2015년 12월 31일 목요일

[발췌: J.S. Landefeld et al.'s] Taking the Pulse of the Economy: Measuring GDP (2008)


출처: J. Steven Landefeld, Eugene P. Seskin, and
Barbara M. Fraumeni. “Taking the Pulse of the Economy: Measuring GDP,” ^Journal of Economic Perspective^ 22, vol. 22, no. 2 (2008): 193-216.



※ 발췌 (excerpts): 

( ... ... )  So, what exactly does GDP measure? How is it constructed? Why do the GDP and other national accounts estimates sometimes present a different picture of the economy than other economic indicators? This article is intended to help answer these questions by providing a broad overview of the measurement techniques used in estimating GDP and the national accounts in the United States.

In the United States, the GDP and the national accounts estimates are fundamentally based on detailed economic census data and other information that is available only once every five years.  ( ... ... )


How the GDP Estimates Evolve Over the Estimation Cycle

Estimates of GDP begins with a "benchmark" (or "comprehensive revision") estimate, sometimes called a "best-level" estimate, which is usually produced once every five years with the reference year usually several years in the past. ( ... ... )


Final Demand or Expenditure Approach

Consumer Spending

For benchmark years, the finaal expenditures method used in the national accounts is based largely on business records. The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses a "commodity-flow" method to develop estimates of the "best levels" for all final sales to consumers of goods and services by product category. 
The commodity-flow method starts with total sales (or shipments) by producers of final goods and services. Then, using this estimate of total sales, the bureau adds (a) transportation costs, (b) wholesale and retail trade margins, (c) sales taxes, and (d) imports. It then deducts (e) changes in inventories, (f) exports, (g) sales to business (because these are intermediate goods), and (h) sales to government. The method produces consistent estimates of the value of final sales to consumers and their allocation across product categories. 
Table 3 summarizes the methods and data used in the final expenditures approach.

( ... ... )

To illustrate the relative magnitudes embodies in the calculation, in 1997, shipments by domestic apparel manufacturers were $66 billion. Imports added $56 billion, while transport, trade markups, and sales and other taxes added another $99 billion. Exported apparel and production that went to inventories subtracted $12 billion. Sales of apparel to government (mainly military uniforms) and to business(mainly service-worker uniforms) subtracted another $12 billion for a residual value of consumer spending on apparel of $197 billion. ( ... ... )

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