자료: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9A06EFDD1639F933A25751C1A963958260#
Think back to late 1969. Technology had just put men on the moon. New methods of storing, retrieving and manipulating seas of data in minutes or seconds were changing the business world. As the stock market's high-tech sector boomed, investors fawned on Telex and Memorex, makers of computer tape drives and magnetic tapes.
Few people believed that any company could overtake the pair, which had built an early lead in an even newer method of data storage, disk drives. And investors heartily scoffed at the notion that the pair had anything to fear from a late entry into the field, a stodgy old company called I.B.M. Wall Street professed that Telex or Memorex would be the next I.B.M., putting Big Blue out of the data storage business.
Reflecting that assurance, Wall Street bid up the price of Telex shares from $44 in August 1969 to $142 the following February, and those of Memorex from about $80 in August 1969 to $174 in December.
For that lesson in history, thank Hersh Cohen, manager of the Smith Barney Appreciation fund, who last week commented that the recent levitation of Internet-related stocks reminded him of the moves in Memorex and Telex 26 years ago.
Even after retreating to $128.50 on Friday from $174 early last week, Netscape is up 358 percent since its initial offering in August. Shares of Spyglass, another Internet software provider, hit $121 last week before closing at $98, up from $17 in June.
In recent months, Netscape has been called the next Microsoft. Goldman, Sachs recently replaced Microsoft with Netscape on its list of recommended stocks, arguing that rapidly developing Internet technologies would unseat Bill Gates and company.
The reasons for those predictions, today and 26 years ago, were remarkably similar. In each case, the larger, more established company was entering the market too late and too slowly to capture much business.
Particularly astute students of history might recall that I.B.M. was able to survive. Telex and Memorex soon fell into a downward spiral as regulators questioned their accounting and disclosure practices and I.B.M. muscled down the price of data storage devices. Stock prices plummeted, ultimately leading Telex and Memorex into a merger and Chapter 11 bankruptcy, from which it emerged last year.
Today's circumstances are not exactly those of 26 years ago, but investors in Netscape and Spyglass might consider some prescient observations.
"One of these is that both stocks are high-priced, which means smaller commissions for in-and-out traders than transactions of comparable value in a lower-priced issue. Another is that both stocks have relatively thin supplies of available stock, which contributes to their volatility (witness last week's daily price changes) and also enhances the opportunities to make money on both the long and short sides of a trade."
All true of Netscape and Spyglass today. But the words are from The New York Times of April 5, 1970, describing Memorex and Telex. Over the next 60 days, shares of Telex plunged 53 percent and those of Memorex fell 43 percent.
Most of the decline in Telex came after it declared a 5-for-1 stock split, pushing supply back in line with demand, making daily price swings less lucrative for traders and leading investors to take profits.
Spyglass shares will split 2 for 1 on Dec. 20. Netscape shareholders are scheduled to vote on a proposed 2-for-1 split on Jan. 23.
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