2013년 4월 11일 목요일

[발췌: J.M. Keynes's] The Great Slump of 1930


출처: J.M.Keynes, Essays in Persuasion, (MACMILLAN, 1931)
자료: Gutenberg.ca


※ 발췌(excerpts): 

The world has been slow to realise that we are living this year in the shadow of one of the greatest economic catastrophes of modern history. But now that the man in the street has become aware of what is happening, he, not knowing the why and wherefore, is as full to-day of what may prove excessive fears as, previously, when the trouble was first coming on, he was lacking it what would have been a reasonable anxiety. He begins to doubt the future. Is he now awakening from a pleasant dream to face the darkness of facts? Or dropping off into a nightmare which will pass away?

He need not be doubtful. The other was not a dream. This is a nightmare, which will pass away with the morning. For the resources of Nature and men's devices are just fertile and productive as they were. The rate of our progress towards solving the material problems of life is not less rapid. We are as capable as before of affording for every one a high standard of lifeㅡhigh, I mean, compared with, say, twenty years agoㅡand will soon learn to afford a standard higher still. We were not previously deceived. But to-day we have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand. The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a timeㅡperhaps for a long time.

I doubt whether I can hope to bring what is in my mind into fully effective touch with the mind of the reader. I shall be saying too much for the laymen, too little for the expert. Forㅡthough no one will believe itㅡeconomic is a technical and difficult subject. It is even becoming a science. However, I will do my bestㅡat the cost of leaving out, because it is too complicated, much that is necessary to a complete understanding of contemporary events.

First of all, the extremen violence of the slump is to be noticed. In the three leading industrial worldㅡthe United States, Great Britain, and Germanyㅡ10,000,000 workers stand idle. There is scarcely an important industry anywhere earning enough profit to make it expandㅡwhich is the test of progress. ( ... ... )

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