 내용이 쉽게 정리돼 있어 보기 쉽다.

(생략: 6. 7. 8. )

[메모: 금융감독원] 금융생활 안내서 (보험편), 2007년

출처: 금융감독원 소비자보호센터, 금융생활 안내서 (보험편), 2007년 12월




보험 상품은 일반적으로 계약 시에 수반되는 몇 가지 서류가 있습니다. 계약서류인 보험계약청약서와 상품의 중요내용을 설명해주는 상품설명서와 보험보장의 범위를 명시하고 있는 약관, 보험가입사실을 증명하는 보험증권입니다. 따라서 청약서에 자신의 계약의사를 서명으로 확인하기 전에 반드시 요구해야 하는 서류는 상품설명서와 약관입니다. 상품설명서와 약관이 없는 경우에는 청약서 작성을 다음으로 미루는 것이 현명합니다.


    ⑦ 보험료 납입기간과 보험기간 살피기(자동갱신계약 여부)

    ◦ 보험 상품은 장기상품이며, 보험료 납입기간과 보험보장기간이 상이할 수 있습니다. 그리고, 보험료를 내는 방식도 여러 가지 방법이 있습니다. 따라서, 보험료를 일정하게 납입하는 방식인지 아니면, 기간이 지남에 따라 일정금액씩 상승하는 방식인지를 확인하는 것이 좋습니다.

    ◦ 자동갱신특약은 특정기간(예를 들어 1년, 5년 등)이 경과하면 계약의 계속여부를 보험회사가 결정할 수 있는 권리가 있는 계약입니다. 따라서, 갱신기간(예를 들어 1년, 5년 등) 도래시 마다 보험료가 상승하거나, 보험계약을 보험회사가 일방적으로 해지할 수 있다는 것을 염두에 두셔야 합니다. 무관심하게 내버려두고 있다가 막상 보험사고가 발생했을 때 이미 갱신거절로 보험계약이 소멸된 후라면 보장을 받을 수 없게 됩니다.

    ◦ 보험료 납입기간과 보장기간은 다를 수 있습니다. 예를 들어 보험료 납입기간이 10년이더라도 보험료 납입이 완료된 후 남은 보험기간 동안은 보험사고를 보장받을 수 있으므로 계약을 해지하거나 변경할 필요가 없습니다.

    ⑪ 보험계약자와 피보험자가 다른 경우

     ◦ 보험 가입을 하는 계약자 본인을 보험대상으로 하여 보험계약을 체결하는 경우가 많지만 때로는 가족을 대신해서 보험을 가입하는 경우도 많이 있습니다. 이 경우 보험료를 내는 보험계약자와 보험대상이 되는 피보험자가 다른 경우가 발생하게 되는 데, 반드시 피보험자의 동의가 있어야 합니다. 왜냐하면, 타인의 생명을 담보로 몰래 보험을 가입하고 고의로 타인을 생명을 해친다면 사회적인 문제가 발생하게 되므로, 이러한 경우를 방지하기 위해 보험계약자와 피보험자가 다른 경우에는 법에서 반드시 피보험자의 서명을 받도록 하고 있는 것입니다. 가족 또는 부부라 하더라도 예외가 없으므로 반드시 피보험자의 서면동의(자필서명)을 받아야 합니다.

    ⑰ 약관이나 보험 증권을 분실한 경우

     ◦ 보험약관은 모든 보험회사의 홈페이지에 게시되어 있습니다. 따라서, 해당 보험사의 홈페이지에서 다운로드를 받을 수 있습니다. 증권의 경우에는 해당 회사의 홈페이지나 고객센터에 증권 재발급을 신청하면 다시 발급받을 수 있습니다.


  1) 보험가입 후 보험회사에 대한 알릴 의무

   □ 계약자 또는 피보험자는 보험계약을 맺은 후 피보험자의 직업 또는 직무변경으로 인한 위험 증가 및 주소변경 등 보험약관에서 정한 ‘계약후 알릴 의무’사항이 발생하였을 때, 지체 없이 회사에 알리고 보험증권에 확인을 받아야 합니다. 그렇지 않은 경우 보험금 지급이 거절될 수도 있으므로 매우 주의해야 합니다.        

Dic/ into the ground

into the ground: beyond what is requisite or can be endured ; to exhaustion.

work/drive/run yourself into the ground: to work so hard that you become very tired or ill.

• Kay's working herself into the ground trying to meet her deadlines.

... Collins, LDOCE

run something into the ground:

1. to cause something to become less successful. ex) Unless she gets some help, she will probably run her business into the ground.
2. to use something so much that it does not work any more. ex) I gave that car to my son and he ran it into the ground. 

run yourself into the ground: to do so much you become unable to do anything well. ex) He'll run himself into the ground if he keeps working at this pace.

... Cambridge Dictionary of American Idioms 

run into the ground:

1. pursue a topic until it has been thoroughly discussed or exhausted, as in They've run the abortion issue into the ground.
2. Ruin or destroy, as in During her brief time as chief executive Marjorie just about ran the company into the ground.

cf. Both usages allude to pushing something so far that it is, in effect, buried. 

... The American Heritage® Dictionary of Idioms 

알려지지 않은 의도와 부정확한 판단의 무한 고리 [에서 벗어나기]

출처: https://twitter.com/hoctransibit

우울증 인지치료 연구한 뉴저지 의과대학의 아서 프리먼 교수는 "아무도 의도하지 않은 상황에서 괜히 모욕을 느낀다면, 그 고통은 당신이 자초한 것이다."라 했다. 누군의 말이나 행동에서 메타태그를 읽어내는 예민함과 눈치를 가졌다고 믿기전에 생각해볼 말.

자아가 건강한 사람이라면, 자신에 대한 신문 스크랩을 모두 믿지 않는다. 추종자들이 완벽하다고 칭찬해준다고 해서 그 말을 그대로 믿지도 않는다. 그들은 과거의 성공이 앞으로의 성공을 보장해줄 거라고 생각하지 않는다. ─아서 프리먼, 뉴저지 의과대학 교수

"다른 사람의 마음을 임의로 읽는 데 의존하지 말고, 상대방과 의사소통하는 능력을 키워야 한다. 이 때 첫 단계가 가장 어려운데, 바로 다른 사람의 마음을 읽을 수 있다는 믿음을 버리는 것이다." ─아서 프리먼, 뉴저지 의과대학 교수

당신이 모든 이에 대해 완벽하게 언제나 마음을 읽을 수 있다고 믿을 때, 당신에게는 문제가 생긴다. 따라서 기억해야 할 것은, 당신은 몇몇 사람에 대해 어느 정도 정확하게 가끔씩 추측할 수 있을 뿐이라는 것이다. ─아서 프리먼, 뉴저지 의과대학 교수

Dic/ beat into

beat someone into (doing) something: to beat a person until the person agrees to do something or to assume a particular attitude.

• They had to beat John into submission before he gave up.
• Max threatened to beat Lefty into helping him rob the candy store.

beat something into someone: Fig. to use physical abuse to get someone to learn something; to work very hard to get someone to learn something.

• Do I have to beat this into your head?
• Why can't you learn? Why do I have to beat in this information?
• Can't you learn by yourself? Does someone have to beat it in?

beat into:

 1. To mix something with something else with a vigorous stirring motion.
 2. To batter someone or something into some state or condition.
 3. To force someone to do something, esp. through the use of physical violence.

• I beat the eggs into the milk and flour gently, so that the batter didn't get too stiff.
• The robbers beat their victim into submission.
• I didn't want to cooperate with those crooks, but they beat me into being the driver of the getaway car.

... McGraw-Hill Dictionary of American Idioms and Phrasal Verbs, The American Heritage

[발췌: Holly Young] Youth entrepreneurship: your stories (Guardian, Apr 2014)

출처: Guardian, 30 April 2014.


※ 발췌 (excerpt):

From bringing live sports to a Nairobi slum to setting up an IT firm Dhaka, we share some of the stories submitted to our latest witness assignment.

Youth entrepreneurship is in vogue. Business leaders and policymakers are getting on board, and it frequently pops up as a topic on the conference circuit. But when we look past the excitement, does it stand up as an effective solution to the mounting youth unemployment crisis? What is the reality for young people trying to start, and build, business in the global south?

To find out, our recent Witness assignment called on young entrepreneurs to share their experiences. What drove them towards a DIY approach to job creation? Who helped them along the way and what were the key challenges? And is it really a silver bullet for the job crisis in the global south?

Here are a few picks from your contributions:

( ... ... )

'The only thing holding back Ugandan entrepreneurs is access to capital', Farooq Kiryowa in Kampala, Uganda.

My name is Farooq Kiryowa, Together with my business partner Sula Abdul I co-own Energy Uganda Foundation, a business based in Kawempe on the outskirts of Kampala providing efficient and safe cookstoves.

The business began in 2006 with a start-up cost of UGX 1.5m(￡398). At the time, the team comprised four full-time employees, including myself. The main challenge that our business was finding the right source of capital. This is especially hard if you are a small-scale business owner in the developing world.

In Uganda where there is a very large informal economy, very few banks are prepared to offer loans without solid collaterals, salary slips, well-documented financial records or a number of guarantors. ( ... ... )

For us, the turning point was enrolling into a loan guarantee programme in 2009, run by the NGO GVEP International. The programme targeted small energy enterprise that would otherwise struggle to obtain a bank loan.

Eight years later, our company offers employment to 48 permanent staff.

Our story shows the typical problems faced by start-up business. The only thing holding back Ugandan entrepreneurs is access to capital. People are not lacking in motivation or skills, they just simply don't have the means to finance their ideas. ( ... ... )


'My business allows me to pay two employees and cover my basic needs', Charles Kaindi, in Nairobi, Kenya.

Before becoming an entrepreneur, I often had to borrow money from friends and family to pay my bills every month.

I have now founded an entertainment business called the Sao Paolo Stadium in Kibera, Nairobi. The business offers services like a PlayStation, DVD movies and live football matches on television to residents in the Kibera slum in Nairobi. ( ... ... ) I was helped along the way by the support of the Kenya Youth Business Trust.

( ... ... )

[발췌] An economist's answer to the youth employment crisis in Africa (Guardian, Mar 2014)

출처: Jan Rieländer and Henri-Bernard Solignac-Lecomte in Paris, Guardian, 21 March 2014.


※ 발췌 (excerpt):

This is a tough time to be young in Africa. Although the growth prospects of the continent are good─growth rate estimates are 4.8% in 2013 and 5.3% in 2014─40 million young people are estimated to be out of work and many more in poor employment.

The African Economic Outlook estimates that 53 million of Africa's 200 million young people between ages of 15 and 24 are in unstable employment and 40 million young Africans are out of work. However, while 18 million of them are looking or a job, 22 million have already given up.

Working with the Gallup world poll to collate household data for 37 countries, partners in the African Economic Outlook also found that only a minority of young working Africans have a 'good' job. Wage employment in the formal sector concerns only 7% of youth in low income countries (LICs) and 10% in middle-income countries (MICs). Others fall in categories defined by International Labour Organisation (ILO) as 'vulnerable employment', including self-employment and unpaid work (such as family farming). And while self-employment may not be bad per se, in the overwhelming majority of cases it reflects the lack of alternatives, and implies precarious living conditions and working poverty.

Surprisingly, Africa's poorest countries have less unemployed youth than the better-off countris. As countries grow richer, consumers start flocking to known brands, away from local products that used to provide livelihoods for many locals. With rising incomes, families also have more capacity to support their young job seekers, who can therefore be more selective, rejecting job offers that fo unfilled. A trend that leads to higher youth unemployment and potentially broader social costs.


Removing obstacles for local business

So how can we remove obstacles for local business? First, there is the attitude of governments towards small business. The fate of Tunisian vegetable seller Mohamed Bouazizi is an example of the importance of this. Early in 2011, he torched himself and sparked a revolution. Instead of providing him with services and incentives to register his business, government officials had been impounding his equipment and his vegetables, preventing him from growing his business and feeding his family.

Second, governments can support social insurance adapted to the needs of small businesses such as Bouazizi's. ( ... ... )

Third, many small entrepreneurs in Africa do not have access to the loans that could allow them to grow their business. Although obtaining very small amounts of financing has become easier thanks to microfinance, obtaining medium-sized loans, say $10,000, is very difficult. Most banks are not interested. They make money more easily with bigger firms.

Fourth, better services could do a great deal. For instance, a stable electricity supply would allow many to start small-scale production outfits.


Training young people for the jobs that African firms offer

Many young peole in Africa suffer from skills mismatches. They have been to school, even university, but did not obtain the practical skills that employers are seeking. Many firms are looking for young people with technicl skills to operate machines and oversee manufacturing processes but cannot find them. At the same time Africa boasts the highest share of students in the humanities and social sciences of any region in the world. Many young people with a university education cannot find work. In South Africa, for example, firms report 600,000 vacancies, while 800,000 young university graduates are unemployed.


Does Africa need a new industrial policy?

( ... ) Recent evidence gives a few hints of the most promising sectors.

( ... ... )

The greatest potential for inclusive growth may actualy be found in agriculture and agroindustry: beyond the well-known examples of export sectors such as cashew nuts and cut flowers, the next big thing may well be African local and regional markets, buoyed by steady demographic growth, urbanisation and rising income levels.

( ... ... )

[발췌: C-E Chikezie] Decent work for youths: it's not about us vs them (Guardian, Jan 2014)

출처: Guardian, 23 Janruary 2014


※ 발췌 (excerpt):

Our discussion of the issue of youth unemployment often magics away the politics of a globalised world and leaves us just with well-introduced, country-specific, projects.

Youth unemployment is a global problem, although its manifestation in the poorest countries are all the more stark.

The analysis and remedies presented in a report this month by McKinsey on youth unemployment in Europe apply just as well in underdeveloped Afrian economies. Employers have positions to fill but cannot find suitable candidates among the armies of unemployed. Graduates leave eduation with skills ill-suited to employers' needs.

We can also draw similar conclusions about the ultimate impact this has on youths themselves. According to the Prince's Trust Youth Index 2014, joblessness and long-term unemployment among young people in the UK is associated with heightened feelings (compared to their peers in work or education) of hopelessness and helplessness (feeling they have nothing to live for) and symptoms of mental illness, including suicidal thoughts, panic attacks and feelings of self-loathing. It's a pretty bleak picture but one with which youths in, say, the urban slums of downtown Freetown, Sierra Leone would immediately empathise.

( ... ... )

In fact, for too long, development industry ignored jobs. The World Bank asserts now that jobs drive development but jobs used to be the elephant in the room. The millennium development goals only surrptitiously slipped in a new target to "achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people" belatedly in 2005.

( ... ... )

동시에 엄습하는 기쁨과 슬픔

기쁘면서 동시에 슬픈 감정.

[참고] The komplex plane- Discontinuous humor

http://komplexify.com/math/humor_pure/DiscontinuousHumor.html

[발췌: Ian McMaster] Three economists (2009)

출처: Business Spotlight Blog by Ian McMaster (11.02.2009)


There are three types of economists: those who can count and those who can't. That's an old joke, I know, but it's still one of my favourites.

At the moment, the most common criticism of economists is not that they can't count, but that they didn't see the financial crisis coming.

What is the point of having economists if they can tell you when the economy is likely to continue as it has in the recent past, but can't foresee dramatic changes (which is precisely when you want their advice)?

Such economists are about as much use as doctors who always say you will remain in the same state of health. The key difference is that, after your health changes, doctors usually know why. Economists, on the other hand, are notorious for their different interpretations of history.
Over the past ten years, two economists in particular have enhanced their reputation by forecasting the doom that was on the horizon.

The first Cassandra is Robert J. Shiller, the American professor of economics at Yale University. Shiller warned back in 2000 that the stock market was experiencing a bubble that would burst. He is also known for his (correct) pessimism about the US housing market.

The second prophet of doom is Nouriel Roubini, the Turkish-American professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Roubini forecast a crash back in 2005. His pessimistic projections have led the media to dub him "Dr Doom".

My own favourite doomster also writes incisive analyses of the US economy — and has done so for many years. But, unlike Shiller and Roubini, he is British. He is also a former professional oboe player and is now 82.

When I was an economics student in the late 1970s, this doomster was the director of the Department of Applied Economics in Cambridge, England. Before that, he had worked for the British Treasury for 14 years. And he later became one of the Treasury's "six wise men", a panel of independent forecasters.

His name? Wynne Godley. On Friday, we'll look in more detail at Godley's economic analyses.

* * *

Words of Wisdom (13.02.2009)

Look at the following comments and guess when they were written:

"For more than a year now, a recession has been developing, and is clearly now accelerating. It began when life went out of the property market. The downturn has been compounded by an overdue reduction in net borrowing by households which is now reducing consumption."

"I think the seizing up of financial markets may well result in a collapse in lending in the US to the non-financial sector so large that it causes a recession deeper and more stubborn than any other for decades — and deeper than anyone else is expecting."

Difficult, I know. But go to the top of the class if you guessed January 1991 for the first comment (about Britain) and January 2008 for the second one.

The comments show how little things change, although what was called a "financial squeeze" in 1991 is now usually dubbed a "credit crunch".

Both quotes are from Wynne Godley, an 82-year-old British economist and former professional oboe player. Godley has been one of Britain's most insightful (and unconventional) economists over the past 40 years.

The first quote is from a fascinating collection of articles written by Godley between 1988 and 1992, and republished by the New Statesman magazine. The second is from the Financial Times new year's survey of economists for 2008.

Godley, seen as a permanent pessimist by some, has consistently warned about the dangers of unsustainable long-term trends, such as excessive borrowing by US consumers. His analyses have also emphasized the interplay of the different economic sectors (government, the private sector, foreign trade).

From the obvious statement that net borrowing by all economic sectors taken together must equal zero - for every borrower there must be a lender - Godley derives fascinating conclusions. For example, he explains the need for increased government deficits if there is a reduction in net borrowing by households and firms (as in 1991 and now).
At the end of 2007, in a paper called "The U.S. economy: Is there a way out of the woods?", Godley wrote: "We conclude that at some stage there will have to be a relaxation of fiscal policy large enough to add perhaps 2 per cent of GDP to the budget deficit."

How right he was.

[발췌: The Economist] The unmeasurable lightness of being (1996)

출처: The Economist, Nov 23, 1996.  Vol. 341,  Iss. 7993,  pp. 85-86 (2 pp.)


※ 발췌 (excerpt):

Economic statistics can cause governments to lose elections or wipe billions off share prices. Unfortunately, many of the numbers are wrong.

THERE are three kinds of economists: those who can count and those who can't." That old joke gets a good laugh at economics conferences, yet it cuts dangerously close to the bone. Economists spend much time churning statistics through computer models or using them to justify policy, but few worry about the reliability of those numbers. They ought to: traditional measures of economic performance are becoming increasingly dodgy.

Number-crunching is not just an academic issue. Important questions, such as why all the billions of dollars invested in computers have failed to boost productivity growth, rest upon the accuracy of official statistics. Faulty figures distort people's vision. America's economic debate, for example, has been shaped partly by official numbers showing that productivity growth has slowed-from an annual rate of 2.6% in 1960-73 to 0.9% in 1980-95-and that real wages have stagnated. Calculate those figures correctly, however, and America's true rate of productivity growth in the 1990s could be almost as high as in the
1960s, while real wages could be rising at a respectable pace. ( ... ... )

[발췌] The Monk Manager and the Road to Abbey Management: Essays in Organisation ...

출처: The Monk Manager and the Road to Abbey Management: Essays in Organisation ...
자료: 구글도서



※ 발췌 (excerpt):

12. 'Gestalt' therapy

[This section draws on the work of Gaston De Cock of the University of Leuven. Gestalt therapy as a training method, has heen based on the work of Fritz Perls.]

It is important to note that Gestalt therapy has little or nothing in common with Gestalt psychology. In connexion with the latter one could consult some of the work of amongst others Kurt Koffka, Wolfgang Koehler and Max Wertheimer. According to the principle of Gestalt therapy, humans experience reality through certain forms of existence or specific ways of contact with the worl. Note that this does not mean that the reality of human life is something out there alien to the person and unconnected to this thinking and consciousness. George Berkeley even argued that there was no reality at all apart from the perception of things in the mind of people.

The following existential forms are usually identified:

a. Aboutism ─ In the contact with the world determined by aboutism people do not get really personally involved nor committed to reality. Their thinking, actions, behaviour, always seem to be about something else no directly related to themselves. It is quite unfortunate that most of the sciences operate in a reality of this 'aboutist' level only. Thiking of the psychologist, sociologist, economist, etc., who discusses issues of human reality as if he or she were to belong to a different realm or as if he or she were to be a 'humanite' of a completely different species compared to those involved with the concepts of his or her theories. One could consult in this connexion e.g., ( ... ... ) Aboutism, as existential form therefore, is essentially based on non-involvement or at least on the pretence of non-involvement.

b.Shouldism ─ The experience of reality guided by shouldism is concerned with what should be or what ought to be. Cases of this type of existential activity can be found pretty openly in religion, moral philosophy, ethics, deontology and in fact in most normative science. Many a positive science however─think of a specific kind of positive economics, psychology, management[─]openly pretend to dwell in 'aboutism' and 'isism'. Yet quite often a wide array of hidden shouldist assumption and purposes is barely hidden beneath the surface statements. Think of the way Frank Green and Peter Nore[1977] have discussed and analysed 'The myth of objectivity in positive economics'. Compare with the criticism of Edmund Ions[1977] of the fashionable use of [pseudo-] mathematical techniques in various social sciences. According to the Ions a good deal of the time the author in question becomes so engrossed and overtaken by his mathematical methodology that he largely ignores the argument he was actually supposed to be dealing with. Not unfrequently when one confronts mathematicians ^pure sang^ with the so-called mathematical analysis used in say economics and the like, their reaction is often one of bewilderment and surprise. ( ... ... ) In two articles under the titile: 'When numbers get serious' and 'The problem with statistics' ^The Economist^ [cf. 23 November 1996] is very critical of the current application of a particular branch of mathematics. Under the caption: 'Damned lies. Economic statistics are in a bad way the paper stresses that in relation to economic activity: "finding the right numbers is much harder than you might think ... [because] many ... [economic] activities cannot be seen and cannot be numbered". Spending much more public money on gathering the 'right' figures and numbers may help but: "they would still be far from perfect". The harsh conclusion is: "the fact that economics are becoming increasingly unmeasurable, at least in precise ways" and we ought better learn to live with that. ^The Economist^ recommends: "Greater modesty ... in the application of statistical exactitude ... [in the sense that] ... policymakers should not set targets that are over-precise", or in other words, that are more precise: "than the underlying data can support". One must at long last accept that: "most statistics are approximations". John Maynard Keynes knew this already many years ago when he quipped that: "It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong". This idea must have been at the back of the mind of people like Graham Galer of Royal Dutch Shell and Denis Loveridge [1992] of the Open University Business School when they developed the notion of ^scenarios^ rather than just forecasting. In scenario-writing one does not attempt to forecast precisely what exactly is going to happen when, where and how. Scenarios try to produce nothing more but neither less than say, two or three, perhaps four at the most, of reasonably wide 'bands' of meaningful potential future activity and development. The scenarios are supposed to be quite different yet paradoxically intimately related in meaning. ^The Economist^ does not leave it at that and in the same issue [Volume 341, Number 7993] with some tongue-in-cheek reference to Milan Kundera it continues it assault on 'economic statistics' under the caption: "The unmeasurable lightness of being". The article starts with the old joke that: "There are three kinds of economists: those who can count and those who can't
.  But in a more serious tone the paper denounces economists for: "churning statistics through computer models ... [whereas] ... few worry about the reliability of those numbers". The late Jean Gimpel must be smiling now in the Walhalla of academics when ^The Economist^ stresses that: "Important questions, such as why all the billions of dollars invested in computers have failed to boost productivity growth, rest upon the accuracy of official statistics", even wondering whether the numbers collected are relevant at all. Three main reasons are given for the enormous challenges to the significance of current figures. One, the growing importance of internal decision-making in multinational corporations. Two, ordinary and conventional collection of figures has tremendous difficulty with the: "production and manipulation of ideas" which reflects an apparently incessantly increasing share of economic output. That is why the number-crunchers often steer away from: "fast-growing sectors such as software, telecommunications, entertainment, health care and financial services" not to mention education. Three: "new goods, shorter product cycles and rapid quality improvements" make it much more delicate to measure the variation in output and prices over various periods of time. ( ... ... ) To conclude: "standard economic statistics fail to capture many of the benefits of information technology, which increasingly take the form [back to Jean Gimpel] not of cost saving or greater volume, but of improved quality, time saving, convenience and increased consumer choice".

c. Isism ─ Isism refers to the search for the why in events and things. This existential activity is reflecte in the examination of the meaning and being of things in the cognitive experience leading to ontology: what does it mean to be what one is, what there is, what things and events are.

d. Gestalt therapy [not to be confused with Gestalt psychology] ─ Rather than to talk about something else [cf. aboutims], or to argue how things should be [shouldism], or to explore why things are what they are [isism], in Gestalt therapy one tries to understand what is via the how, not via the why. Authenticity of behaviour is encouraged. In other words, you are urged not merely to say what you are feeling, but to be what you are and where you are.

The questions asked are:
- what are you doing
- what are you feeling
- how are you doing whatever you are engaged in doing
Via these questions people are assumed to learn to confront the Here & NOw.

The slogans of Gestalt therapy are:
- do not think, use your senses
- abandon doing as if, stop pretending
- loose your mind and come to your senses.

( ... ... )

[발췌] Three kinds of economists (joke)

출처: http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/three_kinds_of_economists_joke

※ 발췌 (excerpt):

The old economics joke goes: “There are three kinds of economists: Those who can add/count and those who can’t.” (Also, “Those who know how to add/count and those who don’t.) The “three kinds of economists” joke has been cited in print since at least April 1992.

The joke has been cited in print since at least December 1990, when it described “three kinds of people.” In 1991, the joke involved “three kinds of actuaries;” in 1992, the joke involved “three kinds of mathematicians;” and in 1993, the joke involved “three kinds of computer scientists.”

( ... ... )

[발췌: The Economist] All or nothing (1997)

출처: The Economist, "All or nothing," Nov 1997


※ 발췌 (excerpt):

There are three kinds of economists: those who can count and those who can't. Anybody familiar with this old joke ought to be sceptical of economists who claim that one plus one equals three. Yet, applied to labour-market deregulation, it may well be true. Reforms to make labour markets more flexible, such as cutting jobless benefits, reducing minimum wages or relaxing job-protection laws, reinforce one another. The effect of any one measure is therefore greater if it is pushed through in tandem with other reforms than if it is done in isolation.

This conclusion from a paper* by David Coe at the IMF and Dennis Snower at Birkbeck College, London, would provide an excellent starting point for the special jobs summit that European leaders are due to attend on an ambitious but empty proposal from the European Commission to adopt a "target" to cut Europe's unemployment rate from 11% to 7% over the next five years. Why empty? Because until governments accept that the only way to reduce unemployment by much is to make their labour markets much more flexible, they stand no chance of meeting their own target.

The need for greater flexibility will become even more pressing after European monetary union. If an external shock, such as a big rise in the price of oil, hits one member of a single currency far harder than its European neighbors, it will no longer be able to cut interest rates or devalue its currency to cushion the impact on its economy. Unless wages fall or unemployed workers move to areas where the demand for jobs is higher, unemployment will rise further. Yet studies  suggest that in Europe real wages are only half as flexible as those in America, and that Europe's workers are much less likely to move around in search of work than American ones.

( ... ) The IMF estimates that the regions's structural unemployment rate is now as high as 9%. ( ... ... )

By contrast, America's structural unemployment rate is 5-6%. Britain's performance has also been impressive. The IMF reckons that radical labour-market reforms have reduced the country's structural unemployment rate from almost 9% to under 6% over the past decade; its actual jobless rate has fallen to just 5.2%.

Several governments in continental Europe have made a modest start at reforming their labour markets. Some, including France and Germany, have trimmed jobless benefits; Italy has stopped tying wage increases to the inflation rate; Belgium, France and Spain have reduced minimum wages for young people. But all of these initiatives have so far failed to cut unemployment.

Messrs Coe and Snower have built a more formal economic model, which details how workers search for jobs and firms hire staff, to explore how different types of labour-market reforms interact with one another. Suppose, for instance, that a government cuts unemployment benefits. Workers now have a sharper incentive to seek work and so unemployment should fall. An increase in the number of job seekers will also put downward pressure on wages. Lower wage costs should, in turn, boost employment.

The model shows that the size of these effect is magnified if, say, firms' firing costs are reduced. As well as giving firm a greater incentive to hire workers, this improves an unemployed person's chance of getting a job and so makes him search even harder. Moreover, the amplified effect of these reforms reduces unemployment and hence the total cost of jobless benefits, which allows the government to cut tax rates, further improving the incentive for the unemployed to seek work.

( ... ... )

* “Policy Complementarities: The Case for Fundamental Labour Market Reform”, by David Coe and Dennis Snower. IMF Staff Papers Volume 44, No. 1, 1997.

[발췌] Some remarks on using commas in English

자료 1. When to Use a Comma before "And"

Two specific situations call for the use of a comma before "and."

1. The first is created when we have three or more items in a series. This mark of punctuation is called the serial comma. ....
2. The second situation occurs when "and" is being used to coordinate two independent clauses. An independent clauses─also known as a main clause─is a group of words that has a subject and a verb and can stand alone as a sentence. In the following example, the independent clauses are in brackets:

• [Miguel took piano lessons for sixteen years], and [today he is an accomplished performer].

The use of comma would also apply when any of the seven coordinating conjunctions (and, but, or, nor, for, so, yet) join two independent clauses.

Notice in the next example that we do not use a comma before "and" because it does not join two independent clauses but merely joins two verbs:

• Miguel took piano lessons for sixteen years and today is an accomplished performer.

Here we have only one independent clause─two verbs ("took: and "is") but one subject("Miguel").

Keep in mind that length is not a factor in determining when to use the comma before a coordinating conjunction. In this next example, even though the sentence is long, we do not need a comma because we have only one independent clause. ...

• Sigfried wanted to go back to school to earn a college degree but could not afford to quit his job and lose his health care benefits.

( ... ... )

Since commas are used in pairs to enclose phrases that interrupt a clause or that are intended to function parenthetically, a writer may choose to place a comma before "and" (or any of the seven coordinating conjunctions) when the conjunction launches such a phrase:

• Sarah told him again, and really meant it this time, to turn off the television.
• Alice will ask John once, but only once, to forgive her. 

TEST YOURSELF ( ... ... )


자료 2. Comma Before And


자료 3. Should I use a comma before “and” or “or”?


자료 4. Comma Between Compound Subject and Predicate

A compound subject is a subject which lists more than one thing. Commas may be used within the compound subject to separate the nouns, but should not be used between the subject and the predicate of the sentence.

• Some frequent causes of headaches are(,) stresses, lack of exercises and dehydration.

The comma between ^are^ and ^stress^ should be removed because it separates the predicate from the subject. The other comma is grammatically correct.

• Literacy and good writing skills(,) are necessary in most careers.
• Time and space(,) are fascinatingly fields of study.

자료 5. Unnecessary Comma in a Complex Sentence

Complex sentences are sentences which have two clauses. There can be two independent clauses (each having a subject and predicate), or an independent clause and a dependent clause (missing a subject or predicate). Generally, if the dependent clause comes second, a comma is not used before the dependent [meaning subordinate?] clause. Frequently, but not always, a conjunction will begin the dependent clause. ( ... ... )


... ...

James Tobin(1985), Victoria Chick(2013) on money and finance

https://twitter.com/MorganRicks1/status/762649326711672832

https://twitter.com/DanielaGabor/status/762984755906351104

Dic/ Usages/ "We are spoilt"

Let's admit: we are spoilt, most of us. We don't think twice to express our discontent if the Internet does not work, or complain over the slightly inferior quality of accommodation, meals, or the comfort of the facilities in the world or continental events. And then, when we read a report on athletes who are less fortunate and have to fight elementary hardships day by day, we stop to think and ─ stop complaining.

Link. 

We live in a world of comforts. Our pizzas are delivered to us at our doorsteps; we are spoilt for choice in online shopping, choosing everything from sneakers to underwear with a simple click; even dating is as simple as swiping someone's face ringt or left. We are earning big money, much more that what our parents did. ...
Yet we are miserable. We are stressed because our jobs are not perfect; we are unhappy because our partners are not perfect; ....

Link.

We are spoilt to have our own botanic gardens. 

Here in Malaysia we are spoilt with choices of delicious foods. But let's face it─many of our favourites are not going to win many points in a "healthy food" contest. Rich coconut milk based curries, milky teh tarik loaded with sugar, deep fried delights, spicy gravies, delightfully rich kueh... Delicious─but high in fat and sugar foods─when combined with the generally low levels of physical activity, are considered key culprits to Malaysia's current obesity epidemic.

Link.

Strait Times: Singaporeans are spoilt!!! 

Singaporeans are a bunch of whiners just like what our esteemed MPs said in parliament. Ordinary Singaporeans are unappreciative of the excellent system set up by the PAP and the 1st World standards they have in place. ... Singaporeans are so lucky to have world class services yet they don't realise it. People in California, Melbourne and other cities without the benefit of a PAP govt are deprived of good public transport. They have to drive themselves around in their own car. ...how terrible! 

Link.

... ...

이곳은 무의식의 입구?

자리가 채 열 개가 되지 않는 아주 작은 강의실.
학생들 서너 명이 앉아 있다.

그중 하나가 나를 보며 말한다.
“교수님이 이전 수업을 듣지 않은 사람은 따라가기 힘들 거라고 했어.”

“많은 학생들이 따라오지 못할 테니까 강의실도 이렇게 작은 방으로 바뀐 거니?”
나는 자리에 앉아 이렇게 물었지만 아무도 대답하지 않는다.

방안을 두리번거리며 이 수업을 더 들어야 하나 말아야 하나 걱정이 커져만 간다.
이전 수업을 많이 빼 먹었기 때문이다.

‘가방을 챙겨서 그냥 나가 버릴까?’

이렇게 망설이는 사이, 이상한 생각이 스친다. ‘이건 이전에도 많이 해 본 걱정이야. 아주 익숙해. 이곳에 또 왔어. 이왕 왔으니까 이곳에 뭐가 있는지 살펴봐야겠어.’

이렇게 마음먹고 출입구로 걸어가 문을 열고 방을 나서자마자 내 몸은 자동적으로 왼쪽으로 향한다. 그쪽으로 한 발짝 내딛자 지하 공간의 입구가 펼쳐진다. 급경사로 푹 꺼지며 내려가는 듯한 그곳은 너무 캄캄해서 아무것도 보이지 않는다. 원형을 그리며 내려가는 계단 같기도 하고 까마득하게 떨어지는 지하 동굴 같기도 하다.

‘저곳으로 들어갈 수는 없어. 너무 깊은 곳이야.’ 

공포감에 몸을 반대편으로 되돌리려고 하지만 그리로 들어가려는 몸이 잘 멈춰지지 않아 안간힘을 쓴다. 무엇이 잡아당기는 것 같다. 옷이 무엇에 걸린 것 같기도 하다.

몸을 차츰 반대편으로 되돌리는 사이 ‘삐이잉-’하는 기계음 같은 소리가 점점 크게 들린다. 그 소리를 들으면서 ‘저 지하 동굴 같은 곳은 포기하고 그 반대편이나 살펴보자’는 생각이 스치지만, 다른 생각이 엄습한다. ‘아니야 이건 이미 산통이 깨진 거야. 꿈에서 나가야 해.’

그렇게 꿈에서 나가자고 마음먹고 그 상태로 꿈에서 깬다.

#꿈

* * *

꿈속에서 ‘이왕 이곳에 왔으니 뭐가 있는지 살펴보자’는 생각을 하는 순간의 나는 꿈에 들어왔음을 자각했던 것 같다. 그러고는 지하 동굴 같은 공간을 보고 겁에 질려 탐험의 의지를 상실했다.

몸을 재운 채로 의식의 선명도를 높게 유지하는 훈련을 다시 시작하면 무의식의 세계 속으로 더 깊이 들어갈 수 있을까?