[발췌] About CFETS RMB Index

자료 1: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-14/china-s-new-yuan-index-here-s-what-the-market-needs-to-know


※ 발췌(excerpt):

The CFETS RMB Index will measure the yuan’s performance against a basket of 13 currencies, with weightings based mainly on international trade, according to the PBOC. The measure has an end-2014 level of 100 as its base level and will be published regularly, it said, without providing details of frequency.

The dollar has the largest weighting with 26.4 percent, followed by the euro and the yen with 21.4 percent and 14.7 percent, respectively. The measure also includes the currencies of Hong Kong, the U.K., Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland, Canada, Malaysia, Russia and Thailand. ( ... )

Why now?

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise U.S. interest rates this week for the first time since 2006, a move that’s forecast to spur further gains in the greenback against the currencies of developing nations. The PBOC’s moves are being seen as part of efforts to ease concern about yuan depreciation and prepare the market for further weakness.

... "The PBOC is clearly preparing the market to interpret a weaker yuan versus the dollar not being devaluation."

Yuan Implications?
It signals further depreciation against the greenback, according to yuan watchers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., DBS Bank Ltd. and Daiwa Capital Markets. The PBOC statement is official confirmation that the currency is no longer pegged to the dollar, according to Daiwa, which has the most bearish view on the yuan with a forecast of a 14 percent decline to 7.50 versus the U.S. currency by end-2016. Goldman sees a drop to 6.60, which compares with the current spot rate of 6.4585 in Shanghai.

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