Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Brookings Institution

Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Brookings Institution:

"Greenhouse Gas Emissions, by Jeffrey A. Frankel , June 1999

Many difficulties plague the effort to implement the Kyoto Protocol negotiated in November 1997, and the other steps necessary to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases in an effort to check global climate change. Probably the most difficult chasm that needs to be bridged is between the United States and developing countries regarding the necessity of participation by the latter in any worldwide global climate change plan.

The Viewpoint from the North

... Developing country participation is crucial because it would permit relatively low-cost reductions in emissions in place of high-cost reductions in the industrialized countries. Cuts in greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries have the same global environmental benefit as reductions in industrialized countries, even though the reductions in developing countries are often much less costly. It thus makes sense to incorporate emissions reductions in developing countries into the international system. ...

A Fair Allocation

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Statistical analysis can make more precise the pattern of progressivity inherent in the targets already agreed upon for industrialized countries. Statistically, the existing Kyoto targets show this pattern of progressivity: each 1% increase in per capita income implies a 0.1% greater sacrifice, expressed as greater emissions reductions from BAU. In absolute terms, an increase in income is associated with an increase in the level of the emission target. But an increase in income is also known to imply an increase in the level expected if countries continue with business as usual, because emissions respond directly to economic output. When we ask richer countries to make greater sacrifices, we are suggesting that the increase in the assigned target should be less than the increase in BAU. By analogy, when an individual's pre-tax income increases, his after-tax income and the taxes he pays both go up.

The statistical approach certainly has limitations, and the results reported here are very preliminary. They are sensitive to decisions about the data used. Per capita income data can change depending on the year and exchange rate used to compare countries. Estimates of BAU emissions can vary too. But given that the question of any allocation of emissions targets seems inherently arbitrary, these results suggest a sensible approach. The proposal incorporates the principle of progressivity while avoiding impractical proposals by some developing country representatives that rich countries redistribute some of their wealth to poor ones.

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