2008년 10월 3일 금요일

SCIENCE AND NONSCIENCE CONCERNING HUMAN-CAUSED CLIMATE WARMING(1998)

자료: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~gth/web_page/article/aree_page1.html


J. D. Mahlman 
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/ NOAA, Princeton University

KEY WORDS: mathematical modelinggreenhouse warmingpublic controversyinfrared trappingatmospheric carbon dioxide 


ABSTRACT 

    The human-caused global warming problem is now the focus of intense international attention in many sectors of society. As we learn more about the science of the problem, the sense of controversy about the state of the science has actually increased, sharply so over the past decade. This essay highlights the fundamental aspects of the science underlying global warming. The vital roles of climate models and of climate data in sharpening scientific understanding are featured. Finally, the roles of controversy in the science and the sociology of this problem are addressed, and new insights are offered on the inevitability of future major conflicts and controversies as society begins to deal with the need to either reduce the use of fossil fuels considerably or adapt to substantial changes in Earth's climate. 


CONTENTS 

WHY THIS ESSAY? 

AN OVERVIEW OF THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING
Historical Setting
Some Fundamental Aspects of Greenhouse Warming Science

WHY CLIMATE MODELS ARE IMPERFECT AND WHY THEY ARE CRUCIAL ANYWAY

WHY CLIMATE DATA ARE IMPERFECT AND WHY THEY ARE CRUCIAL ANYWAY

ROLE OF CONTROVERSY
Context for Controversy
Genuine Scientific Uncertainty and Disagreement
The Misuse of Scientific Information

THE KEY ROLE OF "OFFICIAL" ASSESSMENTS

THE EVOLVING REAL GREENHOUSE WARMING CONTROVERSY

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, REFERENCES

This document is also available in PDF and PostScript form.

¤ The US Government has the right to retain a nonexclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright covering this paper.

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