Valuing the Future: Recent advances in social discounting,
David Pearce, Ben Groom, Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri,
WORLD ECONOMICS, Vol. 4, No. 2, April–June 2003
" ... One of the problem areas concerns timediscounting—the process whereby society places a lower value on a futuregain or loss than on the same gain or loss occurring now. The rationale fortime-discounting follows logically from the basic value judgement of welfareeconomics. If people’s preferences count and if people prefer now tothe future, those preferences must be integrated into social policy formulation.Time-discounting is thus universal in economic analysis, but itremains, as it always has, controversial.
...
The tyranny of discounting
It is comparatively easy to illustrate the moral dilemma in discounting. Letthe weight that is attached to a gain or loss in any future year, t, be wt.Discounting implies that wt 1. Moreover, discounting implies that theweight attached to, say, 50 years hence should be lower than the weightattached to 40 years hence. The discounting formula is then:
W(t) = 1 / t-squared of (1 + s)
Inspection of this equation shows that it is simply compound interestupside down. This is why the approach is often called ‘exponential discounting’.The weight wt is the discount factor and s is the discount rate. It isimportant to distinguish the two, as we will see. The discount factor isoften represented as a fraction, and the discount rate as a percentage. Forexample, if s = 4%, then the discount factor for 50 years hence would be:
W(50 years) = 1 / 50-squared of (1 + 0.04) = 0.14
In practical terms, this would mean that a gain or loss 50 years hencewould be valued at only 14% of its value now. Transposed to the kinds ofglobal environmental problems now faced by the world, the arithmeticillustrates the ‘tyranny’ of discounting. Keeping to the 4% discount rate,global warming damage one hundred years from now would be valued atjust one-fiftieth of the value that would be assigned to it if it occurredtoday. Imagine a cost of $1 billion one hundred years from now. The useof discounting means that this loss would appear as just £20 million in anyappraisal of the costs and benefits of global warming control. Indeed,cost–benefit models of global warming have been shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions about the discount rate. ...
Not discounting is discounting at 0%, and it isn’t good
The dilemma of discounting seems easily resolvable—simply don’t do it.But not discounting is formally equivalent to discounting at a particularnumber which happens to be zero per cent. In terms of the discountingequation, if s = 0, wt = 1 and everyone is ‘equal’ now and in the future. Thisoutcome would not matter much for the debate but for some very unnervingimplications of using zero discount rates. The first is transparently simple.Zero discounting means that we care as much for someone not justone hundred years from now as we do for someone now, but also someoneone thousand years from now, or even one million years from now. It seemsat least legitimate to ask: do we care about someone one million yearshence (we already know we do not), and should we care about someoneone million years from now? We suspect that the answer to the secondquestion would also be negative if there was a poll of people to determine it. ...
The notion of a social discount rate is usually presentedin the form of the following equation, known as a Ramsey equation(after Frank Ramsey, (Ramsey, 1928)):
s = r + m.g
What this says is that the social discount rate is equal to the sum of twofactors: r which is the ‘pure’ rate of time preference, reflecting people’simpatience; and the product of m (to be explained) and g, the growth rate offuture (per capita) consumption. m is known as the elasticity of the marginalutility of consumption, the percentage change in the well-being derivedfrom a percentage change in consumption (or income). The intuition behindm is that it expresses individuals’ aversion to fluctuations in their incomelevels. While there is a substantial debate about the value of m, recentreviews suggest that it takes a convenient value of about 1.0 (Cowell andGardiner, 1999). Notice that there is a simple intuition behind m.g. Peoplein the future will (almost certainly) be richer and hence the ‘utility’ theyattach to one more dollar of income is likely to be lower than that attached to the same dollar today. Effectively, then, discounting is justified simplyby the fact that future people will be better off than today’s people. ... (본문 중에서)
2008년 6월 30일 월요일
Valuing the Future: Recent advances in social discounting
Discounting the future
Discounting the future
Cedric Philibert,
International Energy Agency, Energy and Environment Division,
June 2003
Introduction
Discounting is probably one of the most disputed issues in ecological economics.Current human activities may cause immediate and long-term environmentaldamages. Discounting, the usual procedure to give a present value to financial flowsoccurring in the future, seems to give outrageously low values to future damages,and thus, to “play against” the environment and future generations. On the otherhand, low discount rates would imply more sacrifices for present generations,although future generations may be richer. And using various discount rates wouldlead to inefficiencies in selecting investment policies.There might be two different, but not unrelated, ways out of this dilemma. One mayuse decreasing discount rates, in particular to deal with uncertainty on futureeconomic growth. One may also, in light of this discussion, assign non substitutable,non reproducible environmental assets a value growing over time at a pace close tothe discount rate itself.The first section introduces discounting and its rationale. The second challenges theview that discounting might be considered, by itself, “unfair” to future generations.The third section shows that the rate of return on investment cannot be higher thanthe growth rate of the economy for ever. The fourth section reviews how uncertaintyon future economic growth rates affects discount rates. The fifth section discussesthe “reverse side” of the discounting issue – that of valuing environmental amenitiesand assets, as neither reproducible nor substitutable assets. The concluding sectionsummarises and links the various arguments, and then draws a few more generallessons from this analysis.
Social Time Preference
Social Time Preference Giancarlo Marini and Pasquale Scaramozzino
Revised, September 1999
Journal of Population Economics
Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review
Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review
SHANE FREDERICK, GEORGE LOEWENSTEIN, and TED O’DONOGHUE
Journal of Economic Literature, June 2002.
똑같은 저자들의 2001년 10월 31일자 소론이다: Time Discounting: A Critical Review
public good
public good: Definition and Much More from Answers.com:
" ...
Paul A. Samuelson is usually credited as the first economist to develop the theory of public goods. In his classic 1954 paper The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure[2] he defined a public good, or as he called it in the paper a 'collective consumption good', as follows:
...[goods] which all enjoy in common in the sense that each individual's consumption of such a good leads to no subtractions from any other individual's consumption of that good...
This is the property that has become known as Non-rivalness. In addition a pure public good exhibits a second property called Non-excludability: that is, it is impossible to exclude any individuals from consuming the good.
The opposite of a public good is a private good, which does not possess these properties. A loaf of bread, for example, is a private good: its owner can exclude others from using it, and once it has been consumed, it cannot be used again.
A good which is rival but non-excludable is sometimes called a common pool resource(공유재). Such goods raise similar issues to public goods: the mirror to the public goods problem for this case is sometimes called the tragedy of the commons. For example, it is so difficult to police deep sea fishing that the world's fish stocks can be seen as a non-excludable resource, but one which is finite and diminishing.
...
As well as public goods there can be public bads that have negative externality effects instead of positive ones. For example, pollution or political corruption may be bads that show some of the same non-excludability and non-rivalness properties."
Gulf Stream Shutdown - Abrupt Climate Change
Gulf Stream Shutdown (It's when the new European summer looks a lot like the old European winter)
"Websites
Abrupt Climate Change
From the Ocean and Climate Change Institute of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. This is by far the best and most comprehensive site on the Gulf Stream Shutdown and abrupt climate change
- Are We on the Brink of a New 'Little Ice Age'?
- Ocean Monitoring Systems
- Should We Be Worried?
Current Velocities of the Gulf Stream
Department of Earth Observation and Space Systems (DEOS) - Technical University Delft
Quickwatch
Monitoring indicators of abrupt climate change, including the Gulf Stream flow - From UnknownCountry.com
..."
cf. Gulf Stream (멕시코만류): 북대서양의 북아메리카 연안을 북상하는 난류. 너비 37∼74㎞, 수심 1000∼1500m, 최고유속(流速)은 4∼5㎞이다. 플로리다해류가 해터라스곶 앞바다에서 북아메리카 연안을 벗어나 그랜드뱅크 앞바다에서 북대서양해류로 이어지는 부분을 말한다. 그 기원이 멕시코만에 있다고 하여 멕시코만류라 부르게 된 것으로, 보통 만류라고도 한다. 넓은 뜻으로는 플로리다·앤틸·북대서양해류의 총칭으로 쓰이며, 이 경우에는 걸프스트림시스템(Gulf Stream System)이라고 하는 수가 많다. 북대서양에 있는 시계바늘방향 흐름의 해양대순환의 일부인 북적도해류가 북상하여 플로리다해류가 되고 멕시코만류가 된다. (출처: 야후 백과사전).
Alarm over dramatic weakening of Gulf Stream | Environment | The Guardian
Alarm over dramatic weakening of Gulf Stream Environment The Guardian:
"Alarm over dramatic weakening of Gulf Stream
Interactive guide to the Gulf Stream
Ian Sample, science correspondent
The Guardian, Thursday December 1, 2005
Article history
The powerful ocean current that bathes Britain and northern Europe in warm waters from the tropics has weakened dramatically in recent years, a consequence of global warming that could trigger more severe winters and cooler summers across the region, scientists warn today.
Researchers on a scientific expedition in the Atlantic Ocean measured the strength of the current between Africa and the east coast of America and found that the circulation has slowed by 30% since a previous expedition 12 years ago.
The current, which drives the Gulf Stream, delivers the equivalent of 1m power stations-worth of energy to northern Europe, propping up temperatures by 10C in some regions. The researchers found that the circulation has weakened by 6m tonnes of water a second. Previous expeditions to check the current flow in 1957, 1981 and 1992 found only minor changes in its strength, although a slowing was picked up in a further expedition in 1998. The decline prompted the scientists to set up a £4.8m network of moored instruments in the Atlantic to monitor changes in the current continuously..."
Will global warming trigger a new ice age? | Environment | The Guardian
Will global warming trigger a new ice age? Environment The Guardian:
"Will global warming trigger a new ice age?
If climate change disrupts ocean currents, things could get very chilly round here, reports Bill McGuire
Bill McGuire The Guardian, Thursday November 13, 2003
Article history
If you can remember back to the bitter winters of the late 1970s and early 80s you might also recall that there was much discussion in scientific circles at the time about whether or not the freezing winter conditions were a portent of a new ice age.
Over the past couple of decades such warnings have been drowned out by the great global warming debate and by consideration of how society might cope in future with a sweltering planet rather than an icebound one. Seemingly, the fact that we are still within an interglacial period, during which the ice has largely retreated to its polar fastnesses, has been forgotten - and replaced with the commonly-held view that one good thing you can say about global warming is that it will at least stave off the return of the glaciers.
Is this really true, or could the rapidly accelerating warming that we are experiencing actually hasten the onset of a new ice age? A growing body of evidence suggests that, at least for the UK and western Europe, there is a serious risk of this happening - and soon.
The problem lies with the ocean current known as the Gulf Stream(멕시코만류), which bathes the UK and north-west Europe in warm water carried northwards from the Caribbean. It is the Gulf Stream, and associated currents, that allow strawberries to thrive along the Norwegian coast, while at comparable latitudes in Greenland glaciers wind their way right down to sea level. The same currents permit palms to flourish in Cornwall and the Hebrides, whereas across the ocean in Labrador, even temperate vegetation struggles to survive. Without the Gulf Stream, temperatures in the UK and north-west Europe would be five degrees centigrade or so cooler, with bitter winters at least as fierce as those of the so-called Little Ice Age in the 17th to 19th centuries. ..."
2008년 6월 29일 일요일
biodegradable waste
biodegradable waste: Information and Much More from Answers.com:
"...
Biodegradable waste is an important substance due to its links with global warming. When it is disposed of in landfills, it breaks down under uncontrolled anaerobic conditions. This produces landfill gas which, if not harnessed, escapes into the atmosphere. Landfill gas contains methane, a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide..
The European Union Landfill Directive puts key requirements on member states for the management of biodegradable waste in order to stop global warming.
..."
- organic wastes: 유기 폐기물.
- biodegradable wastes: 생분해성 폐기물
- biodegradable plastic: 생분해성 플라스틱
visible spectrum
visible spectrum: Definition and Much More from Answers.com:
1. "Medical Dictionary: visible spectrum
n.
The part of the electromagnetic spectrum visible to the human eye, extending from extreme red, 760.6 nanometers, to extreme violet, 393.4 nanometers." "가시 스펙트럼", "가시광선 스펙트럼(?)"
2. "Wikipedia: visible spectrum
The visible spectrum (or sometimes optical spectrum) is the portion of the electromagnetic spectrum that is visible to (can be detected by) the human eye. Electromagnetic radiation in this range of wavelengths is called visible light or simply light. A typical human eye will respond to wavelengths in air from 380 to 780 nm. The corresponding wavelengths in water and other media are reduced by a factor equal to the refractive index. In terms of frequency, this corresponds to a band in the vicinity of 450-750 terahertz. A light-adapted eye generally has its maximum sensitivity at around 555 nm, in the green region of the optical spectrum (see: luminosity function). The spectrum does not, however, contain all the colors that the human eyes and brain can distinguish. Brown, pink, and magenta are absent, for example, because they need a mix of multiple wavelengths, preferably shades of red.
..."
3. CF. visible rays(가시광선), visible light,
Visible light means "Light in the visible spectrum."
4. CF. 보석 판별에 적당한 조명: "
빛에 대해서 말할 때, 일반적으로 마음에 닿는 것은 우리가 실제로 볼 수 있는 가시광선(可視光線, visible light)이다. 하지만 소수 사람들만이 아주 복잡한 여러 가지의 과학적 원리들을 포함하여 빛에 대해서 명확히 이해하고 있다. 당신이 알고 있어야 하는 것만 가능한 한 단순하게 설명하려고 노력할 것이다.이해하고 있어야 할 첫 번째는 가시광선(可視光線, visible light)과 비가시광선(非可視光線, invisible light)이 있다는 것이다. 빛은 파(波, wave)로 움직이며 파장(파의 길이)에 의해서 우리가 볼 수 있는지 아닌지가 결정된다. 이것은 또한 우리가 빛을 볼 때 빛이 어떤 색깔인지를 결정한다.우리가 볼 수 있는 가장 긴 파장은 적(red)을 만든다; 가장 짧은 것은 보라(violet)을 만든다. 가시광선들은 종종 빛의 가시 스펙트럼(visible spectrum of light)이라고 불리며, (우리의 자연 그대로의 눈으로 볼 수 있는 가장 긴 파장으로부터 가장 짧은 순으로) 적, 주황(orange), 황(yellow), 녹(green), 청(blue), 남(indigo)와 보라를 포함하고 있다.
백색광과 단색광 (White Light and Monochromatic Light)
가시 스펙트럼의 모든 색들을 함께 혼합하면, 백색광(白色光)이 된다. 우리는 대부분의 보석판별기구들에 백색광을 이용한다.그러나, 단색광(單色光)을 이용할 때가 종종 있다. 단색광은 스펙트럼의 색들 중에서 단 하나로 된 빛(light)이다. 단색광에서는, 가시 스펙트럼의 7개 색들 중에서의 6 개가 여과되어 단 하나의 색만이 남는다. 황색의 단색광은 일반적으로 굴절계(refractometer)에 이용된다. GIA에서 판매하고 있는 것들과 같은 많은 다용도 램프들이 백색광 또는 황색광(황 단색광, yellow monochromic light) 모두를 만든다. 그러나, 만약에 황색광을 가지고 있지 않다면, 여과기로 여러 겹의 황색 셀러페인(cellophane)(사탕을 감싸는 데에 사용되는 것과 같은)을 광원에 단순히 덮으므로써 좋은 대체수단을 만들 수 있다." (본문 중에서)
trace gas
trace gas: Definition and Much More from Answers.com:
"Wikipedia: trace gas
The term trace gas refers to a gas or gases which make up less than 1% of the earth's atmosphere, which encompasses all occurring gasses except nitrogen and oxygen. Several are chemically reactive factors of air quality at a regional level, and others are important greenhouse gases.[1] Most are anthropogenic, but plants and microorganisms are important sources in remote areas.[2][3] The most common trace gas is argon and trace compounds include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides, and ozone."
2008년 6월 27일 금요일
electromagnetic spectrum: Definition and Much More from Answers.com
electromagnetic spectrum: Definition and Much More from Answers.com:
"Science of Everyday Things: Electromagnetic Spectrum (전자기 스펙트럼)
Concept
One of the most amazing aspects of physics is the electromagnetic spectrum—radio waves, microwaves, infrared light, visible light, ultraviolet light, x rays, and gamma rays—as well as the relationship between the spectrum and electromagnetic force. The applications of the electromagnetic spectrum in daily life begin the moment a person wakes up in the morning and 'sees the light.' Yet visible light, the only familiar part of the spectrum prior to the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, is also its narrowest region. Since the beginning of the twentieth century, uses for other bands in the electromagnetic spectrum have proliferated. At the low-frequency end are radio, short-wave radio, and television signals, as well as the microwaves used in cooking. Higher-frequency waves, all of which can be generally described as light, provide the means for looking deep into the universe—and deep into the human body.
..."
적외선
적외선 (赤外線 infrared rays)
요약 : 가시광선에 이어지는 파장범위가 0.75μ∼1㎜ 정도인 전자기파.
설명 : 가시광선에 이어지는 파장범위가 0.75μ∼1㎜ 정도인 전자기파. 빛의 스펙트럼에서는 적색 부분의 바깥쪽에 해당하므로 이 이름이 붙여졌다. 1800년에 영국의 F.W. 허셜이 태양스펙트럼의 적색 부분보다 장파장 쪽에 열효과가 큰 부분이 있음을 최초로 발견했다. 파장 수㎛ 이하를 근적외선, 파장 25㎛ 이상을 원적외선, 그 사이를 중간적외선이라 한다. 또, 파장 25㎛, 30㎛ 또는 50㎛를 경계로 하여 그 이상을 원적외선, 이하를 근적외선이라고 총칭하는 경우도 있다. 다만 이러한 경계가 명확한 것은 아니다. 특히 전자회로에서 발생하는 간섭성이 좋은 전자기파는 파장이 짧아도 서브밀리미터파 등의 전파용어로 불린다. 적외선은 그 열작용으로 특징지어지는 전자기파로, 물질이 넓은뜻의 근적외선을 흡수하면 물질내의 열운동이 들뜨게 되어 온도가 상승한다. 따라서 이 부분을 열선(熱線；heat ray)이라고도 한다.
적외선 스펙트럼: 분자진동이나 결정의 격자진동의 스펙트럼은 근적외선에서 중간적외선 영역에 나타나고, 가벼운 분자의 회전스펙트럼은 원적외선 영역에 나타난다. 원자·분자의 높은 전자 들뜬 상태간의 전이파장도 적외선 영역에 있다. 또 몇몇 종류의 반도체의 밴드간 전이, 불순물 준위간 전이도 근적외선에서 원적외선 영역에 걸쳐 나타난다. 이들은 내부 광전효과로서 적외선에 대한 검지(檢知)에 이용된다.
적외선 영역의 광학재료: 수정은 파장 3㎛ 정도까지, 플루오르화리튬(LiF)·플루오르화칼슘(CaF)은 5∼6㎛까지, 염화나트륨(NaCl)은 15㎛까지, 브롬화칼륨(KBr)은 25㎛까지의 빛에 대해 양호한 투과성을 나타낸다. 탈륨의 화합물로 이루어지는 TlBr-TlI, TlBr-TlCl 등은 투과율이 50％ 이하로 작지만, 근적외선에서 수십㎛의 원적외선에 걸쳐 평탄한 투과특성을 나타낸다. 분광기용 분산계로 이들 물질을 재료로 한 프리즘이 사용되므로 파장 25㎛ 정도까지를 프리즘적외선 영역이라고 하는 경우가 있다. 불순물농도가 작은 규소(Si)나 게르마늄(Ge)도 중간적외선까지 비교적 좋은 투과특성을 나타낸다. 원적외선 영역에 대해서는 폴리에틸렌·폴리스티렌·테플론·파라핀 등이 투과율이 좋은 재료이다. 대체로 금속은 적외선 영역에서 높은 반사율을 가지므로 금·은·백금·알루미늄 등의 금속 또는 그 증착면(蒸着面)은 적외선 영역에서의 거울이나 반사형 필터의 재료로 쓰인다.
발생원: 지금까지 적외선 영역은 고온백열체(高溫白熱體)가 유일한 광원이었다. 중간적외선 영역의 대표적인 광원은 글로버와 네른스트글로어이다. 글로버는 가는 막대 모양의 탄화규소에 10A 정도의 전류를 흐르게 하여 1300K 정도로 가열한 것이고, 네른스트글로어는 산화지르코늄(ZrO)을 주성분으로 한 막대에 1A 정도의 전류를 흐르게 하여 1700K 정도로 백열시킨 것이다. 근적외선 영역에는 더욱 고온을 얻기 위해 텅스텐 백열전구, 지르코늄이나 탄소의 아크등(燈)이 쓰이고, 원적외선 영역에는 파장 100㎛ 이상에서 비교적 강하게 발광하는 고압수은등 등이 쓰인다. 빛과 전파의 골짜기라고 일컬어지는 적외선 영역에도 레이저의 개발로 인해 강한 간섭광원이 많이 생기게 되었다. 근적외선 영역에는 3가의 네오디뮴이온(Nd)의 파장 1.06㎛의 전자전이가 연속적으로도, 펄스적으로도 발진(發振)한다. 특히 유리를 모체로 한 네오디뮴 레이저로는 레이저의 부피를 크게 할 수 있어서 큰 출력을 얻을 수 있다. 중간적외선 영역에는 5㎛대(帶)의 일산화탄소 레이저, 10㎛대의 탄산가스나 일산화이질소 레이저의 실용적 가치가 높다. 이것들은 분자의 진동회전전이가 발진하므로 서로 접근한 수십 내지 수백 가닥의 레이저선을 얻을 수 있다. 대형 레이저로는 연속적으로 수십W에서 수백W, 고압기체 레이저로는 수㎿의 순간펄스출력을 얻을 수 있다. 그것들은 분광학이나 핵융합의 연구뿐 아니라 천의 재단이나 철판의 가공 같은 공업적 용도에도 쓰인다. 원적외선 영역은 수증기나 시안화수소 등의 방전으로 파장 수십㎛부터 수백㎛의 범위에서 수십 가닥의 발진선(發振線)을 얻고 있다. 이것들은 분광분석용 광원으로 이용된다. 또 위에서 말한 탄산가스 레이저로 암모니아·메틸알코올·플루오르화메틸 등 100종류 가까운 분자를 들뜨게 하여 원적외선 회전전이로 발진시키는 이른바 광들뜸형 원적외선레이저는 천수백 가닥의 발진선을 가진다. 그러나 그 대부분은 출력이 별로 크지 않으므로 다른 목적에 사용하기 위해서는 개선의 여지가 있다.
검출기: 열기전력을 검지하는 열전기쌍, 또는 그것을 직렬로 연결한 열전기더미, 금속의 전기저항의 온도변화를 검출하는 볼로미터, 반도체의 저항값의 온도변화를 검출하는 서미스터 등은 모두 적외선의 열작용을 이용한 간접적 검출기이다. 기체의 열팽창으로 그 용기의 일부를 형성하고 있는 박막이 변형되는 것을 광학적으로 고감도의 검출을 하는 골레이셀(Golay cell)도 한동안 많이 사용되었다. 이들 검출기에는 원리적으로는 파장의존성이 없으나 검출소자를 나누기 위한 창재(窓材) 등에 의한 파장선택성이 나타난다. 일반적으로 열적 검출기는 응답속도가 느리고 감도도 그다지 높지 않다. 반도체의 내부 광전효과를 이용하는 검출기는 근적외선 영역에서는 이미 이용되고 있지만, 최근 원적외선 영역에서도 좋은 재료가 개발되고 있다. 적외선 조사(照射)에 의해 전도대의 운반체 농도가 증가하고 전기저항이 감소하는 것을 검지하는 광전도형과, 운반체가 반도체내에서 분극하여 전위차가 생기는 것을 검지하는 광기전력형이 있는데, 뒤의 것이 전자에 비해 다소 응답속도가 빠르다. 반도체를 이용한 검출기는 반도체의 에너지준위 구조를 반영하여 감도가 있는 파장대역이 좁은 것이 결점이다. 장파장 영역에는 접근한 에너지준위를 사용하므로 고체 자신이 지니는 열에너지로 캐리어가 쉽게 들뜬 상태가 된다. 이 때문에 중간적외선 영역에서는 액체질소로, 원적외선 영역에서는 액체헬륨으로 검출소자를 냉각시켜 이용하지 않으면 안된다. 황화카드뮴(CdS；0.3~1.6㎛), 황화납(PbS；0.3~3.2㎛), 셀렌화납(PbSe；77K, 1.5~8㎛), 게르마늄-금(77K, ~10㎛), 카드뮴-수은-텔루르(77K, ~14㎛), 게르마늄-구리(4K, ~27㎛), 게르마늄-인듐(1.5K, ~500㎛) 등이 대표적인 반도체 검출기이다(괄호 안의 숫자는 사용온도와 사용파장 영역을 나타낸다).
응용: 마이크로파 분광과 함께 적외선 분광법은 많은 분자의 기하학적 구조와 기준진동의 성질을 밝혀 왔다. 그 성과는 가스나 고체의 적외선 분광분석 등 공업적으로도 널리 응용되고 있다. 전파천문학·X선천문학과 함께 최근에는 우주를 조사하는 수단으로 적외선을 이용하는 적외선천문학도 주목되고 있다. 실용적 응용으로서는 먼 거리를 촬영하는 적외선사진, 어두운 곳에서도 물체가 보이는 야간투시경, 무접촉의 고온을 재는 고온계, 미사일 등의 추적장치, 적외선 레이더, 반도체 레이저를 이용한 통신, 온도기록계 등을 들 수 있다. (출처: 야후 백과사전)
2008년 6월 26일 목요일
river blindness: Definition
river blindness: Definition and Much More from Answers.com: 사상충(filaria)증
"Human disease caused by a filarial worm(사상충) native to Africa but also found in parts of tropical America and transmitted by several blackflies. It is so called because the flies that transmit the disease breed on rivers and mostly affect riverine populations. Blindness is caused by dead microfilariae(microfilaria: 혈액 안에 기생하는 사상충filaria의 유충) — the larvae that can be produced for some 15~ 18 years by adult worms — inside the eye. River blindness is common in savannah areas of Africa and in Guatemala and Mexico. In 1987 the World Health Organization began to distribute the drug ivermectin (originally developed for use against livestock parasites), which eliminates the microfilariae, though it does not kill the adult parasite. ..."
Melting glaciers will trigger food shortages - energy-fuels - 20 March 2008 - New Scientist Environment
Melting glaciers will trigger food shortages - energy-fuels - 20 March 2008 - New Scientist Environment:
"Melting glaciers will trigger food shortages
18:01 20 March 2008 , NewScientist.com news service , Debora MacKenzie
The irrigation water vital for the grain crops that feed China and India is at risk of drying up, as global warming melts the glaciers that feed Asia's biggest rivers.
'The world has never faced such a predictably massive threat to food production as that posed by the melting mountain glaciers of Asia,' says Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute.
The Ganges, Yellow and Yangtze Rivers in India and China are fed by rains during the monsoon season, but during the dry season they depend heavily on meltwater from glaciers in the Himalayas. The Gangotri Glacier in the Himalayas alone supplies 70% of the flow of the Ganges in the dry season.
The dry season is precisely when water is needed most to irrigate the rice and wheat crops on which hundreds of millions of people depend for their staple calories. But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported last year that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035. According to Brown, Chinese glaciologists now estimate that two-thirds of the glaciers on the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau could be gone by 2060.
Severely diminished meltwater could make the flow of the three great rivers seasonal, warns Brown, who has long documented the effects of environmental damage on food production. China and India together produce more than half the world's wheat and rice, and the three river basins supply much of it, he says. The Yangtze irrigates half of China's annual rice harvest. ..."
물의 순환과 수문학(기초 수문학Basic Hydrology 제1장)
물의 순환과 수문학(기초 수문학Basic Hydrology 제1장)
□ 물의 순환:
증발(evaporation)→응축(condensation)→이송(transport)→강수(precipitation)→유출(run-off) 또는 침투(infiltration)→증발(evaporation)
1) 강수(Precipitation)
① 강수의 정의- 구름이 응축(Condensation)되어 지상으로 떨어지는 모든 형태의 수분
② 강수의 유형
• 강우 : 비(rain), 부슬비(drizzle) ⇒ 강수의 97%를 차지
• 강설 : 눈(snow)
• 기타 : 우박(hail), 이슬(dew), 서리(frost) 등
2) 증발산(Evapotranspiration)
① 증발산의 정의- 액체 또는 고체 상태의 물이 열에너지를 얻어 기체상태로 변화하는 과정
② 증발산의 유형
• 지면 증발, 수면 증발 ⇒ 증발(Evaporation)
• 엽면 증발 ⇒ 증산(Transpiration)
③ 증산의 정의- 증발의 한 형태로 물분자가 식물의 엽면을 통해 대기 중으로 중으로 방출되는 현상⇒ 전체 증발량의 약 10% 차지 (해수 80%, 담수 10%)
3) 침투(Infiltration)와 침루(Percolation)
① 침투의 정의- 물이 지표를 통해 토양 속으로 스며드는 현상
② 침루의 정의- 물이 중력의 영향으로 지하까지 흘러서 도달하는 현상
4) 유출(Runoff)
① 유출의 정의- 유역에서 집수 또는 저류된 물이 하천을 따라 흘러나오는과정
② 유출의 유형
• 지표 유출(Surface Runoff)
• 중간 유출(Interflow) 또는 지표하 유출(Subsurface Runoff)
• 지하수 유출(Groundwater Runoff)
2008년 6월 25일 수요일
Urban Dictionary: balls of steel
1. Urban Dictionary: balls of steel:
"balls of steel" means Courageous, manly."
2. balls of steel: Wikipedia
Balls of Steel: Information and Much More from Answers.com
Balls of Steel: Information and Much More from Answers.com:
"Balls of Steel is a pinball computer game developed by Wildfire Studios and published by Pinball Wizards (a division of Apogee Software, better known as 3D Realms), released on December 12, 1997. It is the only title to be released under the Pinball Wizards label. There were reportedly a few complaints over the game's box art, which showed a female hand holding a large pair of pinballs in a manner suggesting testicles, above the phrase, 'Come play with our balls.'"
Cargill Inc.
Cargill: Information and Much More from Answers.com:
"Type: Private Company
Address: P.O. Box 9300, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55440-9300, U.S.A.
Telephone: (612) 742-7575
Fax: (612) 742-7899
Employees: 70,500
Sales: $47.1 billion
Incorporated: 1930
SIC: 5153 Grain & Field Beans; 4424 Deep Sea Domestic Transportation of Freight; 6221 Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers; 2041 Flour & Other Grain Mill Products
Cargill Inc. is the largest private corporation in the United States. Long known as a merchant of commodities, by the early 1990s Cargill had become one of the largest diversified services companies in the country. In addition to merchandising grains and oilseeds, Cargill operates as a transporter of commodities; a supplier of feed, seed, fertilizer, and other products to agricultural producers; a processor of food ingredients (such as corn syrup and flour) and of brand name products (such as meat and poultry products); an industrial producer of steel, salt, and other products; and a financial and technical services provider. Its diversified operations became increasingly important when the trade in commodities suffered a prolonged downturn beginning in 1980."
Dungeons & Dragons
"...
Dungeons & Dragons is a structured yet open-ended role-playing game. It is normally played indoors with the participants seated around a table-top. Typically, each player controls only a single character.[14] As a group, these player characters (PCs) are often described as a ‘party’ of adventurers, with each often having his or her own areas of specialized talents.[15] During the course of play, each player directs the actions of his or her character and its interactions with the other characters in the game.[16][17] A game often continues over a series of meetings to complete a single adventure, and longer into a series of related gaming adventures, called a ‘campaign’.
... "
Dungeon Master
"Dungeon Master is widely considered to be the first 3D realtime action computer role-playing game, published in 1987 for the Atari ST by FTL Games. It went on to become the ST's best selling product of all time, reaching an astounding market penetration of more than 50% of the Atari STs ever sold."
2008년 6월 24일 화요일
호야, "유리 디스크": emars - 비지니스 사례분석 전문가
emars - 비지니스 사례분석 전문가:
".. 유리 디스크는 기존의 자기판 방식 하드 디스크보다 충격에 매우 강한 하드 디스크이다. 따라서 하드 디스크를 들고 다녀야 하는 분야에서 많이 사용되고 있다. 단적인 예로, 도시바 노트북의 모든 하드 디스크는 유리 디스크로 만들어진다. ..." (해당 웹사이트 중에서)
glass disk
후지쯔 하드총판 주영통신: "glass disk"
"5.Glass Disk:
기존 Aluminum Disk 대비 신뢰성 및 기록밀도 향상을 위하여 Glass Disk 를 채용하는추세입니다. 우선 Disk 표면의 균일성(uniformaty)이 기존 대비 약 20% 향상되어 데이터의 신뢰도가 증가되며, Disk 표면의 물리적 Error가 감소합니다. 또한 충격에 강하여 HDD의 신뢰도를 확보하였습니다. 이와 같이 Disk 신뢰도 향상으로 인해 Head의 Flying Height를 낮추어 기록밀도 향상이 가능해집니다."
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone: Information and Much More from Answers.com:
"Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone (published in the United States as Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone) is the first novel in the Harry Potter series written by J. K. Rowling and featuring the fictional character Harry Potter, a young wizard. It was published 30 June 1997 by Bloomsbury in London, and has also been made into a feature-length film of the same name. This is also the most popular of the books in terms of number sold — an estimated 107 million copies worldwide. As of August 2007, the book is number nine on the best selling book list of all time, and is the second best-selling non-religious, non-political work of fiction of all time, beaten only by Don Quixote by Cervantes. ..."
"philosophers' stone": Occultism & Parapsychology Encyclopedia
philosophers' stone: Definition and Much More from Answers.com:
"Occultism & Parapsychology Encyclopedia: Philosophers' Stone
A legendary substance which enabled adepts in alchemy to compass the transmutation of metals. Alchemists believed that one definite substance was essential to the success of the trans-mutation operation. By the application or admixture of this substance, often called the 'Powder of Projection,' any metal might be transmuted into gold or silver.
Zosimus, who lived at the beginning of the fifth century, was one of the first to allude to the philosophers' stone. He said that it was a powder or liquor formed of diverse metals, fused under a favorable astrological condition. The stone was supposed to contain the secrets not only of transmutation, but of health and life, for through it the elixir of life could be distilled.
The author of a Treatise on Philosophical and Hermetic Chemistry, published in Paris in 1725, stated: 'Modern philosophers have extracted from the interior of mercury a fiery spirit, mineral, vegetable and multiplicative, in a humid concavity in which is found the primitive mercury or the universal quintessence. In the midst of this spirit resides the spiritual fluid…."
2008년 6월 23일 월요일
The Apprentice, Donald Trump
The Apprentice: Information and Much More from Answers.com: "The Apprentice is a television franchise that originated in 2004 in the United States. As originally conceived, the show depicted 16 contestants from around the country with various backgrounds competing in an elimination-style competition to become an apprentice to Donald Trump. They would have the opportunity to work for him as the president of one of his companies for at least one year with an annual salary of $250,000. The Apprentice was developed by Mark Burnett, who successfully brought Survivor to the US. Since its premiere, the show has spawned many licensed international versions as well as several imitations. The show popularized the catch phrase, 'You're Fired!'
Original series
Main article: The Apprentice (US TV Series)"
..."
도날드 트럼프라는 자가 큰돈을 벌었다 큰돈을 까먹으면서, 세상을 시끄럽게도 하고 난봉도 부렸던 자로 들었었는데, 어떻게 하면 세상의 이목을 끌까하고 이런 일도 했었구나.
2008년 6월 22일 일요일
국내은행의 모형리스크(Model Risk)관리방안
국내은행의 모형리스크(Model Risk)관리방안
(96 금융리스크리뷰 ․ 2006년 겨울)
박 병 수**
은행은 리스크관리를 강화하기 위하여 신용평가모형, 파생상품 가격결정모형, 시장 및 금리리스크 측정 모형 등 각종 계량모형을 개발하여 활용하고 있다. 그러나 리스크관리 및 가격결정 등을 위하여 계량모형을 사용함으로써 업무의 효율화를 기할 수 있는 장점도 있으나모형자체의 결함 또는 잘못된 사용 등의 경우에는 의사결정에 오류 및 재무적 손실을 초래할 가능성도 있다. Metallgesellschaft, UBS, Tokyo/Mitsubishi 등은 가격결정모형의 잘못된적용 등 모형리스크(model risk)의 관리 실패로 많은 손실을 입었다.국내은행들은 모형리스크 관리를 위한 정책 및 관련 규정이 마련되어 있지 않은 데다, 관련 모형의 적합성 검증 절차를 수립하지 않고 있다. 이에 본고에서는 국내은행이 모형리스크를 효율적으로 관리하기 위한 모형 감독(oversight), 통제, 적합성 검증 등에 대한 관리방안을 제시하였다.
정보와 신념, 그리고 경제적 합리성... 행태경제학
"..
T. Schelling과 G. Akerlof 등의 경제학자들의 주도 아래 많은 경제학자들이 새로운 접근방법의 장점을 받아들이기 시작하였고, 경제학자들이꼭 알아야 할 핵심 심리학 원리들을 D. Kahneman과 A. Tversky와 같은 심리학자들 그리고 R. Thaler와 같은 경제학자들이 자세히 소개하기 시작하였다. 이로부터 소위 행태경제학(behavioral economics)이 시작되었다... " (본문 중에서)
http://plaza1.snu.ac.kr/~inmunyun/human/0553/03.pdf
서울대 환경대학원 이정전 저.
2008년 6월 20일 금요일
NYMEX.com: Heating Oil (난방유 선물계약 사양)
NYMEX.com: Heating Oil
- 단위 계약: 42,000 gallon
- 호가 기준: dollar per gallon
- 최소 호가 단위: 0.0001 dollar per gallon(=0.01 cent per gallon) .
즉, 계약 당 최소 호가 단위로 환산하면, 42,000 gallon×0.0001 dollar per gallon = 4.2 dollar.
Index Fundamentalism Revisited
Index Fundamentalism Revisited
Kenneth S. Reinker and Edward Tower
May 3, 2004
the Journal of Portfolio Management, Summer 2004
Abstract:
Is there any justification for investing in managed mutual funds, or are managed funds forsuckers, as indexing advocates argue? We answer this question by looking at a long timespan of real fund returns (27 years) for one specific company (Vanguard) that is notablefor its low fees on managed funds. By creating synthetic portfolios—portfolios based onthe assets of Vanguard’s mutual funds—we find that whether index funds or managedfunds are the superior buy depends on the time span in question, but that managed fundsalmost always have a lower standard deviation of return than index funds.
착각과 설득, 선수와 하수, 三人行 必有我師
예전에는 내가 동의하는 것(즉 설득 당하는 것)인지 착각을 일으키는 것인지, 전혀 구분을 못했던 때가 있었다. 꽤나 오래 그렇게 살았다. 그래서 지금까지 엉뚱한 길을 여러 군데 헤매고 왔을 것이다. 그러는 동안 많이 속았다(어쩌면 나도 그렇게 남들을 속였을 것이다).
그때부터 유난히 표정을 잘 관리하면서, 착각을 유발해 설득을 하려는 인간들이 싫어졌다. 그 그룹 중에도 일처리와 각종 관리가 아주 깔끔하고 보여줄 것도 다 보여주는 선수급들이 있다. 이들은 보통 머리도 좋고 배포도 좋다. 한편, 보여줄 것도 제대로 보여주지 못하는 부실한 관리 실력에, 말과 표정만 잘 관리하는 하수들도 있다. 전자는 머리가 좋은데 안 좋은 척을 하는 반면, 후자는 머리는 안 좋은데 남들에게 좋은 척을 한다. 사실 나는 이런 하수의 부류들에게도 당하고 살았었다. 그때 귀신이 더 편하다는 말에 공감이 갔다. 그들 중 내가 만난 몇몇은 인간처럼 잔머리를 굴리지 않는다는 점을 봤기 때문이다.
그래서 그런 골치 아픈 유형의 사람이 지겹다 못해 무섭다는 생각을 몇 년 전에 했었다. 희안한 것은 그러던 중 관상을 보는 눈이 늘다 보니, 이런 인간 관계에서 상당히 유효한 매개변수로 훌륭하게 쓰일 수 있다는 점이다. 관상은 천하고 욕심(혹은 꾀) 많은 놈인데, 큰 이상이나 봉사, 여러 사람들의 공익을 이야기하듯 내세우는(아니면 은근히 분위기를 까는) 경우는 거의 백발백중 사기꾼이다.
어쨌든 그런 부류라도 하나하나 보다 보면, "三人行 必有我師"라는 말에 무릎을 치지 않을 수 없다. 어쨌든 선생이니, 어찌 인연이 아니랴.
얼마전에는 서초동 법원 앞을 지나다 약간 정신이 돈 것도 같고, 아닌 것도 같은 아주머니가 내게 욕설을 해댔다. 세상에 수염 기르는 사람 처음 봤나? 노홍철도 있는 마당에, 나보러 미친 놈이란다. 그래서 고래고래 소리를 지르면서 별의 별 욕을 다 해줬다.
그리고 돌아서 길을 걷는데 이게 웬 일인가? 아니, 작업 마감 중에 쌓인 스트레스가 다 풀린 것이다. 그 미친 아주머니도 스트레스 푸는 방법을 가르쳐준 "三人行 必有我師"의 한 사례였다!
2008년 6월 19일 목요일
The Equity Curve Technique - Trading Stocks - Trading Stocks Guide
The Equity Curve Technique - Trading Stocks - Trading Stocks Guide: "To create a 30-day rolling equity curve, simply read your net equity off of your broker's web site after the close (or, if you are carrying positions, mark all of them 'to market' at the end of every trading day) to enter an accurate 'Net Account Equity' figure into a spreadsheet. For multiple accounts / brokerages, simply add the account balances; or keep a curve for each account (and a 'rollup' curve).
There are many possible refinements to this, but the key idea is to plot your account value, marked-to-market if you carry positions overnight, every day after the market has closed and to plot / monitor this curve on a regular basis. Studying this curve daily is an essential psychological component of the EQT concept and is part of what makes it so surprisingly powerful, as explained below.
I recommend keeping the equity curve charted on a 30-day rolling basis. After updating the data, take five minutes to study the updated equity curve, which is essentially your trading performance, good or bad, plotted clearly on a chart. If you are interested in moving towards peak trading performance, then I recommend examining the chart carefully each time it is updated -- computing the slope; measuring the drawdowns, and in general lingering long enough to be sure the data you're looking at gets into your subconscious thinking. ...
Why can routinely keeping an equity curve and monitoring it closely make a difference in performance? There are a number of reasons, but I believe primarily it boils down to psychological feedback, on both the conscious and unconscious level.
You may notice as you start to use an equity curve that you feel under pressure to perform, and that you are less likely to take trading days off. Once you've acquired and mastered the key skills to trade successfully, with this kind of feedback you can push yourself as hard as you'd like.
... "
Equity Curve Trading
Equity Curve Trading:
"Equity Curve Trading
Author: Michael R. Bryant
Date: Unknown
Complexity: Moderate
A money management technique that can sometimes improve trading performance is to modify the position sizing based on crossovers of a moving average of the equity curve. The basic idea is to either trade more or fewer contracts when the equity curve crosses above or below its moving average.
There are at least two basic ways to implement this idea. One is to stop trading when the equity curve crosses above or below its moving average and to resume trading on a crossover in the opposite direction. This is the most basic and commonly used method. You would typically stop trading when the equity curve crosses below the moving average if your system or method tends to produce streaks of wins and losses, so that when it starts to lose, it's best to stop trading until it starts winning again."
2008년 6월 18일 수요일
Sensitivity, Specificity..
Sensitivity, Specificity..:
"Positive predictive value (양성예측도) Negative predictive value (음성예측도)
Odds ratio (교차비) Relative risk (상대위험도)"
cf. "모든 것은 기초부터 다져야 한다. 그러나 문제는 어디서부터가 기초인가 하는 것이다.
조금은 지난 얘기 이지만... 컴퓨터를 잘하는 사람에게 물어 본다. "컴퓨터 좀 배워보려고 하는데 어떻게 해야 하나요?" 뭔가 특별한 조언을 받기 위해서 또는 뭔가 빠르고 손쉬운 방법이 있을 것 같아서 기대를 가지고 질문을 하게 된다. 그러나 대답은 여지없이 "DOS부터 공부 하세요." 하는 수없이 DOS 책을 구입하여 한 페이지씩 읽어 보지만.. 결국 며칠 내에 포기하게 된다. ...
얼마전 1978년을 배경으로 하는 영화를 본 적이 있다. 고등학교의 수업시간 장면이 있었는데.. 영어 수업 시간이었다. 명사에는 5가지의 종류가 있는데.. 고유명사, 추상명사, 집합명사, 보통명사, 물질명사.. 그렇다. 나는 이렇게 영어를 배워 대학을 갔고, 의사가 되었다. 충분히 기초를 닦았고 또 열심히 하였다. 그러나 결과는 너무나 참담하다. 어쩌다가 외국인이라도 만나게 되면 침묵과 미소.. 그것이 전부이다.
내가 배운 영어의 기초에 침묵과 미소의 미덕이 있었던 것 같지는 않은데 말이다. ...
가장 중요하고 전반적인 개념에 대한 내용은 통계방법 선정법에서 다루었다.
혹시 이 홈페이지를 통하여 전반적인 통계의 개념을 잡고 자신의 연구에 적절한 방법을 적용하여 원하는 결과를 얻었다면, 그리고 무엇보다 통계에 대한 흥미가 생겼다면 좀 더 깊은 통계 분야에 대한 공부를 하여 실전을 위한 기초를 다지기 바란다. " 카톨릭 의대 방사선과학교실 중에서
margin of error
margin of error: Information and Much More from Answers.com
" ...
If the exact confidence intervals are used, then the margin of error takes into account both sampling error and non-sampling error. If an approximate confidence interval is used (for example, by assuming the distribution is normal and then modeling the confidence interval accordingly), then the margin of error may only take random sampling error into account. It does not represent other potential sources of error or bias such as a non-representative sample-design, poorly phrased questions, people lying or refusing to respond, the exclusion of people who could not be contacted, or miscounts and miscalculations. ..."
Predictive Value
Predictive Value: Definition and Much More from Answers.com:
"1. The extent to which a test predicts future performance accurately."
cf. Positive predictive value (양성예측도) Negative predictive value (음성예측도)
The Sharpe Ratio Can Oversimplify Risk
The Sharpe Ratio Can Oversimplify Risk:
"...
The Sharpe ratio is a good measure of risk for large, diversified, liquid investments, but for others, such as hedge funds, it can only be used as one of a number of risk/return measures.
Where it Doesn't Work Well
The problem with the Sharpe ratio is that it is accentuated by investments that don't have a normal distribution of returns. The best example of this is hedge funds. Many of them use dynamic trading strategies and options that give way to skewness and kurtosis in their distribution of returns. (For related reading, see A Brief History Of The Hedge Fund, Massive Hedge Fund Failures, Taking A Look Behind Hedge Funds and Losing The Amaranth Gamble.)
Many hedge fund strategies produce small positive returns with the occasional large negative return. For instance, a simple strategy of selling deep out-of-the-money options tends to collect small premiums and pay out nothing until the 'big one' hits. Until a big loss takes place, this strategy would show a very high Sharpe ratio. (For more insight, read Option Spread Strategies.)
..."
Bollinger bands
Bollinger bands: Definition and Much More from Answers.com:
"Bollinger Bands
Technical Analysis technique invented by John Bollinger that plots Standard Deviation levels above and below a moving average. This differs from a typical Momentum Oscillator, which plots fixed percentages above and below the moving average, creating 'envelopes' that represent the normal trading range of the security.
Since standard deviation measures Volatility, the Bollinger bands, typically based on a 20-day time span, expand and contract as the volatility of the price series changes. In volatile markets the bands widen and in calm markets they narrow. Both envelopes and Bollinger lines take their significance from the fact that prices normally stay within them and that when overzealous buyers and sellers push prices to the extremes they represent, reversals are likely to follow.
Steven B. Achelis, in his book Technical Analysis from A to Z, reports Mr. Bollinger's own interpretation of Bollinger bands: (1) sharp price changes tend to occur after the bands tighten, signifying less volatility; (2) when prices move outside the bands, a continuation of the current trend is implied; (3) bottoms and tops made outside the bands followed by bottoms and tops made inside the bands call for reversals in the trend; and (4) a move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band, a useful observation when projecting price targets."
overfitting
1. overfitting: Information and Much More from Answers.com:
"In statistics, overfitting is fitting a statistical model that has too many parameters. An absurd and false model may fit perfectly if the model has enough complexity by comparison to the amount of data available. Overfitting is generally recognized to be a violation of Occam's razor. When the degrees of freedom in parameter selection exceed the information content of the data, this leads to arbitrariness in the final (fitted) model parameters which reduces or destroys the ability of the model to generalize beyond the fitting data. ..."
2. 과다적합, 과잉맞춤(출처 하나: 데이터 마이닝의 기법), 과적합....
drawdown
1. "Drawdown is the measure of the decline from a historical peak in some variable (e.g., the variable of interest might be the cumulative profit since inception from the purchase of a share of common stock). Somewhat more formally, if X(t) is a random process [X(0)=0, t≥0], the drawdown at any time, T, is defined as
-Min[0, X(T)-Max[X(t) where ≤ t ≤ T]
In finance, the use of drawdown as an indicator of risk is particularly popular in the world of Commodity trading advisors with the derivation of three performance measures: the Calmar Ratio, the Sterling Ratio and the Burke Ratio. These measures can be considered as a modification of the Sharpe ratio in the sense that the numerator is always the excess of mean returns relatively to a risk-free rate while the standard deviation of returns in the denominator is replaced by other compilations of drawdown." drawdown: Information and Much More from Answers.com
2. "Drawdown: The peak-to-trough decline during a specific record period of an investment, fund or commodity. A drawdown is usually quoted as the percentage between the peak and the trough.
A drawdown is measured from the time a retrenchment begins to when a new high is reached. This method is used because a valley can't be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the smallest trough is recorded.Drawdowns help determine an investment's financial risk. Both the Calmar and Sterling ratios use this metric to compare a security's possible reward to its risk. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/drawdown.asp
Churning
"Churning :
1. An unethical practice employed by some brokers to increase their commissions by excessively trading in a client's account. This practice violates the NASD Fair Practice Rules. It is also referred to as 'churn and burn', 'twisting' and 'overtrading'.
2. A period of heavy trading with few sustained price trends and little movement in stock market indexes.
Investopedia says: Another negative result for the client is being stuck with higher tax bills."
When to Bluff and when to fold - poker article by Rory Monahan
"...
Bluffing is simple, right? All you have to do is convince the other players that you have the best hand, and get them to fold their hands. Well, now that you know that, you are ready to win thousands of dollars an hour playing Texas Hold 'Em...If ONLY it were that easy. In fact, bluffing is not even a skill It's an ART.
There are players that are very successful that never really master the art of bluffing, but you will never reach the "next level"unless you master the art of the bluff. Bluffing is the most powerful play in Texas Hold 'Em. It will give you complete control over the game, and allow you to win even when you catch bad cards. No matter who you are, or how talented and successful you are, you can strengthen your ability to bluff.
In Texas Hold 'Em, there are 4 Cardinal Rules of bluffing. If you follow these rules, you will see an immediate increase in your success in playing Texas Hold 'Em poker.
Cardinal Rule Of Bluffing No. 1
Calls and small raises are for wimps
I cannot begin to tell you how many times I have played hands where some amateur called me down the line and when he turned over scraps told me he was "bluffing."Of course, I didn't tell him that he was wasting his money right away, instead I let him lose the rest of his chips to me, and then I told him the truth. If you are someone who always seems to get caught on your bluffs, chances are that you simply don't bet or raise enough to make any difference. Think about it, if you have a lot of chips committed to a pot, are you going to fold to a tiny raise? Of course not, so if you don't raise enough, you are going to get called, and your are going to lose your bankroll.
... " When to Bluff and when to fold - poker article by Rory Monahan
local, local trader
1. "Investment Dictionary: Local
Traders on future exchanges who occasionally fill public orders, but mainly buy and sell for their own personal accounts.
Investopedia Says:
These people are almost identical to floor traders, but operate on different exchanges."
2. Financial & Investment Dictionary: Local
Member of a futures exchange who trades for his or her own account. The traders in a futures pit are composed of locals and employees of various brokerage firms. Locals initiate their own transactions on the floor of the exchange. Some, termed dual traders, also execute orders on behalf of customers.
local: Definition, Synonyms and Much More from Answers.com
3. " 나는 자신의 계좌를 갖고 트레이딩에 정규적으로 참여하는 트레이더의 한 부류인 이른바 “로컬 트레이더(local trader)”였다. 입회장에는 다른 종류의 트레이더들도 있었는데 거래 건마다 중개 수수료를 받고 고객을 위해 매매하는 중개인, 즉 브로커들이다. 이들 브로커들 역시 자신의 별도 계정으로 거래할 수도 있었는데, 소위 이중거래(dual trading)가 허용돼 있었기 때문이다; 그러나 브로커들은 로컬 트레이더들보다 본인의 거래 물량이 훨씬 작았다. 로컬 트레이더들은 여러 가지 유가증권 시장에서 흐름을 만드는 “시장조성자(market maker)”로서 거래소의 입회장에 쏟아져 나오는 매수주문과 매도주문이 함께 굴러가는 데 필요한 유동성 풀을 제공했다. 주식시장의 종목별 전문중개업자인 스페셜리스트들(specialists)이 그들의 매수와 매도로 특정 주식 종목이나 종목들의 거래가 굴러가도록 떠받치는 것과는 달리, 우리들은 어느 특정 선물계약을 떠받치는 일에 구속되어 있지 않았다. 우리는 입회장을 거닐며 어느 거래장에서라도 거래에 참여할 수 있었다. 스페셜리스트들과 다른 또 하나는 우리가 거래소와 계약 관계에 있지 않았다는 것이다. 우리는 우리 자신의 자본금으로 거래했고 또 투기적 거래에 참여했다.
물어볼 필요도 없이 선물 트레이더들은 투기한다. 사실, 선물계약은 투기거래 없이는 작동할 수 없다. 하나의 선물계약은 보험증권과 마찬가지로 위험을 관리하는 도구다. 선물계약이라는 개념은 꽤 오래된 것이다. 나는 강연할 때 성서에 나오는 시대에 조셉이 어떻게 매입헤지를 시도했는지를 즐겨 언급하곤 했다. 조셉은 이집트 왕, 파라오를 설득하여 7년간의 풍년 동안에 곡물을 매입해서 7년간의 흉년에 사용하기 위해 비축하도록 했다. 미국의 역사에서 농민들과 가공업자들은 흉작이나 상품가격 상승, 혹은 공급과잉기의 가격 하락에 대비하기 위해 선물계약을 폭넓게 활용됐다. 1972년 금융선물이 도입된 이래 자금관리자들과 기업의 재무담당자들 역시 금융시장에 내재하는 위험에 대비하고 금리 변동 위험이나 환율 변동 위험, 혹은 자산과 부채 관리의 보조 수단으로서 금융선물 계약을 활용했다. 그리고 투기자들은 필요한 유동성을 공급하여, 매수자와 매도자를 연결시키는 시장의 경쟁 장치가 작동하도록 하는 윤활유 역할은 한다. 투기자들이 없으면 헤저들(hedgers)은 그들이 직면한 내재적 위험을 받아줄 사람을 찾을 수 없게 될 것이다.
..." 《영원한 트레이더: 리오 멜라메드》중에서
2008년 6월 17일 화요일
2003 Mutual-fund scandal
"...
Spitzer investigation
On September 3, 2003, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer announced the issuance of a complaint against New Jersey hedge fund company Canary Capital Partners LLC, charging that they had engaged in 'late trading' in collusion with Bank of America's Nations Funds. Bank of America is charged with permitting Canary to purchase mutual fund shares, after the markets had closed, at the closing price for that day. Spitzer's investigation was initiated after his office received a ten-minute June 2003 phone call from a Wall Street worker alerting them to an instance of the late trading problem.
'Late trading'
Late trading is illegal under New York's Martin Act and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations due to the unfair advantage the late trader gains over other traders. In the United States, mutual fund prices are set once daily at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. Late trading occurs when traders are allowed to purchase fund shares after 4:00 p.m. at that day's closing price. Under law, most mutual fund trades received after 4:00 p.m. must be executed at the following day's closing price.
Canary Capital settled the complaint for US$40 million, while neither admitting nor denying guilt in the matter. The Bank of America stated that it would compensate its mutual fund shareholders for losses incurred by way of the illegal transactions.
..." 2003 Mutual-fund scandal: Information and Much More from Answers.com
late trading
" ...
In the mutual fund context, late trading involves placing orders for mutual fund shares after the close of the stock market (4:00 p.m for the New York Stock Exchange), but still getting that day's closing price, rather than the next day's closing price (the price of mutual funds is usually set only once per day, so intra-day prices are not applicable). In the United States this practice is illegal under SEC rules but many mutual fund managers appear to have allowed exceptions for certain hedge funds and other favored investors who were able to obtain that day's price, notwithstanding that their orders were received after-hours. ... " late trading: Information and Much More from Answers.com
Getting a handle on true performance
By Kestner, Lars N.
Publication: Futures (Cedar Falls, Iowa)
Date: Monday, January 1 1996
" ...
Consider two managers trading the same system and markets, except that manager A trades twice as large as manager B. Consequently manager A's average return is twice as large. Is manager A a better manager because of higher average returns? Not necessarily. Managers have different trading styles. Some trade large positions relative to the size of funds under management, while others prefer to keep returns and risk at lower levels by holding smaller positions. Performance ratios attempt to place all managers on a level playing field by adjusting returns for risk. The return part of the calculation is generally agreed upon, but defining risk is another matter. Each ratio divides return by its own measure of risk to arrive at a standardized value for comparing traders.
Look Sharpe. The most popular ratio for evaluating performance is the Sharpe ratio, a measure created by Nobel-laureate William Sharpe. The Sharpe ratio is composed of two statistical measures: average return and standard deviation. First, monthly returns are adjusted by subtracting the monthly return of a risk-free asset, such as Treasury bills, from the total return. If a manager returned 5% but 1% came from posting T-bills as margin, then the adjusted monthly return would be 4%. (This is logical because the return from T-bills is not dependent on the manager's skill.)
Return in the Sharpe ratio is defined as the average adjusted monthly return; risk is defined as the standard deviation of corrected monthly returns. Standard deviation measures how close or far returns vary from the average. Returns dispersed closer to the average have a lower standard deviation and are considered less risky than returns varying further from the average.
To demonstrate this principle, consider two managers. Manager A has 30 months of + 15% returns and 30 months of -10% returns, while manager B returns +5% for 30 months and 0% the other 30 months. Both managers have identical average returns, but manager A's returns show higher dispersion around the average than manager B's returns. As a result, manager A has a standard deviation of 13% while manager B has a standard deviation of 2.5%. Although both managers return 2.5% per month, manager B accomplishes the feat with much less risk as measured by standard deviation. As a result, manager B will have a higher Sharpe ratio (2.5%/2.5% = 1.0 ) than manager A (2.5%/13% = 0.19). Typically, a Sharpe ratio is calculated using three or five years of monthly data.
The Sharpe ratio is not without faults. Critics have argued that the ratio does not accurately reflect performance when autocorrelation exists in returns. Positive autocorrelation occurs when values are not independent from one period to the next, for example, when high returns one month are generally followed by high returns the next month, or when low returns are followed by low returns. Similarly, if high returns are followed by low returns, and low returns by high, then negative autocorrelation exists.
To put this into perspective, take the example of managers C and D. Both have 30 months of +10% returns and 30 months of -5% returns. The only difference is the timing of returns. Manager C has 30 consecutive returns of +10% followed by 30 returns of -5%. Manager D's returns alternate: One period is +10%, the next is -5%, followed by +10%, and so forth. Manager C possesses significant positive autocorrelation while manager D possesses significant negative correlation. Although both have equal Sharpe ratios, manager D's returns are more consistent than manager C's and therefore more likely to be profitable in the future (see "A tale of two managers," left).
Maximum drawdown is the largest percentage retracement from the previous peak in equity. Suppose a manager returns an average of 20% annually for the past three years. In year one the maximum drawdown was 15%, in year two it was 15% and in year three there was no drawdown. Risk as measured by the Sterling ratio would be ((15+15+0)/3) + 10 = 20%. The corresponding Sterling ratio is 20%/20% = 1.0.
..."
Getting a handle on true performance. Science & Technology > Mathematics from AllBusiness.com
Hedge Funds: Past, Present, and Future
Hedge Funds: Past, Present, and Future
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 21, Number 2—Spring 2007
René M. Stulz
Hedge funds often make headlines because of spectacular losses or spectaculargains. In September 2006, a large hedge fund, Amaranth, reportedlosses of more than $6 billion apparently incurred in only onemonth, representing a negative return over that month of roughly 66 percent.Earlier in the year, newspapers focused on the $1.4 billion compensation in 2005of hedge fund manager Boone Pickens and the 650 percent return that year of hisBP Capital Commodity Fund (Anderson, 2006b). The importance of hedge fundsin the daily life of financial markets does not make the same headlines, but hedgefunds now account for close to half the trading on the New York and London stockexchanges (Anderson, 2006a).Chances are that you personally cannot invest in a hedge fund. Most U.S.investors cannot. Hedge funds are mostly unregulated. These funds can only issuesecurities privately. Their investors have to be individuals or institutions who meetrequirements set out by the Securities and Exchange Commission, ensuring thatthe investors are knowledgeable and can bear a significant loss. Most likely, however,you personally can invest in mutual funds, which are heavily regulated in howthey can invest their funds, how their managers can be paid, how they are governed,how they can charge investors for their services, and so on. ... " Hedge Funds: Past, Present, and Future
Sortino ratio
"A ratio developed by Frank A. Sortino to differentiate between good and bad volatility in the Sharpe ratio. This differentiation of upwards and downwards volatility allows the calculation to provide a risk-adjusted measure of a security or fund's performance without penalizing it for upward price changes. It it is calculated as follows:
..." Sortino ratio: Definition and Much More from Answers.com
earnings yield
"Earnings yield is the inverse of the price-earnings ratio. Basically, it's the amount of earnings you buy for every dollar worth of stock... "
earnings yield: Definition and Much More from Answers.com
curve fitting
"Curve fitting:
A procedure in which the basic problem is to pass a curve through a set of points, representing experimental data, in such a way that the curve shows as well as possible the relationship between the two quantities plotted. It is always possible to pass some smooth curve through all the points plotted, but since there is assumed to be some experimental error present, such a procedure would ordinarily not be desirable. See also Interpolation.
The first task in curve fitting is to decide (1) how many degrees of freedom (number of unspecified parameters, or independent variables) should be allowed in fitting the points, and (2) what the general nature of the curve should be. Since there is no known way of answering these questions in a completely objective way, curve fitting remains something of an art. It is clear, however, ..."
curve fitting: Definition and Much More from Answers.com
Monte Carlo method
1. "Monte Carlo Simulation :
A problem solving technique used to approximate the probability of certain outcomes by running multiple trial runs, called simulations, using random variables.
... "
몬테카를로법의 역사는 멀게는 확률론의 개척자들이었던 도박사들이 여러 번의 임의추출을 바탕으로 특정한 카드 조합이 나올 확률을 직접 계산했던 중세까지 거슬러올라갈 수 있습니다만, 진정한 의미에서의 몬테카를로법을 처음 사용한 사람은 현대 컴퓨터 구조의 완성자이기도 한 천재 수학자 폰 노이만으로, 그가 참여했던 맨해튼 프로젝트 (미국의 원자폭탄 개발 계획)에서 중성자 확산 시뮬레이션에 처음 사용한 것으로 알려져 있습니다
몬테카를로법은, 특성상 통계자료가 많을수록, 또 입력값의 분포가 고를수록 결과의 정밀성이 보장된다는 것을 알 수 있습니다. 때문에 컴퓨터를 이용하여 시뮬레이션이 행해집니다.
몬테카를로법의 특징으로는, 우선 적용하기 쉽다는 점이 있습니다. 실제로 파이의 값을 정확히 구하기 위해서는 무한급수에 관한 지식과 오차범위에 관한 지식 등 다양한 배경 지식을 바탕으로 올바른 알고리즘을 만들어 그 값을 계산해야 하지만, 몬테카를로법은 그런 모든 절차와 관계없이 짧은 컴퓨터 프로그램 몇줄만으로 쉽게, 비교적 정확한 수치를 얻을 수 있습니다.
이런 장점은 이론적 배경만으로는 계산하기 어려운 수치들 - 예를 들면 복잡한 형태를 가진 표면에 빛을 비추었을 때 반사광의 분포, 복잡한 분자계의 화학적 특성 분석, 핵융합로에서 중성자 빔이 반응에 미치는 영향 등 - 을 직접 구할 필요가 있을 때 빛을 발합니다. 때문에 컴퓨터를 이용한 분석이 발달한 최근에는 거의 모든 과학과 공학 분야에 걸쳐 몬테카를로법이 광범위하게 사용되고 있습니다.
몬테카를로법을 통한 실험을 설계할 때는, 입력값의 확률분포와 실험의 수학적 모델링이 정확하지 않으면 몬테카를로 방법은 무의미하다는 점에 주의하여야 하며, 난수의 분포가 분석에 큰 영향을 미치므로 필요한 난수의 범위와 분포에 따른 올바른 난수 생성 함수에도 주의를 기울여야 합니다. [1]
달이 좋았던 이유
우연히 쳐다본 하늘,
밤 하늘의 달이 좋았다.
희뿌연 달무리를 차고 앉은 달 모습이
내 마음을 조롱하는듯 여러 개로 보이지만,
던져버린 내 안경을 무시해도 좋다는듯
달무리와 달은 서로 어울려 하나였다.
고개를 들어 가만히 그 달을 쳐다본다.
달 하나, 나 하나
달 둘, 나 하나
달 셋, 나 하나
...
내 시각에 투영된 달의 모습은 보기에 따라 여러 윤곽일지언정
달과 마주한 나는, 그 달과 시선을 마주하는 나는,
바로 이 한 사람, 나다.
드넓은 대지의 작은 이 한 곳에 자리했지만,
그렇게 보는 달이
나만 내려다보는 것 같은 이유는
달무리를 아울러 떠 있는 그 달을 보는 이가
"지금" 나밖에 없기 때문일 거야
2008년 6월 13일 금요일
Sharpe ratio
"A ratio developed by Nobel Laureate William F. Sharpe to measure risk-adjusted performance. It is calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate from the rate of return for a portfolio and dividing the result by the standard deviation of the portfolio returns.
..." Sharpe ratio: Definition and Much More from Answers.com
- Understanding The Sharpe Ratio (Investopedia)
Understanding Volatility Measurements
"When considering a fund's volatility, an investor may find it difficult to decide which fund will provide the optimal risk-reward combination. Many websites provide various volatility measures for mutual funds free of charge; however, it can be hard to know not only what the figures mean but also how to analyze them. Furthermore, the relationship between these figures is not always obvious. Read on to learn about the four most common volatility measures and how they're applied in the type of risk analysis that is based on modern portfolio theory.
... " Understanding Volatility Measurements
2008년 6월 12일 목요일
Eurodollar and its futures contract
"Eurodollar Futures Contract
The Eurodollar futures contract refers to the financial futures contract based upon these deposits, traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in Chicago. Each CME Eurodollar futures contract has a notional or 'face value' of $1,000,000, though the leverage used in futures allows one contract to be traded with a margin of just hundreds of dollars. Trading in Eurodollar futures is extensive, thus offering uniquely deep liquidity. Prices are quite responsive to Fed policy, inflation, and other economic indicators.
CME Eurodollar futures prices are determined by the market’s forecast for the delivery month of the 3-month USD LIBOR interest rate. The futures prices are derived by subtracting that implied interest rate (yield) from 100.00. For instance, an anticipated interest rate of 5.00 percent will translate to a futures price of 95.00. However, the price in practice, the settlement price, is higher than the quoted price to reflect a lower return for 3 months instead of one year. This 95 dollar future, is actually traded at 98.75 (100-5.00/4). And one future contract is traded at $987,500. On the expiry day of a contract, the contract is valued using the current fixing of 3-month LIBOR.
..." Eurodollar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2008년 6월 11일 수요일
Average True Range (ATR) - StockCharts.com
"Developed by J. Welles Wilder and introduced in his book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (1978), the Average True Range (ATR) indicator measures a security's volatility. As such, the indicator does not provide an indication of price direction or duration, simply the degree of price movement or volatility.
As with most of his indicators, Wilder designed ATR with commodities and daily prices in mind. In 1978, commodities were frequently more volatile than stocks. They were (and still are) often subject to gaps and limit moves. (A limit move occurs when a commodity opens up or down its maximum allowed move and does not trade again until the next session. The resulting bar or candlestick would simply be a small dash.) In order to accurately reflect the volatility associated with commodities, Wilder sought to account for gaps, limit moves, and small high-low ranges in his calculations. A volatility formula based on only the high-low range would fail to capture the actual volatility created by the gap or limit move.
... " Average True Range (ATR) - StockCharts.com
개인으로 보는 금융시장의 역사: 시장을 만든 미국의 100대 인물
1. 금융시장을 시험하는 폰지의 망령
2006년 제이유그룹 사기 사건에서 당시 검찰 추산으로 투자자들 수십만 명이 약 4조 5천억 원의 피해를 입었던 것으로 알려져 있다. “원금보다 더 많은 수당”을 준다고 투자자들을 현혹했던 이 사기 수법은, 사실 1920년대 미국에서 찰스 폰지(Charles Ponzi)가 선보였던 고전적인 사기 수법의 변종에 불과하다. 폰지가 “90일에 100 퍼센트 이자”를 주겠다면서 외환거래와 국제 우표교환에 투자하는 복잡한 금융거래로 사기를 위장했던 것에 비하면, 제이유그룹의 속임수는 사기라고 하기에는 ‘성의가 부족한’ 조악한 사기 수법이다. 21세기에 들어선 지금, 이 노골적인 속임수에 1920년대 미국인들보다 더 많은 한국인들이 더 많은 돈을 털렸다! 폰지가 지하에서 이 소식을 들었다면, 아마도 100년 뒤에 한국에서 태어나지 못한 것을 몹시 아쉬워했을 것이다.
2. 개인의 활동으로 본 금융시장의 탄생
켄 피셔(Kenneth L. Fisher)의 《시장을 뒤흔든 100명의 거인들One Hundred Minds That Made The Market》은 지금의 금융시장은 절대로 당연한 것이 아니며, 시장을 주도적으로 만들어갔던 개인들이 이룬 결실로 이해한다. 이 책은 미국에 산업혁명이 도입되기 전 유럽 로스차일드 가문으로부터 시작해 1980년대에 이르기까지 약 200년에 걸쳐 금융시장에서 주도적으로 활동하며 큰 영향을 미쳤던 인물들에 대한 이야기다. 이들 각 인물의 이야기를 통해 지은이는 미국에서 금융시장이 탄생하는 과정을 보여준다. 무소불위의 힘과 자금을 휘두르며 시장의 기틀을 놓았던 공룡 같은 거인들, 산업혁명에 돈줄을 대며 자본을 배분하는 막강한 힘을 행사했던 투자은행가들, 새로운 기법을 도입해 시장을 발전시켰던 혁신가들을 비롯해, 시장을 주무르고 세상을 놀라게 했던 대단한 사기범과 투기꾼 등 11개 부류로 총 100명의 인물이 등장한다.
3. 다양한 삶을 통해 드러나는 시장의 모습, 그리고 그들이 남긴 교훈들
일례로, 거대한 채무로 피라미드를 쌓아올린 대표 인물의 하나로 새뮤얼 인설(Samuel Insull)이 등장한다. 그는 1920년대에 제너럴일렉트릭(GE)의 모태였던 전력 회사를 세우면서, 채무를 동원해 거대한 지주회사 피라미드를 만들었던 인물이다. 1930년대 대공황의 여파로 이 피라미드가 무너질 때 인설은 투자자들에게 수백만 달러의 피해를 입히고 사기꾼의 오명을 뒤집어썼다. 그가 이렇게 무너진 이유가 과도한 채무도 있었지만, 그보다는 기세등등한 J.P. 모건의 월스트리트를 경멸했기 때문이라는, 지은이의 사건 구성은 아주 흥미롭다. 실제로 월스트리트 은행들은 주가 하락기에 공매도 공격에 나서서 인설을 무너뜨렸고, J.P. 모건(2세)은 그의 피라미드 제국을 통째로 집어삼킨 뒤 지금의 GE로 다시 만들었다. 인설이라는 인물을 두고 지은이가 전하는 교훈은 사업하는 사람이라면 모두 귀담아들어야 할 진지하고도 심각한 내용이다(본서의 7장).
4. 금융시장을 낳았던 또 하나의 춘추전국 시대
지은이는 금융시장이 미국에서 가장 발달했고 또 가장 많은 금융혁신이 가장 먼저 도입된 이유로 미국의 “문화 부재un-culture”를 들고 있다. 다양한 곳에서 모여든 이민자들 사이에 지배적인 공통 문화가 없었다는 역사가 자본주의와 자본시장에 비옥한 토양이 됐다는 해석이다. 충분히 수긍이 가는 시각이다. 중국에서 주나라 말기에 곳곳에서 제후들이 군립했던 춘추전국 시대는 백성들이 시달렸던 난세였던 것만은 분명하지만, 동시에 제후들마다 부국강병의 전략과 방법론을 찾느라, 제자백가(諸子百家)의 풍요로운 ‘사상의 시장’이 형성됐던 시기이기도 했기 때문이다. 자본주의와 금융시장이 형성되는 시기도 대단한 난세였다. 춘추전국 시대에는 제후들마다 각종 전략을 기용해 군사를 움직이며 ‘땅 따먹기’를 했다. 금융시장의 형성기에는 시장을 움직이고 또 새로 만들었던 개인들이 ‘돈 따먹기’를 했다. 이 책에 등장하는 인물들의 활동이 집중된 시기는 미국 자본주의가 틀을 잡아가는 19세기 후반부터 20세기 초반이다. 바로 미국이 산업혁명을 겪었던 제2차 산업혁명기이고, “날강도 귀족”으로 불렸던 악덕 자본가들이 판을 쳤던 시기이기도 하다.
5. “과거에서 교훈을 얻지 못하는 사람들은 과거를 되풀이한다”
마지막으로, 이 100대 인물을 통해 지은이가 전하려는 메시지는 많지만, 지은이가 가장 전하고 싶어하는 집약적인 주장을 전하는 게 옮긴이의 의무라고 여긴다. 그 하나는 “과거에서 교훈을 얻지 못하는 사람들은 과거를 되풀이한다”는 것이다. 초두에 언급했던 제이유그룹 사기를 그 예로 들 수 있겠다. 다른 하나는, 투기가 좋든 싫든 산업을 가동하려면 금융시장이 필요하고, 금융시장을 유지하려면, 투기를 허용하는 환경이 필요하다는 주장이다. 이 말은 잘 새겨들어야 할 대목이다. 무지막지한 투기가 횡행하는 것도 문제이지만, 무지막지하게 투기를 금지하는 것도 문제이며, 자본주의 원리로 볼 때는 후자가 더 심각한 폐해를 낳을 수도 있다는 인식이다. 물론 이 해석은 옮긴이의 해석이지만, 독자들은 다양한 시대와 환경에서 이러한 저자의 시각을 확인할 수 있을 것이다. 미국이 독립전쟁을 치르는 동안 남발했던 대륙달러Continental dollar의 화폐 가치가 극도로 폭락했고 미국 정부의 신용은 바닥에 떨어졌었다. 오죽하면 “대륙달러만큼이나 값어치가 없다”는 말이 생겨났다고 한다. 미국 최초로 시도된 중앙은행이었던 미합중국은행Bank of the United States이 이런 미국 정부의 신용을 회복하기 위해 대륙달려의 가치를 환불해주었던 시도가 미국 최초의 투기를 일으켰고, 이것이 곧 미국 금융시장의 근원적인 출발점이었다는 지은이의 지적은 꼭 투기를 옹호하려는 것은 아니었다고 해도, 그냥 지나치기 어려운 자본주의 역사의 아이러니다.
2008년 6월 3일 화요일
Private Market Value (PMV): Definition
"Aggregate market value of a company if each of its parts operated independently and had its own stock price. Also called 'breakup value(분할가치)' or 'takeover value(인수가치)'. Analysts look for high PMV in relation to market value to identify bargains and potential Target Companies.
- Liquidating Value(청산가치), which excludes Going Concern Value(계속기업가치) and
- Book Value(장부가치) which is an accounting concept."
출처: Private Market Value (PMV): Definition and Much More from Answers.com
breakup value(출처: Investopedia): The sum-of-parts value of a publicly traded company. This value is derived by analyzing each business segment of a company independently. This is usually applied to large cap stocks that are likely to operate in several different markets or industries. A breakup value analysis may be brought about by investors if the market cap of the stock is less than the breakup value for a prolonged period of time.
Investopedia Says:If a company is performing poorly, or the stock has not kept up to the perceived level of "full value", investors may call for the company to be split apart, with proceeds returned to investors as cash, stock in spun-off companies, or a combination of both.Investors can also calculate a breakup value on a perfectly healthy company as a way to determine a potential floor for the stock, or a potential entry point for a prospective buyer. In order to accurately calculate a company's breakup value, detailed data is needed on the revenue, earnings and cash flows for each distinct operating unit of the company. From there, relative valuations based on publicly-traded industry peers can help to derive a value for the segment as a spun off stock.
"Private Market Value (PMV) : 여러 사업부문을 독립적으로 영위하고 있는 대상기업에 대해 각 사업부문별로 가치를 산정하여 합산한 기업가치를 말한다. 만일 특정기업의 주식가치가 PMV보다 낮을 경우에는 해체인수 혹은 자발적 분리정리를 하는 대상이 된다."
출처: M&A 용어집(Daniel's library)
경제사로 본 자본주의의형성과 발전(한국개발연구원-클릭경제교육)
경제사로 본 자본주의의형성과 발전
Ⅰ. 경제사의 개념
Ⅱ. 경제사의 연구방법
Ⅲ. 산업혁명
Ⅳ. 대공황
노택선 저, 한국개발연구원-클릭경제교육
2008년 6월 2일 월요일
The Constitutional Creation of a Common Currency in the U.S. 1748-1811: Monetary Stabilization Versus Merchant Rent Seeking
" ...
During the revolution, the Articles of Confederation–-the first U.S. government-–allowed both individual states and the Continental Congress to issue their own paper money. Beginning in 1775 the Continental Congress issued bills of credit-– Continental dollars-–that depreciated to zero by April of 1781 and ceased thereafter to circulate. Each of the 13 states also issued their own paper currencies that, while also depreciating, held their value to a greater extent than did the Continental dollar.
After hostilities ended, states began to levy substantial taxes to redeem rapidly the bills of credit they had issued during the revolution. The resulting sharp monetary contraction produced substantial price deflation. The scarcity of a circulating medium became so acute that a few states resorted to accepting farm produce and land claims as tender for public debts. After the Treaty of Paris, 7 of the 13 states (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and South Carolina in 1785; Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, and Georgia in 1786) returned to issuing their own pound-denominated paper money, usable – as during the colonialperiod – to pay taxes levied and land mortgages held by the issuing state. In addition, states, such as Maryland and Massachusetts, were debating whether to issue new bills of credit, but failed to enact such legislation before the new Constitution banned such emissions. These states were clearly engaged in active monetary policy intended to affect their state’s economy. By replacing old bills issued during the revolution that were now being rapidly taxed out of circulation with new issues, these states ameliorated the circulating-medium scarcity within their borders. States that refrained from such action experienced greater deflation and the political unrest it spawned, such as Shay’s Rebellionin Massachusetts early in 1787.
After the complete collapse of the Continental dollar, the Continental Congress turned to Robert Morris to restore the confederation’s finances. Morris opened the Bank of North America (BNA hereafter) in 1782. The bank, headquarteredin Philadelphia, was intended to be the federal government’s bank with branches throughout the states. It accepted private and federal government deposits of specie, kept accounts in dollar units, and issued dollar-denominated bank notes as claims against deposits and as loans both to the federal government and to private citizens. Morris and Congress asked the states not to permit other banks to be established during the war, and asked the states to accept BNA bank notes in payment for each state’s taxes and then to remit these notes to the U.S. Treasury to cover payments each state owed the federal government.The bank notes were intended to be the circulating medium for the nation. Only Connecticut, however, accepted BNA bank notes for payment of its taxes.
In 1787 a Constitutional Convention was held in Philadelphia. This Convention crafted a new U.S. Constitution to replace the Articles of Confederation. In Article I, Section 10, Clause 1, this new Constitution stated: “No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bills of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contract, or grant any Title of Nobility.”
This clause created a currency union within the United States. After 1787 states could not issue new bills of credit. Outstanding state bills could continue to circulate until they were redeemed and destroyed by their respective states.Though not explicitly stating so, the U.S. Constitution also forbade the federal government from issuing bills of credit. At the Convention, the Constitution’s construction was understood to be such that any powers not explicitly granted to the federal government were denied to the federal government, and any powers not explicitly denied the states were granted to the states. The proposal to allow the federal government to emit bills of credit by inserting such a clause into the Constitution was voted down by the Convention delegates. In 1791 Congress chartered the First Bank of the U.S. (FBUS hereafter). This bank issued dollar-denominated bank notes and, under Alexander Hamilton’s guidance, tried to do what Morris had attempted to have his BNA do, but on a much larger scale, namely, make FBUS bank notes the chief circulating medium of the nation. While unconstitutional in terms of how the Constitution was designed by founders such as James Madison, the FBUS was deemed constitutional (but not without considerable and continuing controversy) and saved from President Washington’s veto under the aegis of Hamilton’s reinterpretation of the Constitution as rendering “implied powers” to the federal government. State-chartered banks, numbering 28 by 1800, also issued dollar denominated bank notes, backed by fractional reserves in specie, which circulated as a medium of exchange along side BNA and FBUS bank notes and specie coinage. In 1792 Congress passed the Mint Act, which officially fixed the weight and fineness of the U.S. specie dollar, thus legally distinguishing it from the Spanish dollar. The U.S. Mint did not coin U.S. dollars in any quantity until after mid-1794.
In summary, the U.S. Constitution legally forced a transition in the circulating medium of exchange. It led not only to a common monetary unit of account within the U.S. (the U.S. dollar), but also to a transformation of the monetary system. Prior to its adoption, the monetary system consisted of specie (foreign coins) and individual colony/state-issued pound-denominated bills of credit backed by the issuing state’s future taxes and publicly-held land mortgages. These bills of credit circulated at market-determined rates of exchange with one another and with specie currencies. After the adoption of the U.S.Constitution, the monetary system was transformed into one consisting of U.S. dollar and foreign specie coinage, and a plethora of federal- and state-chartered bank-issued U.S. dollar-denominated bank notes backed by fractional reservesin specie. While bank notes could be exchanged at face value for specie at the bank of issue, except during liquidity crises, elsewhere they circulated at market-determined discounts off their face value. Therefore, the reduction in transactioncosts and exchange-rate risks associated with moving to a single currency were not as great as is commonly assumed. Constitutionally, bank notes could not be declared legal tender for all debts, though governments could make them defacto legal tender for public debts by accepting them in payment for taxes.
..."
The Constitutional Creation of a Common Currency in the U.S. 1748-1811: Monetary Stabilization Versus Merchant Rent Seeking, by Farley Grubb,
Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Alfred Lerner College of Business & Economics, University of Delaware, Working Paper No. 2004-07,
Hamilton, Madison and the Restoration of United States Credit
Abstract:
Opponents charged that Hamilton's plan to refinance the federal government's debtgenerated "enormous profits" for undeserving speculators. In a real options approach to valuingthe defaulted debt, the data are consistent with the view that price fluctuations were responses tosurprises in price-relevant information. Speculators apparently paid fair-market prices and thusdid not make abnormal profits after taking account of the uncertainty about when, if ever, debtwould be redeemed and how much would be paid per dollar of face value.
Hamilton, Madison and the Restoration of United States Credit:An Option Approach to Defaulted Government Debt, by Richard J. Sweeney, McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University
Continental Dollar
"The Continental was the name of a paper currency issued by several American Colonies, as well as by the Continental Congress, after the Revolutionary War began in 1775. With no solid backing and being easily counterfeited, the continentals quickly lost their value, giving voice to the phrase 'not worth a continental'.
..." Continental: Information and Much More from Answers.com
"... Washington faced a bookkeeping nightmare. Each state issued paper money which also circulated in neighboring states at varying rates. Then there was Continental paper currency backed by nothing but a pittance of funds in the treasury. As the Revolution dragged on, all paper money lost value — and inflation skyrocketed. Washington began his accounts with Pennsylvania money, then switched to that of New York while fighting in New England, and finally to Continental dollars. After the war, before Congress would accept his bills, Washington had to arrive at a bottom line taking into account years of devaluation and inflation. No doubt he lost money. But then his soldiers had to threaten more than one revolt just to receive any back pay — in nearly worthless paper money. Franklin, in one of his less charitable comments, called the financial chaos a tax to pay for the Revolution.
... " "Following the Money" By Carl G. Karsch
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